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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
     
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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here comes Hillary....
it looks like she will be a major storm spinning off cabo in the about 4 days. hopefully, she'll push up enough warm water that the tuna will arrive.
32 days and a wakeup. that's 32 days to make and remake my plans, so many contingencies.... surf or fish or both?
here she comes:
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Russ
Elite Nomad
    
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Russ
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forecast 40% chance of developing now
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
     
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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she's gonna be a biggie, by far the strongest yet.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
     
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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wow! model now shows a brush with cabo to the west. still a week out, and not very accurate that far out, but keep your eyes peeled to the south.....
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Russ
Elite Nomad
    
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
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I'm not sure how big she's gonna be but she's gathering her forces. Now we wait to and what actual she's gonna do.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO
MEXICO. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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landyacht318
Nomad

Posts: 247
Registered: 7-28-2007
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New tropical activity
Just a heads up.
Invest 96. All computer models have this becoming a hurricane by day 5 and located south of CSL

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JESSE
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Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
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Its about time, theres been very little activiy in the pacific this year, and we need rain.
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Katiejay99
Nomad

Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: it is what it is
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We sure do Jesse. Hopefully we'll get lots of rain and little on the heavy wind side.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
      
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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Is this thing moving slowly? It's still a thousand miles below Cabo.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
    
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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It's still very early to say much in my opinion. We've seen these predictions before and sometimes they peter out, sometimes, NOT. But keep an eye on
it and do a little prep just in case. Maybe by weeks end we'll have a clear idea what she's about.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2011
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
     
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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latest model run shows it getting to 115w and 18n then turning "right" towards cabo. major storm coming. like i said a week out is too far for these
models to grasp, but be warned, she's coming and she's gonna be a blowhard....
all eyes to the south!
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MMc
Super Nomad
  
Posts: 1679
Registered: 6-29-2011
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Mood: Current
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Woody,
When do you go south?
Big south, pushing tuna, warm water with a swell.
Longboards at razors would be fun to watch.   
Yellowtail and butts from the beach  
Baja beach time     
Hope springs eternal!!!
I know your stoke.
MMc
"Never teach a pig to sing it frustrates you and annoys the pig" - W.C.Fields
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
     
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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not this storm. 29 days and a 3am wakeup!
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Russ
Elite Nomad
    
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Quote: | Originally posted by woody with a view
not this storm. 29 days and a 3am wakeup! |
Roads should be all cleaned by then
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
     
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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BFS is gonna be happy.....
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BigWooo
Senior Nomad
 
Posts: 579
Registered: 1-2-2007
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THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/4. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE TO INCREASE.
If that scenario plays out, the ridge will most likely keep the hurricane well away from Baja, and a faster, more westerly track will decrease the
probablility of good waves for the west coast. Darn.
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BFS
Senior Nomad
 
Posts: 520
Registered: 9-28-2006
Location: Todos Santos
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no tanto
Hillary is looking ideal at this stage. Especially that 8mph forward motion, thats good, and I normally would be running to get ready, but the last
storm took care of my "running" for awhile...so not so happy.
[Edited on 9-21-2011 by BFS]
[Edited on 9-21-2011 by BFS]
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DianaT
Select Nomad
     
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
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Quote: | Originally posted by BFS
Hillary is looking ideal at this stage. Especially that 8mph forward motion, thats good, and I normally would be running to get ready, but the last
storm took care of my "running" for awhile...so not so happy.
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OUCH   
Hope you are healing well.
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Bill Collector
Nomad

Posts: 374
Registered: 1-13-2004
Location: Buena Vista, BCS
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Still to far away to think about...We don't start boarding till it's 200 miles from Cabo.
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