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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Katiejay99
Ut oh- 2 of the lines go directly over Todos Santos. Heads up -
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yeah, she'll get to 115w and 20n before turning and blasting todos area. make your plans now......
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Katiejay99
Nomad
Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
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Mood: it is what it is
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Looks more like Bart Simpson than Hillary....
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Are we going to get a double whammy.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
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Mood: undecided
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Hillary will fizzle out. No big deal. Just like the liberal women she's named after.
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
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Mood: mellow
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Cypress
Sir this is a real hurricane and to be sure will not fizzle out, everything is right for this to be striking the Baja Peninsula with force.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
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Mood: undecided
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comitan, Yep, Hillary is a full blown hurricane.
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Cypress
comitan, Yep, Hillary is a full blown hurricane. |
I guess so...winds at 145-MPH. That's breezy.
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krafty
Super Nomad
Posts: 1052
Registered: 8-23-2010
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Breezy?
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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Yep...breezy. 
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
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Mood: undecided
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Don't get your panties in a wad. The odds are Hillary will move on out to sea and head for Hawaii, if not, Baja will get some rain. Is rain in Baja a
bad thing?
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Cypress
Don't get your panties in a wad. The odds are Hillary will move on out to sea and head for Hawaii, if not, Baja will get some rain. Is rain in Baja a
bad thing? |
No, but chasing your roof/belongings down the street is.
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
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Mood: undecided
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Yea, you might ought to tie some of that stuff down.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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someone go down to the beach and post pics.....
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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~~ Update ~~
HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011
HILARY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY STATE IN INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE TODAY AS A SMALL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE TAFB AND
SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AS WELL AS THE ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE FROM CIMMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 125 KT
...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY ANALYZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE ALSO REMAINS QUITE SMALL AS INDICATED BY THE LIMITED COLD
CLOUD ENVELOPE AND A 1621Z CIRA AMSU WIND RADII ESTIMATE.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY. HILARY IS PRIMARILY BEING
STEERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS OR SO. AT THE EXTENDED RANGE...HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO
EXISTS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL..HWRF...AND
EXPERIMENTAL GFD5 REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE HILARY TOWARD
MEXICO BY IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IMPINGING UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE
REMAINING RELIABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY THROUGH FIVE DAYS...AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON HILARY. IT NOW APPEARS FORTUITOUS THAT
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT INDICATE A TRACK CLOSER TO
MEXICO...AS THE 12Z GLOBAL AND GFDN MODEL SUITE HAVE SWUNG BACK
TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN
THESE MODEL RUNS TO THE WEST AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE EAST.
WHILE HILARY HAS APPARENTLY NOT INTENSIFIED FURTHER TODAY...THE
CYCLONE DOES HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS...IN MOIST AIR...AND WITHIN LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IT IS QUITE LIKELY
THAT HILARY WILL CONTINUE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.
INTENSITY VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR MAY BE DOMINATED BY INTERNAL
DYNAMICS...SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH WE HAVE VERY
LIMITED ABILITY TO ANTICIPATE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS...LESS UNSTABLE AIR...AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKENING
TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS
STATISTICAL MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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cabobaja
Nomad
Posts: 363
Registered: 9-19-2006
Location: South \"O\", Elias Calles, BCS
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Mood: Smiling
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So...................., what you are saying is my house in Elias Calles might get
blown away. I hope not. A little rain would be good.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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I'm saying keep an eye on http://eebmike.com/ and you can guess as well as any of us.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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looks like "Mike's" software is the same as my guy's.... 115w 20n when it swings... pretty damn close.
make plans people. she's coming.....
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stanburn
Nomad
Posts: 145
Registered: 10-4-2007
Location: Santiago, Colima, MX
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A dinky hurricane that passed about150 miles south of Manzanillo. We received about .6 inches of rain and no wind. No worry for Baja. If it
recurves it will be over colder water and will die pretty quickly.
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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If you look at stormpulse site, it's funny how little cloudcover is associated with this storm.
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Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
Member Is Offline
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"When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers"
Oscar Wilde
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