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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
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Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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Godzilla El Nino
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Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California |
Those pesky NASA scientific types who pander to the crowd that wants to send humans to space are at it again.....
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The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward
the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California. The National Weather
Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A
host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and
strengthening El Niño.” “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. |
Good thing that he provided his own disclaimer with the "potential" statement. The quotes are from the LA Times but even NPR is getting in on
it.....your liberal gubinment at work.....
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/13/432099022/...
Good graphics there, maybe even better.
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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freediverbrian
Senior Nomad
Posts: 625
Registered: 2-24-2007
Location: Papas Gonzaga Bay
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"Godzilla El Nino " really? What was ninogate and ninoarmageddon taken
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7348
Registered: 8-5-2011
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Hot news topic for today:
link to news stories
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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
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Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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hot is the new normal.....
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The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the
late fall or early winter. “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. Patzert said El Niño’s signal in the ocean “right now is stronger than it was in 1997,” the summer in
which the most powerful El Niño on record developed ... “This could be among the strongest El Niños in the historical record dating back to
1950,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. After the summer 1997 El Niño muscled up, the following winter gave
Southern California double its annual rainfall and dumped double the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, an essential source of precipitation for the
state’s water supply, Patzert said. So what is a good disaster prepper to do? We know that the rains are coming. We know where they’re likely to
strike. My housemates and I have decided to use the last warm days of summer to patch all the holes in our roof, and to make sure all our rain
gutters are clear and in working order. Also, I’ve decided I should buy some good rain boots. What else should we be doing? If you live in the El Niño
path, what are you doing? |
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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DianaT
Select Nomad
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
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It has been interesting interacting with the people in the East Part of the Northwest Territories and they tell us there is no doubt there is global
warming. Yes, the weather still drops to -40F, but in the 70s and 80s it used to drop to -60F and lower on a regular basis and they had to use
special fuel to keep things going. Now they just use the same summer fuel all year. They had a name for a 7 day super freeze when everything quit,
but have not seen that happen for years.
And they have concerns for the future of the ice and winter roads upon which they depend and need for survival in the winter.
Scientific? No, just people seeing the change in their way of life.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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bring on the floods!
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ncampion
Super Nomad
Posts: 1238
Registered: 4-15-2006
Location: Loreto
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Mood: Retired and Loving it
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Oh Boy, another Global catastrophe for the power seekers to protect us from.
Living Large in Loreto. Off-grid and happy.
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6186
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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One of the links that SF&H provided referred to it as a "Bruce Lee El Nino". Does that mean it will die off right at it's peak?
I know....that's just wrong. I'm sorry!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Ateo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5914
Registered: 7-18-2011
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Dang AK, that was good..................
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 19743
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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Quote: Originally posted by Sweetwater  |
| Quote: |
Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California |
Those pesky NASA scientific types who pander to the crowd that wants to send humans to space are at it again.....
| Quote: |
The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward
the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California. The National Weather
Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A
host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and
strengthening El Niño.” “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet
Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. |
Good thing that he provided his own disclaimer with the "potential" statement. The quotes are from the LA Times but even NPR is getting in on
it.....your liberal gubinment at work.....
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/13/432099022/...
Good graphics there, maybe even better. |
Ya, that may be so, but we all know scientists are liars, forecasts/predictions are guesses (not science), the sea level at shell island is static
(relevant here because it is proof that scientists are liars), and if you heard it on NPR then you must be a commie socialist just like Obama and
Jerry Brown.
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Records are made to be broken, just ask Jerry Rice and Bret Favre. Same with El Niño, and all articles I've read state the same prognosis which, as
always, I like to echo:
ALL BETS ARE OFF. WE DON'T KNOW.
The anomaly sets off GLOBAL changes that make all 'usual' or 'formal' forecasts non-dependable. El Niños and La Niñas are meteorological circus
side-shows to the pro's: "Gitcha Popcorn Ready!"
It's already given Baja 3 early scares, and absolutely NOTHING in the Altantic............ yet. Record monster storms in the west Pacific. That's
the point, folks; lighten up on paranoia, double-down on life insurance, and hope you're wrong so you can blame the next batch of potiticians for your
loss!!
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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LinRobinson
Newbie
Posts: 4
Registered: 8-13-2015
Location: Baja
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Nuts. And after SUCH a lovely summer.
