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SFandH
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Windy prediction for 8 AM Tuesday
https://www.windy.com/?2026-09-29-15,25.225,-108.282,6,m:egQ...
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AKgringo
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Windy rain forecast model
The only good thing about this "forecast" is that if Polo follows the model, it won't linger over Baja. By mid-day on the 29th it will be slamming
the mainland.
The wannabe storm chaser in me wants to be there, but I guess I will just watch electronically with a cup of coffee in my hand
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2026-09-29-20,...
[Edited on 9-24-2026 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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AKgringo
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A lot of Baja's supply chain comes in at ports in La Paz and Cabo, but IF the Windy long-range model comes to pass, the Cape will get
slammed by another system about a week later!
[Edited on 9-24-2026 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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mtgoat666
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Looks like mag bay and san juanico will take the hit. It will hit coast at Cat 3+ and still be Cat 1 or 2 as it crosses the penninsula.
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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Don Jorge
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Really
dreading how this is going to play out for the entire central Baja Peninsula.
Forecast is absolutely horrendous for both the Pacific and Coretz sides.
Bahia Magdalena is on track to be in the dreaded SE quadrant of a Cat 3 landfall. Then it crosses over to Mulege and Loreto areas all the while
dumping huge amounts of water on the Central Cordillera of Baja California Sur filling every drainage in every direction. Asuncion is on the target
too. Hope Shari, busy preparing now, comes out ok.
How many times have we, me. you, driven across these drainages and wondered how they ever got so wide and wondered about how much violent water must
have created these. We may get first hand experience too soon on this, dam.
I'm old enough to remember El Niño's dating back to the 1960s and got caught in a few doozies while travelling and while farming both in California
and Baja California.
But I've never seen one that had this much potential to rework the landscapes of both places. I'm really worried for my friends and family in Puerto
San Carlos. That town is built on a sand spit, literally.
The way the models look PSC could get a direct hit as guidance keeps shifting east as Hurricane Odalys is punching above her weight and pushing Polo a
bit eastward, poco a poco.
Truly an OH SSSHHIIT is developing in front of our screens hour by hour.
Hope I'm being overdramatic, really, really hope so.
�And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry
years. It was always that way.�― John Steinbeck
"Until a person learns to respect nature and talk to the animal world, he will never know his true role on Earth." Enzo Mallorca
"Nature bats last." Doug "Hayduke" Peac-ck
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Tioloco
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you are being over dramatic. But ok
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pauldavidmena
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From WeatherUnderground, current radar and the forecasted track of Polo, also showing the proximity of Odalys to the west. The storm is expected to
hit central BCS on Monday.
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AKgringo
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I'll bet the gas stations and grocery stores are busy right now!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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SFandH
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mtgoat666
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Looking like tomorrow (monday) is going to be a big, big storm day for san juanico, northern mag bay, insurgentes/constitution, mulege and bahia
Concepcion…
[Edited on 9-27-2026 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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AKgringo
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I seriously doubt that the flood control efforts on the Mulege drainage are going to be able to handle this event! if I was there I would be heading
for high ground, right now!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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SFandH
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Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  | | I seriously doubt that the flood control efforts on the Mulege drainage are going to be able to handle this event! if I was there I would be heading
for high ground, right now! |
A friend who is there now said moving riverside households uphill started Friday.
I think this photo is Hurricane John in the early 2000s.
[Edited on 9-27-2026 by SFandH]
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StuckSucks
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surfhat
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While never attempting to mitigate the damage that happens, the thought of the desert in bloom is a wonder of nature that all of us Nomads should
appreciate when you get the chance.
"Every breath you take" applies in these rare opportunities.
The desert in bloom is a gift that I never wasted.
Breathing deep in that rarefied atmosphere comes highly recommended.
May all of our Nomads in BCS survive what is coming your way.
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StuckSucks
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| Quote: Originally posted by surfhat | | the thought of the desert in bloom is a wonder of nature that all of us Nomads should appreciate when you get the chance. |
Definitely looking forward to a green, blooming desert when we head to Baja Sur in a month.
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AKgringo
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Maybe it won't be as bad as John or Odile
I did a quick search on "John". That event occurred in 2006, and like Odile in 2014, the system traveled up the Cortez side, almost the full length
of the peninsula over much warmer water than Polo is traveling over.
Hopefully Polo will cross quickly before it can dump all its load on land. The wind is a different threat though, and this system appears to be a
stronger storm than the others.
[Edited on 9-27-2026 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Don Jorge
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Las Barrancas and Puerto Lopez Mateo are in the forecast bullseye for a major hurrican landfall. Don't believe this has ever happened.
Puerto San Carlos is going to see lots of rain, wind and surge. Ports boat ramps and fishing activities there have been closed for a few days now.
Everyone knows it is coming and preparations have been made.
Andaban en friega as my tocayo put it. The waiting game has begun.
�And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry
years. It was always that way.�― John Steinbeck
"Until a person learns to respect nature and talk to the animal world, he will never know his true role on Earth." Enzo Mallorca
"Nature bats last." Doug "Hayduke" Peac-ck
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Don Jorge
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Searching
For records of a major hurricane direct hits from Pacific into Bahia Magdelena and nothing but, never say never
Hurricane Jimena (2009): Jimena peaked as a Category 4 storm in the Pacific but rapidly collapsed due to cooler waters. It made landfall in the Bahía
Magdalena region only as a Category 1 hurricane, though it still brought severe flooding to the area.
�And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry
years. It was always that way.�― John Steinbeck
"Until a person learns to respect nature and talk to the animal world, he will never know his true role on Earth." Enzo Mallorca
"Nature bats last." Doug "Hayduke" Peac-ck
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aburruss
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My friends in San Juanico are certainly preparing. Over the past couple of weeks there's already been a LOT of rain and some of the low-lying dirt
roads are still flooded. Securing roofs and belongings is going on for the last few days.
This is gonna be rough for that area!
They were also preparing for the start of lobster season, which is probably going to get pushed out because of this.
I've got a trailer there that I hope stays upright!
 
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Don Jorge
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Yup. No worries. Tropical storm winds and above are quite capable of taking down tin, stick and plywood structures.
Seems it is tracking even farther north now. Good for some bad for others.
Its rainy in Valle de Guadalupe right now.
Desert will be greening up more and pitayas getting plump.
�And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry
years. It was always that way.�― John Steinbeck
"Until a person learns to respect nature and talk to the animal world, he will never know his true role on Earth." Enzo Mallorca
"Nature bats last." Doug "Hayduke" Peac-ck
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