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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64855
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Hi Jimmy,
It is so good to hear from you this evening. Sorry that Lupe's tienda is geeting soaked, however.
Please post tomorrow with the latest! Gracias,
David
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Anonymous
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Hurricane Ignacio Discussion Number 14
Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on August 25, 2003
Ignacio has regained central deep convection and an eye feature
briefly reappeared in infrared imagery before becoming cloud
covered again. An initial intensity of 80 kt is maintained based
on the brief eye appearance and a satellite intensity estimate of
77 kt from both TAFB and SAB.
The initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest
...Or 320/02. The short term motion has been erratic at best with
Ignacio having briefly become stationary a couple of hours ago.
However...over the past 72 hours...Ignacio has been basically
moving northwestward...albeit very slowly. The large-scale flow
pattern surrounding the hurricane has changed little based on
25/00z upper-air data indicating essentially little change to the
700 mb and 500 mb winds and heights during the past 24 hours.
Unfortunately...the new NHC model guidance is not in quite as good
agreement as it was in previous runs. The GFS...UKMET...and GFDL
models have now shifted to a track along the west coast of the Baja
Peninsula. Only the NOGAPS and GFDN models keep Ignacio near or
east of the east coast of baja. However...all of the models agree
on maintaining a weak steering flow environment and show a forward
speed of less than 5 kt throughout the 5 day period. The result is
that local mesoscale effects should determine the ultimate track of
Ignacio. Deep convection is more likely to develop and be sustained
over the very warm water...near 32c...of the sea of cortes...and
that should act to keep the center east of or near the east coast
of the Baja Peninsula. The official forecast track is just an
extension of the previous track forecast...which keeps Ignacio near
the east coast of baja. This track is similar to the NOGAPS model.
The slow weakening trend...as in the previous advisory...is retained
in this forecast package. Ignacio remains a small hurricane...which
should allow the cyclone to nearly maintain its current intensity
for the next 12 hours so...especially given the impressive outflow
pattern. However...as the hurricane moves farther to the northwest
...The sea of cortes Narrows significantly north of La Paz and that
is expected to result in a 'squeeze effect' that should inhibit the
low-level inflow...and also create more land interaction.
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Anonymous
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Hurricane Ignacio Intermediate Advisory Number 14a
Statement as of 5:00 am PDT on August 25, 2003
...Ignacio pounding the southeast coast of the Baja California
peninsula...flooding rains occurring...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern Baja California
peninsula from south of san evaristo on the east coast and south of
Bahia Magdalena on the west coast.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern Baja
California peninsula from Loreto to san evaristo and from Puerto
san andresito to Bahia Magdalena. A Tropical Storm Warning is also
in effect for the coast of Mainland Mexico from altata
to topolobampo.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Mainland Mexico
north of topolobampo to huatabampito.
Preparations to protect life and property in the warning area should
have been completed.
At 5 am PDT...1200z..the center of Hurricane Ignacio was located
near latitude 24.2 north...longitude 109.9 west or about 40
miles...70 km...east of La Paz Mexico.
Ignacio is drifting erratically toward the northwest near 2 mph
...4 km/hr... and this general motion is forecast to continue for
the next 24 hours with a slight increase in forward speed. This
motion will keep the center of Ignacio very near the east coast of
southern Baja California today.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the
next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb...28.82 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 20 to 25 inches...locally higher...are possible
in the warning area. These rains will cause life-threatening
flash floods and fast-moving mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center reaches the
coast.
Repeating the 5 am PDT position...24.2 N...109.9 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 2 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 90 mph. Minimum central pressure... 976 mb.
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Debra
Super Nomad
Posts: 2101
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: Port Orchard Wa./Bahia de Los Angeles BC
Member Is Offline
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FYW: The weather channel has been showing video of La Paz. Hang on Jimmy, they are reporting this this is moving so slow (2mph) that it might stick
around forwhile.
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capt. mike
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8085
Registered: 11-26-2002
Location: Bat Cave
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sling time!
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plane down in baja?
we had a work crew at lopez mateos fri and sat.
one of the returning pilots posted on BBP reports of possibly another plane going down in baja over the weekend.
if anyone has info please report. thx.
formerly Ordained in Rev. Ewing\'s Church by Mail - busted on tax fraud.......
Now joined L. Ron Hoover\'s church of Appliantology
\"Remember there is a big difference between kneeling down and bending over....\"
www.facebook.com/michael.l.goering |
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Bob H
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5867
Registered: 8-19-2003
Location: San Diego
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Update on La Paz....
http://www.kentucky.com/mld/kentucky/news/breaking_news/6610...
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Anonymous
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Hurricane Ignacio Intermediate Advisory Number 16a
Statement as of 5:00 PM PDT on August 25, 2003
...Ignacio stalls near La Paz...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southern Baja California
peninsula from south of San Evaristo on the east coast and south of
Bahia Magdalena on the west coast.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southern Baja
California peninsula from Loreto to San Evaristo and from Puerto
San Andresito to Bahia Magdalena. A Tropical Storm Warning is also
in effect for the coast of Mainland Mexico from Altata
to Topolobampo.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for the coast of Mainland Mexico
north of Topolobampo to Huatabampito.
At 5 PM PDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Ignacio was located
near latitude 24.3 north...longitude 110.2 west or very near La Paz
Mexico.
Ignacio has been nearly stationary for the past few hours...
however a slow west-northwestward motion is expected to resume
tonight bringing the center across Bahia La Paz overnight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Ignacio is expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 70 miles...110 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb...29.21 inches.
Extreme storm total rainfall amounts of 20 inches or more are likely
in the warning area. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center reaches the
coast.
Repeating the 5 PM PDT position...24.3 N...110.2 W. Movement
nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum
central pressure... 989 mb.
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BajaBronco
Junior Nomad
Posts: 42
Registered: 8-25-2003
Location: San Diego, California
Member Is Offline
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HELLO EVERYONE!!!
THANKS a bunch for ALL the updates and info guys,... really, really appreciate it!
We were planning on going to spend our little vacation at San Felipe for the labor day weekend... we were soooo excited on this trip... we just found
out about this this evening on the news, soooo devastating news...
Anyone know of the status for this labor day weekend? Ohh mann we were really looking forward to this trip.
Any input on San Felipe this weekend would be great...
Thanks!
P.S. By the way, the date say's '1973' - just wanna let mods know about the date.
It is 12 midnight here in San Diego... Monday!
[Edited on 08-25-1973 by BajaBronco]
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reefrocket
Nomad
Posts: 224
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Idaho
Member Is Offline
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BajaBronco sorry to rain on your parade but all the sources seem to think the storm (leading edge will be to San Felipe by Sat. --
wind in the 70's?
you can track it's progress on the San Felipe web site that David K posted.
sanfelipe.com.mx
then on the left "current weather"
don't think I would want to be there Sat, