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Iflyfish
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3747
Registered: 10-17-2006
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Good one!!
Iflyfishbroke
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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So You Want To Be A Big Time Peso/Dollar Trader :-)
THE FOLLOWING IS MEANT TO AMUSE NOT TO PROVOKE. HERE IS A LOOK AT THE SWAMP WHERE BE PIANO-SIZE PIRANHA.
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About Currencies at a Glance
Bid, Ask, Open, High, Low, Close
Bid and Ask are calculated using Interactive Data real-time feed. Open, High, Low and Close are calculated using Interactive Data feed on the
indicated Updated Time and with the indicated Time Frame.
Supports and Resistances (S1-S3, R1-R3)
This is a method to forecast the future of the trend by predicting the lows and highs of the current period. The calculation is based on the previous
period OHLC prices, thus accounting for volatility and price direction. These levels are to be checked regularly as they adapt to price changes at the
close of each period.
Trend Index
Trend Index is a proprietary trend indicator of FXstreet.com. It indicates the bearishness or bullishness of the trend.
OB/OS Index (overbought / oversold Index)
OB/OS Index is a proprietary overbought / oversold indicator of FXstreet.com.
Classical Pivot Points: S1, S2, S3, R1, R2, R3
Pivot points are calculated based on end of day values applying the following formulas:
pivot = (High + Low + Close) / 3
S1 = (2 * pivot) - High
R1 = (2 * pivot) - Low
S2 = pivot - (R1 - S1)
R2 = pivot + (R1 - S1)
S3 = Low - 2 * (High - pivot)
R3 = High + 2 * (pivot - Low)
Camarilla Pivot Points: S1, S2, S3, R1, R2, R3
Camarilla Pivot Points are calculated based on end of day values applying the following formulas:
pivot = (High + Low + Close) / 3
R1 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 12)
S1 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 12)
R2 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 6)
S2 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 6)
R3 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 4)
S3 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 4)
R4 = Close + ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 2)
S4 = Close - ((High - Low) * 1.1 / 2)
R5 = Close * High / Low
S5 = 2 * Close - R5
Simple Moving Average
A moving average is calculated by adding the closing price of the pair for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time
periods.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Exponential Moving Averages are similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data, so it reacts faster to recent
price changes than the simple moving average. The calculation for a k periods exponential average is as follows:
alpha = 2 / (k + 1) EMAinitial = SMA(k) EMAtoday = alpha * ( Closeyesterday - EMAyesterday) + EMAyesterday
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold
conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:
U = closetoday - closeyesterday
D = 0
The same for down days:
U = 0
D = closeyesterday - closetoday
Then we can calculate RS and RSI:
RS = (EMA[k] of U) /(EMA[k] of D)
RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS)
Where RS = Exponential Moving Average of k days' up closes / Exponential Moving Average of k days' down closes.
A pair is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a
pullback. Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and therefore likely to become undervalued.
Stochastic Oscillator
A technical momentum indicator that compares a pair's closing price with its price range over a given time period. The oscillator's sensitivity to
market movements can be reduced by adjusting the time period or by taking a moving average of the result. This indicator is calculated with the
following formula:
%K = 100 * (CLOSEtoday - LOWlowestNDays) / (HIGHhighestNDays - LOWlowestNDays)
Then the SMA of the Stoch %K across 3 periods:
Then we calculate %D = SMA3 of %K
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by
subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line", is then plotted on
top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
MACD = EMA[12] of price - EMA[26] of price
signal = EMA[9] of MACD
Average Directional Index (ADX)
An indicator used in technical analysis to determine the strength of a prevailing trend. The ADX is measured on a scale between zero and 100. Readings
over 25 indicate a strong trend. ADX is not used to determine the direction of a particular trend, but only to gauge its strength.
