Pages:
1
2
3
..
5 |
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
Not Opening A Peso Account At This Time
I have been following the peso since the days of Luis Echeverría. I ran around in 1994 crying "The Sky Is Falling The Sky Is Falling!" about the fate
of the peso. Sure, I was ridiculed by so-called Mexico ex-pats whom had not the least idea of whom Guillermo Ortiz was, or the significance of Cemex
holding bales of derivatives.
Well I have been through half a dozen peso "weakenings" (sounds better and is more accurate than 'devaluations')
What I am seeing today bothers me. Ortiz's famous strategy of dumping a few hundred million US dollars "here and there" into the currency market has
been going on since January, is getting more intense, and having less effect on the peso.
Mexican wealth (and other country's rich folks treasure chests) has been pouring into the USA, and is increasing. As bad as the US economy is one has
to remember that every single bank note ever printed in the USA since 1796 is still legal tender. .01% interest on notes is better than a devaluation,
and before anyone anyone gets all wound up over the Chinese Yuan Renminbi, they had better look at exchange rate charts for the last four months.
I watched the Mexican treasury LIE outrageously about the hundreds of billions of dollars it had in US Dollar currency reserves right up to 22
December 1994.
Petroleum crude oil is going to crash. There is no other term that would accurately fit the scenario. France just elected a socialist president,
Greece and Spain are demanding debt relief that is going to threaten the Euro.
And Mexico is on the verge of electing a PRI/PRD/PT amalgamated presidency that is going to fundamentally dismantle all of the conservative policies
enacted by the last two PANISTA administrations.
In case you haven't noticed the US treasury has been devaluing the dollar. Some countries like Mexico our 2nd biggest trading partner has tracked the
dollar somewhat. Other economies like Australia and Guatemala have not. Just a few short years ago the Australian $ was was 2/3rds that of a US
dollar. Now dollar for dollar it is far stronger than the US dollar. The US is trying to unhinge the Yuan from the dollar with notable miserable
failure.
Too many negatives for the peso to suit me. I don't need to list the reasons why. It is going to weaken even more. It stands a great chance of
weakening a great deal.
Of course the above is merely my opinion. Nothing more. Nothing less.
But I do appreciate the quote from TODAY, posted below...
Stocks fell heavily across the board Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting two-month lows, as mounting political unrest in Greece kept
investors on edge over how the nation will tackle its ongoing debt crisis.
“My attitude about equities right now has moved from being moderately bearish to moderately apocalyptic,” said Tres Knippa of Kenai Capital
Management.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
      
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
|
|
Invest everything in drug rehab centers. The government will keep them in the black and their need will increase exponentially. Growth is guaranteed
by decay.
|
|
shari
Select Nomad
     
Posts: 13049
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
|
|
great idea Dennis...you are so wise....hmm...maybe we should switch focus from B&B to rehab!
|
|
SteveD
Nomad

Posts: 106
Registered: 11-29-2007
Member Is Offline
|
|
We just closed our peso account last week. Reasons: (1) we don't need it anymore for our FM-3 (now FM-2). Our US checking account statements were
sufficient. It also makes more sense as it shows income, not just a static amount. (2) tired of seeing the peso slowly be devalued over the dollar.
We were in Baja when the "unplugged" the peso and it went into free-fall in the 1980's. What a mess and lots of people got hurt.
|
|
DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
      
