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Al G
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2647
Registered: 12-19-2004
Location: Todos Santos/Full time for now...
Member Is Offline
Mood: Wondering what is next???
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
hard rain in Mulege and Santa Rosalia. electricity out most of the morning. |
Bruce please keep us posted on the wind and rain. There is no way to know which way it will turn and I hope the people there, are aware, and are
getting ready.
Albert G
Remember, if you haven\'t got a smile on your face and laughter in your heart, then you are just a sour old fart!....
The most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value.
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
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Mood: mellow
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Little windy in Loreto. Funny that Mulege and Santa Rosalia got rain while it somehow bypassed us altogether. Never was even a threat of rain.
Could still use some. Has been an awfull dry summer till John.
A few hours of drenching rain would be nice and also would keep the dust down here in Nopolo, Loreto Bay. And keep the desert nice and green for
another month or so.
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
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Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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Interesting they are predicting it to make a 90 degree turn....I somehow think it will keep up its westerly track....Maybe they are just covering
thier butts since they missed the boat on Paul.
Must be nice to be a weatherman; you can be wrong ALL the time and still get to keep your job 
{edit 10/25 @ 7:00 am} wow this time they knew what they were talking about...
[Edited on 10-25-2006 by Taco de Baja]
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
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Mood: mellow
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The latest.Hurricane Paul Discussion Number 11
Statement as of 2:00 PM PDT on October 23, 2006
based on Air Force reconnaissance data and recent degradation of the
satellite presentation...Paul probably reached its maximum
intensity earlier today and is now weakening. Maximum flight level
winds from the aircraft were 88 kt in the northeast quadrant...so
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt. It would appear that the
increasing vertical shear and dry air are beginning to take their
toll...and since the shear is forecast to continue to increase...
additional weakening is anticipated. The GFDL model continues to
show strengthening taking Paul to a category 3 cyclone within the
next 24 hours. However...in light of the current weakening and
expected increase in shear...the official forecast is closer to the
SHIPS and FSU super ensemble. Once inland over mountainous
Mexico...rapid weakening is expected.
The track forecast remains rather problematic as global
models indicate Paul is now interacting with a large
middle to upper-level trough off the West Coast of California.
This interaction has resulted in a turn toward the north with
the initial motion estimate of 360/4. Paul should begin to
accelerate northeastward later today and tonight as it becomes
embedded within strong southwesterly flow on the eastern side of
the trough. Dynamical models remain divergent in the predicted
forward speed. Not surprisingly...the GFDL is the fastest of the
available dynamical models as it maintains a strong and deep vortex
until landfall. Conversely...the global models show a much weaker
and shallower cyclone resulting in a slower motion. The official
forecast will split the difference between the faster GFDL and the
slower global models...which equates to only a slight adjustment to
the previous advisory.
It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track of
Paul...particularly for residents of southern baja...as a hurricane
is not a point and associated weather extends well beyond the
center. Additionally...only a slight deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring Paul closer to that area.
Forecast positions and Max winds
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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spike
Junior Nomad
Posts: 52
Registered: 10-5-2006
Location: north looking south
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What we do know about weather prediction, seems to be about 10 % of the complete picture. Better to just look out the window, sometimes!
spike
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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It is raining in La Paz, with much thunder.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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spike
Junior Nomad
Posts: 52
Registered: 10-5-2006
Location: north looking south
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With luck, Paul will just peter oy and that will be as bad as it gets.
Spike
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
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Not a drop of rain yet out the east cape road from San Jose. We are all stocked up and await what nature sends us. I'll file reports as things change.
Right now the sun is peeking around some clouds. Warm with light winds, almost calm.
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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spike
Junior Nomad
Posts: 52
Registered: 10-5-2006
Location: north looking south
Member Is Offline
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I guess I meant peter out. Got to check that spelling
Spike
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gnukid
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4411
Registered: 7-2-2006
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In La paz there is a lot of rain suddenly and 3-4 inches of flooding for those us near the water at marina la paz, the thunder is strong and lots of
fun. We are checking the boats and tying em up with double lines and making soup! cuidar tus familias y amantes wooopeee
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
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Mood: Skeptical
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Any word from Mulege? Still raining hard? How's things along the river?
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
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Just got our first squall here on the east cape road. One tenth of an inch of rain and everything smells good. We could see it coming from the south
over the ocean for a couple of miles. Then glorious rain, just enough to not cause runoff. If only it would do this for a few days and nothing
more......
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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Mulege is broken Skye's and breezy right now.
no it takes a lot of rain to bring the river up and we have only had some nice showers.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Rained most/all night but only a breeze to push it. A lot like Wash. I like it but I hope the mulege are doesn't get too much. hope it stops around
daylight.
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Bob H
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5867
Registered: 8-19-2003
Location: San Diego
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Hurricane Paul Peters Out... good news for Southern Baja!
Bob H
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/10/24/paul.ap/index.html
The SAME boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It's about what you are made of NOT the circumstance.
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Bruce R Leech
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6796
Registered: 9-20-2004
Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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it rained all night and still raining steady here in Mulege things are going to stay green for a while.
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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comitan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4177
Registered: 3-27-2004
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Bye Bye Paul.
Strive For The Ideal, But Deal With What\'s Real.
Every day is a new day, better than the day before.(from some song)
Lord, Keep your arm around my shoulder and your hand over my mouth.
“The sincere pursuit of truth requires you to entertain the possibility that everything you believe to be true may in fact be false”
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MrBillM
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21656
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Out and About
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Mood: It's a Zip-a-Dee-Doo-Dah Day
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Petering
If not a record, the rate at which "Paul" intensified and dissipated, is probably close. RIP.
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Paula
Super Nomad
Posts: 2219
Registered: 1-5-2006
Location: Loreto
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A little more rain than I was hoping for here in Loreto this morning   
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tehag
Super Nomad
Posts: 1248
Registered: 1-8-2005
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Loreto
Rain all night, not heavy. Pretty heavy right now, 10am. Arroyos will probably run. Drive with care.
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