UpMove = Today's High − Yesterday's High
DownMove = Yesterday's Low − Today's Low
if UpMove > DownMove then +DM = Upmove else +DM = 0
if DownMove > UpMove then -DM = DownMove else -DM = 0
+DI = exponential moving average of +DM divided by Average True Range
-DI = exponential moving average of -DM divided by Average True Range
ADX = EMA(+DM − -DM)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The Commodity Channel Index quantifies the relationship between the pair's price, a moving average (MA) of the asset's price and normal deviations (D)
from that average. It is computed with the following formula:
CCI = (pt - SMA(pt)) / (0.015 * sigma(pt) )
Average True Range (ATR)
The Average True Range is calculated as the 14 periods moving average of the True Ranges, which are defined as the greatest of the following:
ATR = max(HIGH,CLOSEprevious) − min(LOW,CLOSEprevious)
Candlestick Watch
The Candlestick Watch patterns are defined as follows:
Doji
CLOSEt = OPENt
PiercingLine
OPENt < LOWt-1 and CLOSEt > (OPENt-1 + CLOSEt-1)/2
DarkCloudCover
OPENt > HIGHt-1 Y CLOSEt < (OPENt-1 + CLOSEt-1)/2
Engulfing Bullish
HIGHt > HIGHt-1 Y LOWt < LOWt-1 Y CLOSEt > HIGHt-1
Engulfing Bearish
HIGHt > HIGHt-1 Y LOWt < LOWt-1 Y CLOSEt < LOWt-1
Evening Star
OPENt < CLOSEt and Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) >= candelpips and
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) =< candelpips and OPENt >CLOSEt-1 Y CLOSEt >CLOSEt-1 and
OPENt >LOWt-1 and CLOSEt < OPENt and CLOSEt < CLOSEt-2 and CLOSEt >OPENt-2
Morning Star
OPENt > CLOSEt and Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) >= candelpips and
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) <= candelpips and OPENt < CLOSEt-1 and CLOSEt < CLOSEt-1
OPENt >HIGHt-1 and CLOSEt > OPENt and CLOSEt > CLOSEt-2 and CLOSEt < OPENt-2
ShottingStar
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) =< candelpips and OPENt >CLOSEt and
OPENt > HIGHt-1 and
(Abs(HIGHt – OPENt) >= 3 * Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt)) and
Abs(OPENt – LOWt) <= uppershadow
Hammer
Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) <= candelpips and OPENt t and
Abs(OPENt – LOWt) >= 2* Abs(CLOSEt – OPENt) and
Abs(HIGHt – OPENt) <= uppershadow
Harami Bullish
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) >= candelpips and OPENt > CLOSEt
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) <= candelpips and OPENt < CLOSEt
LOWt-1 < LOWt and HIGHt-1 > HIGHt
Harami Bearish
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) >= candelpips and OPENt < CLOSEt and
Abs(OPENt – CLOSEt) <= candelpips and OPENt > CLOSEt and
LOWt-1 < LOWt and HIGHt-1 > HIGHt
Most Popular Content
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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Udo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6364
Registered: 4-26-2008
Location: Black Hills, SD/Ensenada/San Felipe
Member Is Offline
Mood: TEQUILA!
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All this complicated formula just to save 90 centavos when you buy gas??
Udo
Youth is wasted on the young!
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Cypress
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7641
Registered: 3-12-2006
Location: on the bayou
Member Is Offline
Mood: undecided
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Udo
All this complicated formula just to save 90 centavos when you buy gas?? |
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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You Couldn't Have Said It Better Myself Udo... :-)
This is EXACTLY what is wrong with the currency trading market and why their forecasts are wildly inaccurate.
NYSE, NASDAQ, CME, and other "experts" use exactly the same hocus-pocus
They would not DREAM of going and visiting a corporation before rating it. Hell, most of them have never traveled in the same STATE as the corp they
try and rate.
Currency traders know Mexico mostly via Taco Bell and a Chihuahua.
BUT, if a Nomad of modest means is holding onto a wad of pesos in a bank account
Suddenly all this is not so funny.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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rts551
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6700
Registered: 9-5-2003
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
Monday is going to be witching day for the mexican peso. Most interesting day since 1994. |
Wasn't very interesting.what happened?
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Nuttin
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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Exactly and precisely that! Nothing. And "something" should have, and it did. Take a close look at what happens at 0600 CDT every morning from the
Friday the week before onward. Banco de Mexico is injecting money, lots of it, into buying pesos, every day, and then waiting to "see" what
transpires. This sort of sleuthing isn't for everyone.
Now go back and research the steady decline of the Chilean peso. Chile does not want to defend its peso. Yet far and away it relies on the US economy.
At least as much as does Mexico.
"Nothing" happened an awful lot during the summer of 1994. I think all of the financeros in Mexico learned a big lesson from that, but there is an
election at stake. PAN realizes if the allow the peso the lose value -the way it should- naturally, and raise to fourteen and beyond against the
dollar, they might as well pack it in for decades. The PRI will again turn into a machine that will be next to impossible to overcome for many
sexenios.
But all this is nerd stuff. Gotta be patient and see what happens between now and after the election. It is certain that PAN will burn the furniture
before it too gets a reputation of "causing" a weakening of the peso "Just Like The PRI Did" repeatedly. Rome fiddles while Nero burns. Of course the
phrase "When The United States Catches Cold Mexico Gets Pneumonia" (economically) hasn't been coined yet. Mexico's is a service-oriented economy.
Throw an economic monkey-wrench into the works, a cut in oil exports, a disaster in auto sales and exports (they are filling up the lots in Puebla and
elsewhere), to at least a million returnees, arriving without a cent in their pocket, and you have agricultural exports, only, as a bright spot. Las
Truchas, Sicartsa, in my home town area has cut steel production by more than twenty percent. Steel used primarily for varilla, re-bar.
