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Diver
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4729
Registered: 11-15-2004
Member Is Offline
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HURRICANE RICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A
REMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA. FURTHER
STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS
INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
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Lauriboats
Senior Nomad
Posts: 563
Registered: 9-6-2006
Location: Mulege/Bahia Asuncion
Member Is Offline
Mood: Loving life in Baja
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Strengthening, extremely dangerous, cat 5, not good.
What we see depends mainly on what we look for.
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mulegemichael
Super Nomad
Posts: 2310
Registered: 12-24-2007
Location: sequim,wa. and mulege
Member Is Offline
Mood: up on step
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they just brought the palm fronds for our "replacement" palapa yesterday..the new one we lost in jimena...great!
dyslexia is never having to say you\'re yrros.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13037
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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OH geezo...doesnt look good for those fishing tournaments at all. But sometimes you can fish a day or two after the storm passes...if you can find the
boat!! Lots of structure and hungry fish. the problems will be power outages as it knocks towers down...flooding etc...so make sure you have gas in
advance.
russ...why dont you just come over here for a visit?
So what is with Woody who is always first in predicting these babies???
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msawin
Nomad
Posts: 371
Registered: 8-29-2003
Location: Grass Valley,Ca / Tripui
Member Is Offline
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what to do...
Bought my plane tickets 2 months ago, $330.00 LAX/LTO.
Suppose to leave Tuesday for Loreto. We will see.
martin-o
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Pompano
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8194
Registered: 11-14-2004
Location: Bay of Conception and Up North
Member Is Offline
Mood: Optimistic
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On the way now. ETA about the same time as Rick.
I do what the voices in my tackle box tell me.
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Beachgirl
Nomad
Posts: 206
Registered: 1-1-2008
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Nice timing, Pompano. Maybe we should all make reservations at the Hotel Mulege now??? Getting ready to bag everything...AGAIN....found that tying a
knot doesn't cut it. Have to tape the bags or water gets in them anyway. Hoping this one turns out like Norbert. Seventy plus large garbage bags all
stowed away, hunkered down at the hotel with our camp stove, food and water waiting for a fifteen minute light rain and dark sky, then nothing.
Hoping...guess we will know in a day or two...
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Dianamo
Nomad
Posts: 182
Registered: 12-27-2005
Location: SF Bay Area, CA when not in El Cardonal
Member Is Offline
Mood: ...still in Baja
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where is the history of hurricanes?
during the "Jimena" discussion someone posted an article regarding the history of hurricanes that have hit Baja, but my Nomad search is not yielding
the results, nor my Google search. If someone remembers or can find this post, please direct me.
Minds are like parachutes...they only function when open!
\"The price of apathy is to be ruled by evil men.\" - Plato
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Here is one source
http://csc-s-maps-q.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/
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Dianamo
Nomad
Posts: 182
Registered: 12-27-2005
Location: SF Bay Area, CA when not in El Cardonal
Member Is Offline
Mood: ...still in Baja
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Thanks BajaJudy. I think it was a "Wiki" article, very easy-to-read matrix of the storms, but I can't be certain and still haven't located it.
Minds are like parachutes...they only function when open!
\"The price of apathy is to be ruled by evil men.\" - Plato
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DianaT
Select Nomad
Posts: 10020
Registered: 12-17-2004
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| Quote: | Originally posted by HaciendaCerritos
Sorry everyone, but we won't be posting on Rick. I have to fly up to the US today for a medical emergency involving my daughter. Good luck to you all
- buckle down and hang in there. My thoughts will be with all of you - I pray this bad boy heads West but it doesn't look very promising.
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And my thoughts are with you and your daughter----I do hope all will be OK.
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Dianamo
during the "Jimena" discussion someone posted an article regarding the history of hurricanes that have hit Baja, but my Nomad search is not yielding
the results, nor my Google search. If someone remembers or can find this post, please direct me. |
Dianamo,
Try the Baja Insider. They have quite a weather page.
http://www.bajainsider.com
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Dianamo
Nomad
Posts: 182
Registered: 12-27-2005
Location: SF Bay Area, CA when not in El Cardonal
Member Is Offline
Mood: ...still in Baja
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Thanks Vandenburg, this is the data.
Regarding October storms, notice that Liza hit on Oct 1 as an H4, then Norbert on Oct 11 as an H2. Only four storms have hit after Oct. 17 and only
two after Oct 22 (Thursday is the 22) as tropical storms. Let's hope and pray to 'dog' that Rick follows this pattern and weakens substantially!
Chart from Baja Insider:
http://www.bajainsider.com/weather/hurricanes/historic_hurri...
(sorry the formatting did not copy well)
"October Storms
YEAR DAY STORM NAME WIND SPEED (KTS) CAT
1955 2 NOTNAMED 45 TS
1958 3 NOTNAMED 75 H1
1958 4 NOTNAMED 75 H1
1962 4 DOREEN 75 H1
1963 18 MONA 75 H1
1967 13 OLIVIA 75 H1
1968 2 PAULINE 75 H1
1976 1 LIZA 120 H4
1976 28 NAOMI 40 TS
1978 5 ROSA 60 TS
1981 7 LIDIA 45 TS
1984 3 POLO 40 TS
1985 8 WALDO 75 H1
1986 1 PAINE 80 H1
1986 2 PAINE 80 H1
1987 1 PILAR 30 TD
1990 2 RACHEL 55 TS
1998 19 MADELINE 35 TS
2005 5 OTIS 20 L
2006 25 PAUL 40 TS
2008 11 NORBERT 95 H2
The good news is that by November 1st, like a line in the sand, the threat is over. Since 1950 only three tropical storms have even made it to within
250 miles of Cabo, none of them making land or achieving hurricane strength."
Minds are like parachutes...they only function when open!
\"The price of apathy is to be ruled by evil men.\" - Plato
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13037
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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We will miss your onsite reports HaciendaCerritos...take care of you and yours and we will say a prayer things go well for your daughter as well as
your palapa. Let us know how things go on all fronts.
Maybe this time we will be able to replace our dilapidated palapa? Grmpb will be relieved.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Dianamo
The good news is that by November 1st, like a line in the sand, the threat is over. Since 1950 only three tropical storms have even made it to within
250 miles of Cabo, none of them making land or achieving hurricane strength." |
And the bad news is that hurricane season is not officially over until Nov 30. The way this year has gone quien sabe?
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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Who knows.??
In a few years will we have one named Santa
Or Jingle bells 
[Edited on 10-17-2009 by vandenberg]
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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How Lucky Can You Get?
Just poking around the NOAA site. If what I read is correct, there has been only one tropical depression that has grown to hurricane force in the
Atlantic, as opposed to Rick making number 7 in the Eastern Pacific. What's that all about?
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajahowodd
Just poking around the NOAA site. If what I read is correct, there has been only one tropical depression that has grown to hurricane force in the
Atlantic, as opposed to Rick making number 7 in the Eastern Pacific. What's that all about? |
Maybe the hurricane gods are vacationing in the Carribean.
Heard they'll be in Fiji next year...or maybe Cabo.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajahowodd
Just poking around the NOAA site. If what I read is correct, there has been only one tropical depression that has grown to hurricane force in the
Atlantic, as opposed to Rick making number 7 in the Eastern Pacific. What's that all about? |
Can you say El Nino?
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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OUCH
The 3:00 report has Rick coming closer and closer to Los Cabos and still a hurricane when it hits the mainland. Plus arriving a day early...Wed.
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