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Author: Subject: Godzilla El Nino
Sweetwater
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 05:30 PM
Godzilla El Nino



Quote:

Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California



Those pesky NASA scientific types who pander to the crowd that wants to send humans to space are at it again.....


Quote:

The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.” “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.





Good thing that he provided his own disclaimer with the "potential" statement. The quotes are from the LA Times but even NPR is getting in on it.....your liberal gubinment at work.....

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/13/432099022/...

Good graphics there, maybe even better.




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freediverbrian
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 06:04 PM


"Godzilla El Nino " really? What was ninogate and ninoarmageddon taken:tumble:
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SFandH
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 06:13 PM


Hot news topic for today:

link to news stories
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Sweetwater
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 06:22 PM


hot is the new normal.....:lol:


Quote:

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge. Patzert said El Niño’s signal in the ocean “right now is stronger than it was in 1997,” the summer in which the most powerful El Niño on record developed ... “This could be among the strongest El Niños in the historical record dating back to 1950,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. After the summer 1997 El Niño muscled up, the following winter gave Southern California double its annual rainfall and dumped double the snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, an essential source of precipitation for the state’s water supply, Patzert said. So what is a good disaster prepper to do? We know that the rains are coming. We know where they’re likely to strike. My housemates and I have decided to use the last warm days of summer to patch all the holes in our roof, and to make sure all our rain gutters are clear and in working order. Also, I’ve decided I should buy some good rain boots. What else should we be doing? If you live in the El Niño path, what are you doing?







Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 07:23 PM


It has been interesting interacting with the people in the East Part of the Northwest Territories and they tell us there is no doubt there is global warming. Yes, the weather still drops to -40F, but in the 70s and 80s it used to drop to -60F and lower on a regular basis and they had to use special fuel to keep things going. Now they just use the same summer fuel all year. They had a name for a 7 day super freeze when everything quit, but have not seen that happen for years.

And they have concerns for the future of the ice and winter roads upon which they depend and need for survival in the winter.

Scientific? No, just people seeing the change in their way of life.




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woody with a view
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 07:27 PM


bring on the floods!



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ncampion
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 07:47 PM


Oh Boy, another Global catastrophe for the power seekers to protect us from.



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AKgringo
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 08:06 PM


One of the links that SF&H provided referred to it as a "Bruce Lee El Nino". Does that mean it will die off right at it's peak?

I know....that's just wrong. I'm sorry!




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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 08:17 PM


Dang AK, that was good..................:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
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mtgoat666
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 08:27 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Sweetwater  

Quote:

Latest forecast suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' may be coming to California



Those pesky NASA scientific types who pander to the crowd that wants to send humans to space are at it again.....


Quote:

The strengthening El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has the potential to become one of the most powerful on record, as warming ocean waters surge toward the Americas, setting up a pattern that could bring once-in-a-generation storms this winter to drought-parched California. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that all computer models are predicting a strong El Niño to peak in the late fall or early winter. A host of observations have led scientists to conclude that “collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect a significant and strengthening El Niño.” “This definitely has the potential of being the Godzilla El Niño,” said Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in La Cañada Flintridge.





Good thing that he provided his own disclaimer with the "potential" statement. The quotes are from the LA Times but even NPR is getting in on it.....your liberal gubinment at work.....

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/13/432099022/...

Good graphics there, maybe even better.


Ya, that may be so, but we all know scientists are liars, forecasts/predictions are guesses (not science), the sea level at shell island is static (relevant here because it is proof that scientists are liars), and if you heard it on NPR then you must be a commie socialist just like Obama and Jerry Brown.
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bajabuddha
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 08:54 PM


Records are made to be broken, just ask Jerry Rice and Bret Favre. Same with El Niño, and all articles I've read state the same prognosis which, as always, I like to echo:

ALL BETS ARE OFF. WE DON'T KNOW.

The anomaly sets off GLOBAL changes that make all 'usual' or 'formal' forecasts non-dependable. El Niños and La Niñas are meteorological circus side-shows to the pro's: "Gitcha Popcorn Ready!"

It's already given Baja 3 early scares, and absolutely NOTHING in the Altantic............ yet. Record monster storms in the west Pacific. That's the point, folks; lighten up on paranoia, double-down on life insurance, and hope you're wrong so you can blame the next batch of potiticians for your loss!!
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[*] posted on 8-13-2015 at 10:37 PM


Nuts. And after SUCH a lovely summer.
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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 08:11 AM


Just goes to show you, if you pray to the rain gods long enough, or get the rain dance moves just right, one year your prayers may be answered...and possibly not in a good way.



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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 08:20 AM


When the Gods wish to punish us, they answer our prayers.
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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 09:29 AM


Doesn't seem like such a "guess" or baseless prediction. There is actual history and credible science from past El Nino events. I know what the '97 El Nino did to the Walker River, and it collapsed my roof in Lake Tahoe (4 ft. of snow, then 2 ft. of snow, then rain (because the temperature warmed) to weigh it all down). That El Nino event literally caused the Walker River to change course - it wiped out stretches of Hwy. 395, mowed down 1/2 mi. of forest - trees that had been standing for over 100 years.
I live on a bit of a hill - good thing - but I'm still gearing up for this winter; more catchment barrels with drain hoses out to the street. Safe than sorry. I hope Baja's new bridges can withstand floods equal to the ones that toppled them in the past.
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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 09:49 AM


El Ninos are very costly. The 97-98 one did 2.6 billion in property damage and 2 billion in crop damage.

"The overall hit to the U.S. economy: $25 billion."

How that number was arrived at was not explained.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/el-nino-threatens-to-return-cost...

Beach/bluff erosion is a concern for coastal homes.
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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 09:49 AM


Been following the progression of this years event for a few months now. There are tons of models and buoy data capturing the progression of a very strong Kelvin wave traversing the pacific from West to East along the equator. The areas on the equatorial eastern pacific which get charged by these warm waters have been already charged from last years base state. The oceanic gears have been turning for months though...the coupling of atmospheric changes have also been starting to form. The momentum that has been in motion will most likely NOT be stopped until next spring at least.

Last year's failed El Nino was due to the media blowing it up in Feb-May I think. That was way too premature. We are past the uncertainty phase now into August. This massive Kelvin wave is real and is tracked in real time....it will "erupt" in the eastern pacific around Oct/Nov. Will the northern hemisphere and jet streams change to it? Most likely, but... who knows. The fact is that the El Nino this year will be massive, in terms of anomalous warm water in the Nino regions.

Not to mention, remember all the tuna crabs this year? There is a correlation between them an El Nino as well.!

[Edited on 8-14-2015 by BooJumMan]
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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 09:53 AM


When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...
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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 10:09 AM


From what I've read, the biggest impact will be on Baja and Alta California, along with Arizona New Mexico with lots and lots of rain.

So, we'll see lots of flooding and mudslides affecting those dumb enough to build stuff where Nature doesn't want them.




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[*] posted on 8-14-2015 at 10:14 AM


8/13:

NOAA/NWS issued an updated El Nino outlook this morning. The main points are:
· A moderate El Nino event is currently ongoing and strengthening
· The NWS remains highly confident that this El Nino event will continue through the winter and into the early 2016 spring.
· At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors this El Nino to peak sometime this fall or early winter as a strong event.
· This event could be among the strongest El Nino events in recorded history. The 3 strongest El Nino events occurred in: 72/73, 82/83, and 97/98.
· There is a positive correlation between El Nino events and increased tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific hurricane season lasts until November 30th.
· The strongest correlations with enhanced precipitation occur across mainly southern CA during the winter associated with strong El Ninos. There is little-to-no correlation between enhanced precipitation and weak or moderate strength El Ninos.
· Even if California does receive above average precipitation this winter, it likely will not erase a 4 year drought.
· Individual weather storms can produce flooding, even in a drought.

It is important to remember that all El Nino events are different, and produce variable impacts. The graphic I have attached shows the 5 recorded strongest El Nino events since 1950 (note, that is a small sample size), and the precipitation anomalies that were observed. Most show above average precipitation, especially in southern CA, but look at 1965/66 where central and northern CA did not receive increased precipitation. The bottom line is there is a relationship between strong El Nino events and increased precipitation for California, but it is not a guarantee. This is especially true for central and northern California.




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