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
|
|
Quote: | Originally posted by shari
great idea Dennis...you are so wise....hmm...maybe we should switch focus from B&B to rehab! |
Sure........Just think of it. You could send the "clients" out into the streets with panhandling cans for a tax-free addition to your bottom line.
Isn't this what CREAD does?
|
|
Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 4709
Registered: 9-2-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
David E: There are ways to make some money if this Peso goes to 4,000 to one in the next couple of years.
Last time around I made $40,000 playing the Game. I had a very good connection which would call and let me know when the Govt. was getting ready to
devalue. You must be able to havethat connection to have time to change the Peso to dollars and back to pesos.
Be careful
|
|
Cisco
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 4196
Registered: 12-30-2010
Member Is Offline
|
|
Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
I have been following the peso since the days of Luis Echeverría. I ran around in 1994 crying "The Sky Is Falling The Sky Is Falling!" about the fate
of the peso. Sure, I was ridiculed by so-called Mexico ex-pats whom had not the least idea of whom Guillermo Ortiz was, or the significance of Cemex
holding bales of derivatives.
Well I have been through half a dozen peso "weakenings" (sounds better and is more accurate than 'devaluations')
What I am seeing today bothers me. Ortiz's famous strategy of dumping a few hundred million US dollars "here and there" into the currency market has
been going on since January, is getting more intense, and having less effect on the peso.
Mexican wealth (and other country's rich folks treasure chests) has been pouring into the USA, and is increasing. As bad as the US economy is one has
to remember that every single bank note ever printed in the USA since 1796 is still legal tender. .01% interest on notes is better than a devaluation,
and before anyone anyone gets all wound up over the Chinese Yuan Renminbi, they had better look at exchange rate charts for the last four months.
I watched the Mexican treasury LIE outrageously about the hundreds of billions of dollars it had in US Dollar currency reserves right up to 22
December 1994.
Petroleum crude oil is going to crash. There is no other term that would accurately fit the scenario. France just elected a socialist president,
Greece and Spain are demanding debt relief that is going to threaten the Euro.
And Mexico is on the verge of electing a PRI/PRD/PT amalgamated presidency that is going to fundamentally dismantle all of the conservative policies
enacted by the last two PANISTA administrations.
In case you haven't noticed the US treasury has been devaluing the dollar. Some countries like Mexico our 2nd biggest trading partner has tracked the
dollar somewhat. Other economies like Australia and Guatemala have not. Just a few short years ago the Australian $ was was 2/3rds that of a US
dollar. Now dollar for dollar it is far stronger than the US dollar. The US is trying to unhinge the Yuan from the dollar with notable miserable
failure.
Too many negatives for the peso to suit me. I don't need to list the reasons why. It is going to weaken even more. It stands a great chance of
weakening a great deal.
Of course the above is merely my opinion. Nothing more. Nothing less.
But I do appreciate the quote from TODAY, posted below...
Stocks fell heavily across the board Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting two-month lows, as mounting political unrest in Greece kept
investors on edge over how the nation will tackle its ongoing debt crisis.
“My attitude about equities right now has moved from being moderately bearish to moderately apocalyptic,” said Tres Knippa of Kenai Capital
Management. |
David, Thank you. Appreciate what I consider to be good source information.
I get so much out of this forum.
On another note I am including a quote from a friend who travels a lot and is quite perceptive. "...I did hear a guy from the War College being
interviewed about where the next US war will be. He was asked whether Iran or Korea and he volunteered: Mexico! Your guess is as good as mine though.
We only know there WILL be one." I don't know what that means but it seems to go along with all the confusion we are experiencing in the world.
I really came away from the following, 'different':
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/05/07-0
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
RANT (ita),
I've got a personal policy that I use with my household Mexican help. At first their wage is agreed upon. If the peso should start slipping, their
wages are guaranteed to be pegged to the dollar computed at the original rate. You cannot even begin to imagine what this means to a very poor hard
working soul when peso prices soar after a weakening of the peso. To a cynic this would be the ultimate in cynicism --- the help will work their butt
off in appreciation. Sorry, I just can't think that way.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
      
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
|
|
WOW....I didn't realize a devaluation was such a quiet, backroom event. I have to think indicators would forcast the move long before it hit the
market.
This was to address Skeet's comment.
.
[Edited on 5-8-2012 by DENNIS]
|
|
KurtG
Super Nomad
  