But pondering these points can be a downer for some folks. This chatter isn't intended to slip ice cubes into your shorts. The worst thing that can
happen is for visitors to not come and spend money. Overland tourism is way, way down. Prime seats with the best view in the best restaurants are
empty. The best rooms in the hotels are vacant. Prime camp spots are waiting. Yet those who could afford to visit despite the economy, have decided
for one reason or another (fear or timidity) to not do so.
Tracking the economy and the politics of Mexico and latin america is a hobby of mine, as is alternator rebuilding and electrical troubleshooting, and
gardening. Out of all of them the former is by far the most challenging. I love it.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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June 9, 2012 is going to be much more exciting.
He HAS TO win, with a name like that!
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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June 12, will be more so! Thats my Birthday...Penelope Cruz has promised me "somezing especial"...
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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Feliz Cumpleaños en adelante amigo!
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
Member Is Offline
Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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WOW
The dollar has strengthened again....$82.10
and the Peso exchange is 14.04 per dollar.....when do the common folks of Mexico start feeling the pain?
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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Every shopkeeper knows what the peso exchange rate is. In a small rural village a cuñado may call on his cellular to let an owner of a tiny tienda
know what the peso did or did not do that day.
Locally grown produce is "way" more expensive than it was a year ago, far outstripping any percentage differential of the dollar versus peso. To a
poor Mexican, twenty percent or thirty percent increase is "way" more expensive.
The days of "devaluation" and finding tourist stuff half price is long-gone.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
Member Is Offline
Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
Every shopkeeper knows what the peso exchange rate is. In a small rural village a cuñado may call on his cellular to let an owner of a tiny tienda
know what the peso did or did not do that day.
Locally grown produce is "way" more expensive than it was a year ago, far outstripping any percentage differential of the dollar versus peso. To a
poor Mexican, twenty percent or thirty percent increase is "way" more expensive.
The days of "devaluation" and finding tourist stuff half price is long-gone. |
That's my concern......I don't want to see a local who is getting squeezed....and squeezed.....and hanging on......because he lives in Baja.....every
day.......not like he's a visitor with King Dollar in his pocket....or can renegotiate his "contract" as this unfolds.......or his teenagers can
relate to the situation.....
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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I fix a wage for anyone that works for me, and tell them flat out that their sueldo is guaranteed in dollars. I have done that so as to set an example
to wealthy Mexicans and well-off foreigners that can do without exploiting their workers. Too many wealthy Mexicans are like wealthy Americans, they
sit on their arses in coffee clatches, and brag to one another how they managed to screw their workers. Don't bother arguing, I've sat in on plenty of
these little exploitation soireés. They are disgusting.
Just last month I pressed a twenty peso note into the gnarled hand of an elderly hotel maid working in a very inexpensive place. She was ecstatic. The
next night I found extra pillows, blanket, and towels in the room. These folks stay alive by their wages and live on their tips. The tips come far and
in-between. Try leaving a bank note instead of a coin for a hotel room tip --- they will danged sure say "Gracias!" even though you may be down the
road. But some slimy hotel personnel slip into a room soon after a gringo departs, and pockets the tip. I leave mine somewhere where a maid can find
it (folded over bedspread).
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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Here is a link to a story about an economist I agree with. I read his chicken-little in the summer of '87 and all of his detractors who ridiculed him
and his theories. Forgot about Faber until I stumbled on this story ten minutes ago...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47566735
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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PESO CIRCUIT BREAKER FORMULA
A 2.0% figure is used as a "trigger" to support the peso with foreign reserves, the US Dollar. Let's do a day-by-day weakening of the peso, under the
"circuit breaker" limit of 2.0% and stay with say, 1.9%. This is just a drill.
Start Day 14.1
(2) 14.36
(3) 14.63
(4) 14.90
(5) 15.18
MONDAY Theoretically can start at 14.10
FRIDAY Theoretically can finish at 15.18
Now let's go back to the days of the old peso, when on a Monday it "theoretically" started at 1,410 to the dollar, the following Friday it
"theoretically" finished at 1,518 to the dollar.
This example was constructed solely to demonstrate the mechanics of Banco de México's peso 2% circuit breaker policy in use today. Nothing else is
implied.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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Curt63
Super Nomad
Posts: 1171
Registered: 3-28-2009
Location: San Diego, Ca.
Member Is Offline
Mood: Fish tacos and Tecate
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peso
No worries
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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14.3102.....as we speak.
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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"When" things settle down, Banco de México will try using "Ortiz-isimo" to back the peso using hundred million dollar increments. If a hundred million
works they will try as much as three hundred million and wait several days in-between to see what happens.
Frankly I think Wall Street is on drugs. I see postings of Mexico's so-called dollar-reserves, that equal one thousand two hundred, thirty dollars for
every man, woman and child in Mexico. Just in dollar reserves. Held at the ready solely to defend the peso.
How can I take anything the financial sector reports, seriously? I cannot.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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