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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Just goes to show you, if you pray to the rain gods long enough, or get the rain dance moves just right, one year your prayers may be
answered...and possibly not in a good way.
Truth generally lies in the coordination of antagonistic opinions
-Herbert Spencer
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Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
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When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.
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wilderone
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3871
Registered: 2-9-2004
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Doesn't seem like such a "guess" or baseless prediction. There is actual history and credible science from past El Nino events. I know what the '97
El Nino did to the Walker River, and it collapsed my roof in Lake Tahoe (4 ft. of snow, then 2 ft. of snow, then rain (because the temperature warmed)
to weigh it all down). That El Nino event literally caused the Walker River to change course - it wiped out stretches of Hwy. 395, mowed down 1/2 mi.
of forest - trees that had been standing for over 100 years.
I live on a bit of a hill - good thing - but I'm still gearing up for this winter; more catchment barrels with drain hoses out to the street. Safe
than sorry. I hope Baja's new bridges can withstand floods equal to the ones that toppled them in the past.
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7348
Registered: 8-5-2011
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El Ninos are very costly. The 97-98 one did 2.6 billion in property damage and 2 billion in crop damage.
"The overall hit to the U.S. economy: $25 billion."
How that number was arrived at was not explained.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-threatens-to-return-cost...
Beach/bluff erosion is a concern for coastal homes.
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BooJumMan
Senior Nomad
Posts: 919
Registered: 8-11-2007
Location: San Diego
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Been following the progression of this years event for a few months now. There are tons of models and buoy data capturing the progression of a very
strong Kelvin wave traversing the pacific from West to East along the equator. The areas on the equatorial eastern pacific which get charged by these
warm waters have been already charged from last years base state. The oceanic gears have been turning for months though...the coupling of atmospheric
changes have also been starting to form. The momentum that has been in motion will most likely NOT be stopped until next spring at least.
Last year's failed El Nino was due to the media blowing it up in Feb-May I think. That was way too premature. We are past the uncertainty phase now
into August. This massive Kelvin wave is real and is tracked in real time....it will "erupt" in the eastern pacific around Oct/Nov. Will the northern
hemisphere and jet streams change to it? Most likely, but... who knows. The fact is that the El Nino this year will be massive, in terms of anomalous
warm water in the Nino regions.
Not to mention, remember all the tuna crabs this year? There is a correlation between them an El Nino as well.!
[Edited on 8-14-2015 by BooJumMan]
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Member Is Offline
Mood: Happy!
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When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...
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sargentodiaz
Nomad
Posts: 259
Registered: 2-20-2013
Location: Las Vegas, NV
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From what I've read, the biggest impact will be on Baja and Alta California, along with Arizona New Mexico with lots and lots of rain.
So, we'll see lots of flooding and mudslides affecting those dumb enough to build stuff where Nature doesn't want them.
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StuckSucks
Super Nomad
Posts: 2358
Registered: 10-17-2013
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8/13:
NOAA/NWS issued an updated El Nino outlook this morning. The main points are:
· A moderate El Nino event is currently ongoing and strengthening
· The NWS remains highly confident that this El Nino event will continue through the winter and into the early 2016 spring.
· At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors this El Nino to peak sometime this fall or early winter as a strong event.
· This event could be among the strongest El Nino events in recorded history. The 3 strongest El Nino events occurred in: 72/73, 82/83, and 97/98.
· There is a positive correlation between El Nino events and increased tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific
hurricane season lasts until November 30th.
· The strongest correlations with enhanced precipitation occur across mainly southern CA during the winter associated with strong El Ninos. There is
little-to-no correlation between enhanced precipitation and weak or moderate strength El Ninos.
· Even if California does receive above average precipitation this winter, it likely will not erase a 4 year drought.
· Individual weather storms can produce flooding, even in a drought.
It is important to remember that all El Nino events are different, and produce variable impacts. The graphic I have attached shows the 5 recorded
strongest El Nino events since 1950 (note, that is a small sample size), and the precipitation anomalies that were observed. Most show above average
precipitation, especially in southern CA, but look at 1965/66 where central and northern CA did not receive increased precipitation. The bottom line
is there is a relationship between strong El Nino events and increased precipitation for California, but it is not a guarantee. This is especially
true for central and northern California.
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