Posts: 1211
Registered: 1-27-2004
Location: California Central Coast
Member Is Offline
Mood: Press On Regardless!!
|
|
Quote: | Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
David E: There are ways to make some money if this Peso goes to 4,000 to one in the next couple of years.
Last time around I made $40,000 playing the Game. I had a very good connection which would call and let me know when the Govt. was getting ready to
devalue. You must be able to havethat connection to have time to change the Peso to dollars and back to pesos.
Be careful |
Skeet,
You constantly represent yourself as a man of high moral character and berate other members of society who don't meet your high standard but you have
just admitted to participating in corrupt insider trading . Double standard when its profitable?
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
Hi Skeet, "Cluck, cluck, cluck!" I am waaaay too much chicken to wade barefoot into the piranha infested currency exchange swamp. Some of those bigger
boys gotta go seven - eight hundred pounds...
SHARI: For crying out loud. You already have "re-hab"! I for one can state that anyone with the desire to come to Bahia Asuncion will soon feel like a
new, re-invigorated person! Furthermore when I arrived a month or so ago, the doctors had me on 5X/day 30mg. OXYCODONE, -PLUS- 30 milligrams twice a
day oral time release MORPHINE for a herniated disc. After I got to Asuncion I QUIT COLD TURKEY! The people are so nice here the weather so agreeable
that yeah, this is a re-hab center, damned-near a miracle in my opinion.
So There! Phhttt---
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
Member Is Offline
|
|
Hey Skeet....I thought you guaranteed Rick Perry would be President
|
|
DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
      
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
|
|
Quote: | Originally posted by Bajaboy
Hey Skeet....I thought you guaranteed Rick Perry would be President
|
Skeets mind is an administration unto itself. Long Live President Ricky.
|
|
Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 4709
Registered: 9-2-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
It was not a "Corrupt Insider -trader thing.
I did not and would not have Paid my source of information. That source knew that I would spend some of that money in Loreto Baja which I did.All of
It!
|
|
mcfez
Elite Nomad
    
Posts: 8678
Registered: 12-2-2009
Location: aka BN yankeeirishman
Member Is Offline
|
|
I love his stories....................
Hey Skeet...............
Your postings reminds me of the movie "The Goonies"
Here's a partial take of a scene:
(The Lighthouse Lounge, Basement)
(Chunk and Sloth have freed themselves and Chunk is on the phone talking to the Sheriff. Sloth is digging around in the freezer.)
Chunk: Hello, Sheriff? I'm at the old Lighthouse Lounge and I want to, and I want to report, ah...a murder.
Sheriff: Wait a minute. Wait a minute. Just hold on here. Is that you again, Lawrence?
Chunk: Sheriff, look. This time I'm telling you the truth. I'm locked inside the Fratelli's basement with this guy...
(Sloth emerges from the freezer with a container of ice cream.)
Sloth: Rocky Road, heh heh.
Sheriff: Yeah, like the time you told me about the fifty Iranian terrorists who took over all the Sizzler Steak houses in the city?
(Sloth, however, is now interested in the tunnel under the fireplace. Chunk tries to stop him while staying on the phone.)
Chunk: Sloth, get back here. Sloth, what are you doing?
Sheriff: (continuing) Just like that last prank about all those little creatures that multiply when you throw water on 'em?
(While trying to stop Sloth, Chunk has stretched the phone cord over to the fireplace, but Sloth is already starting to climb in.)
Chunk: Sloth! Sloth! We're not going in the fireplace.
(Now Chunk's phone cord breaks from the wall and the Sheriff is cut off with a dial tone.)
Sheriff: Lawrence?
Old people are like the old cars, made of some tough stuff. May show a little rust, but good as gold on the inside.
|
|
KurtG
Super Nomad
  
