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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
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One thing is certain, the guys at Princeton and their GFDL model are the best.
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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
Member Is Offline
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Here's the most recent;
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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
Member Is Offline
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Some of these models are scary !
Batten the hatches !!
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Bajagypsy
Super Nomad
Posts: 1416
Registered: 8-31-2006
Location: BahÃa Asuncion BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: Living the dream
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Here is hoping that everyone is still fine when I log on in the morning. Thinking of all my Baja friends as well as all my Bajanomad friends, stay
safe!
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Ken Bondy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3326
Registered: 12-13-2002
Member Is Offline
Mood: Mellow
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Buena suerte amigos.
carpe diem!
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rbwrivers
Junior Nomad
Posts: 59
Registered: 1-22-2007
Location: midwest US
Member Is Offline
Mood: dreaming of Baja
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Stay safe everyone!!!!
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dccf
Junior Nomad
Posts: 98
Registered: 10-20-2007
Location: S. Cal
Member Is Offline
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Our prayers are with you.
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ayeman
Newbie
Posts: 10
Registered: 9-1-2003
Location: kelowna, b.c.
Member Is Offline
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via con dios mi amigos to all on the east cape
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lizard lips
Super Nomad
Posts: 1468
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: EARTH
Member Is Offline
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I was in Cabo when Juliette hit and that was a mess. The bridge washed out and couldn't make it to the airport but a makeshift bridge was constructed
in a matter of a few days. The stores also raised their prices for just about everything. I hope all of you down there stay safe and are prepared!
Good luck......
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Sharrone
Junior Nomad
Posts: 73
Registered: 6-13-2007
Location: El Cardonal, Baja Sur
Member Is Offline
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Good luck everyone down there. Stay safe.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
Member Is Offline
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HURRICANE JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE JIMENA CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
NORTH OF BAHIA MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND
NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO HUATABAMPITO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...345 KM...SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 380 MILES
...610 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...AND VERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY
FIVE STATUS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE
UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHWEST OF JIMENA...HAS REPORTED
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH BATTERING WAVES WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.8N 109.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
Member Is Offline
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HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009
SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS REMAINED
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS
IN A LARGE CDO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND
6.0 FROM SAB AND THE ADT HAS BEEN SHOWING T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA COULD HAVE REACHED
CATEGORY 5 STATUS EARLIER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD
STEADY FOR 12 HOURS...AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED
AS JIMENA WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE
CYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA
PENINSULA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSUMES
THAT JIMENA WILL STILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JIMENA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING JIMENA TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.
IT IS NOW NECESSARY TO EXTEND HURRICANE WATCHES FARTHER NORTH ALONG
BOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT OR ON
TUESDAY.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT
STRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL
HOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE DANGEROUS
IMPACTS WILL EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER REGARDLESS OF THE
LANDFALL LOCATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0300Z 19.4N 109.6W 135 KT
12HR VT 01/1200Z 20.7N 110.4W 135 KT
24HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/1200Z 24.5N 111.9W 110 KT
48HR VT 03/0000Z 26.1N 112.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/0000Z 28.2N 112.8W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 05/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 06/0000Z 31.5N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND
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redhilltown
Super Nomad
Posts: 1130
Registered: 1-24-2009
Location: Long Beach, CA
Member Is Offline
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One more "good luck" to all of you down there can't hurt soooooo...good luck everyone and stay safe!
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
Member Is Offline
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3-day forecast, as of 11pm Pacific Time.
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MarkR.
Newbie
Posts: 24
Registered: 6-4-2009
Location: Martinez, CA
Member Is Offline
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sí, buena suerte amigos
Lisa and I have you in our thoughts
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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Yikes!
The storm surge will most likely be a Pacific Ocean event but they don't really delineate.
Here's the lastest @ stormpulse:
Please take precautions.
[Edited on 9-1-2009 by Sharksbaja]
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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Looks to me the eye is south of where the graphic places it by a 100 miles?
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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bill erhardt
Super Nomad
Posts: 1372
Registered: 4-2-2005
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
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Black clouds ahead over Insurgentes Saturday afternoon, and dust clouds whipped up by gusts of wind in a by-pass around a bridge under construction
over a vado between Puerto Lopez Mateos and Insurgentes. Thunderheads have been releasing periodic downpours in the area for the past couple of days
in advance of Jimenez. Yesterday, Monday, in the calm before the storm wahoo were on the bite outside Mag Bay on Thetis Bank. I ran the still calm
boca at daybreak and had five hoos in the boat before 10:00 a.m. Then, back to Loreto to button down.
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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Thats an impressive photo, very nice.
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bill erhardt
Super Nomad
Posts: 1372
Registered: 4-2-2005
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
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Wind and rain in Insurgentes Saturday
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