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pauldavidmena
Super Nomad
Posts: 1851
Registered: 5-23-2013
Location: Centerville, MA, USA
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The current forecast track - still 5 days out - shows Polo making landfall midway up the Pacific coast of BCS on September 29th.
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7666
Registered: 8-5-2011
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Windy prediction for 8 AM Tuesday
https://www.windy.com/?2026-09-29-15,25.225,-108.282,6,m:egQ...
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6422
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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Windy rain forecast model
The only good thing about this "forecast" is that if Polo follows the model, it won't linger over Baja. By mid-day on the 29th it will be slamming
the mainland.
The wannabe storm chaser in me wants to be there, but I guess I will just watch electronically with a cup of coffee in my hand
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?rain,2026-09-29-20,...
[Edited on 9-24-2026 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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lencho
Junior Nomad
Posts: 91
Registered: 1-16-2005
Location: Tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de EU
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Mood: Somnoliento
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The middle of the state could
get hammered!
If so, Highway 1 might be "complicado" for a while; time to stock up on goods that normally travel down the Peninsula. 
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is, by how stupid he thinks I
am."
"...they were careful of their demeanor that they not be thought to have opinions on what they heard for like most men skilled at their work they
were scornful of any least suggestion of knowing anything not learned at first hand."
Cormac McCarthy, All the Pretty Horses
"Be kind, be patient, help others." -- Isabel Allende
"My gas stove identifies as electric." Anonymous
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6422
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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A lot of Baja's supply chain comes in at ports in La Paz and Cabo, but IF the Windy long-range model comes to pass, the Cape will get
slammed by another system about a week later!
[Edited on 9-24-2026 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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mtgoat666
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21352
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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Looks like mag bay and san juanico will take the hit. It will hit coast at Cat 3+ and still be Cat 1 or 2 as it crosses the penninsula.
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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Don Jorge
Senior Nomad
Posts: 692
Registered: 8-29-2003
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Really
dreading how this is going to play out for the entire central Baja Peninsula.
Forecast is absolutely horrendous for both the Pacific and Coretz sides.
Bahia Magdalena is on track to be in the dreaded SE quadrant of a Cat 3 landfall. Then it crosses over to Mulege and Loreto areas all the while
dumping huge amounts of water on the Central Cordillera of Baja California Sur filling every drainage in every direction. Asuncion is on the target
too. Hope Shari, busy preparing now, comes out ok.
How many times have we, me. you, driven across these drainages and wondered how they ever got so wide and wondered about how much violent water must
have created these. We may get first hand experience too soon on this, dam.
I'm old enough to remember El Niño's dating back to the 1960s and got caught in a few doozies while travelling and while farming both in California
and Baja California.
But I've never seen one that had this much potential to rework the landscapes of both places. I'm really worried for my friends and family in Puerto
San Carlos. That town is built on a sand spit, literally.
The way the models look PSC could get a direct hit as guidance keeps shifting east as Hurricane Odalys is punching above her weight and pushing Polo a
bit eastward, poco a poco.
Truly an OH SSSHHIIT is developing in front of our screens hour by hour.
Hope I'm being overdramatic, really, really hope so.
�And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry
years. It was always that way.�― John Steinbeck
"Until a person learns to respect nature and talk to the animal world, he will never know his true role on Earth." Enzo Mallorca
"Nature bats last." Doug "Hayduke" Peac-ck
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Tioloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6181
Registered: 7-30-2014
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you are being over dramatic. But ok
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