Posts: 1211
Registered: 1-27-2004
Location: California Central Coast
Member Is Offline
Mood: Press On Regardless!!
|
|
Quote: | Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
It was not a "Corrupt Insider -trader thing.
I did not and would not have Paid my source of information. That source knew that I would spend some of that money in Loreto Baja which I did.All of
It! |
Trading for personal profit with advance knowledge is insider trading. It is a federal crime in the US. In Mexico it may just be a way of life but
that doesn't make it a moral act. Whether or not you paid your source is irrelevant, it is the act itself that is at issue.
|
|
DavidE
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
|
|
DAMN! JUST IN, FROM LA CHUPACABRA!
""The election in Greece is increasing the uncertainty about the commitment to the terms of the bailout plans. And the peso has again proven itself
vulnerable to external risks," said BBVA analyst Claudia Ceja. A local trader added that, in this scenario, investors are looking for safe-haven
assets such as U.S. Treasurys and the greenback.
The peso fell 1.6% on Wednesday, but stopped short of the 2% depreciation in a single session that would have triggered dollar sales at an auction by
the central bank.
Late last year, at the height of peso volatility, the exchange commission decided to stop buying dollars through monthly dollar put options and
activated instead a mechanism in which it will sell up to $400 million a day on days when the peso depreciates 2% against the dollar. So far, no sales
have been triggered under the mechanism".
UNTIL THE WEALTHY HAVE EXCHANGED ENOUGH PESOS INTO DOLLARS AND STASHED THEM IN THE USA BOND MARKET, THERE WILL BE NO "OFFICIAL" 2% "CIRCUIT BREAKER"
DOLLAR SALES. THE BOOST TO THE PESO WOULD BE TRANSIENT AND A SURPLUS OF REQUESTS FOR DOLLARS WOULD BUST THE PESO. MEXICO'S WEALTHY DID NOT GET THAT
WAY BY BEING STUPID.
The announcement when it comes of the introduction of a new 2,000 peso note will be like a klaxon horn going off.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
|
|
thebajarunner
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 3752
Registered: 9-8-2003
Location: Arizona....."Free at last from crumbling Cali
Member Is Offline
Mood: muy amable
|
|
Skeet- walk me through this transaction
Quote: | Originally posted by Skeet/Loreto
David E: There are ways to make some money if this Peso goes to 4,000 to one in the next couple of years.
Last time around I made $40,000 playing the Game. I had a very good connection which would call and let me know when the Govt. was getting ready to
devalue. You must be able to havethat connection to have time to change the Peso to dollars and back to pesos.
Be careful |
I am a little slow on the uptick these days- I folded up my CPA certificate and put it in storage some years back (true story)
So, walk me through the transaction if you will.
How much do you place in a "peso account" and how does it grow by $40k (U.S. I assume) and then you extract the dollars just in time...
I am struggling with this one, but would love to understand it, so I too could get on this easy train....
|
|
Skeet/Loreto
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 4709
Registered: 9-2-2003
Member Is Offline
|
|
If you can not figure it out you should not be involved. Go to some very safe Transaction.
|
|
thebajarunner
Ultra Nomad
   
Posts: 3752
Registered: 9-8-2003
Location: Arizona....."Free at last from crumbling Cali
Member Is Offline
Mood: muy amable
|
|
Gee Skeet- not fair to keep secrets
Well, I went to an international banking site, got quote of 4.65% interest rate on a minimum deposit of $1,000,000- maximum of $950,000,000. Peso
account.
Guess I will stick with the lower number for now. No reason to break the banking system all by myself.
And, that is a one year lock by the way.
So, I invest my mil (U.S.) and in just one year I have made (let me see here, 2 over the 5 times 7 carry the 8) Voila- $46,500.
Of course, for every time the peso slips one percent (1%) I have lost $10k.....and as I recall it fell 11% in one month last fall- Sept. (Ouch, we
just lost $110k)
And, no matter how good my contact is upstream, I have that one year lock, so his call may not do much good. Oooooops.
So, even though you would not share your secret sauce, I think I have figured it out for myself.
As we say in the real estate development biz here in California.
"Want to make a small fortune? Start with a large fortune"
|
|
Pages:
1
2
3
..
5 |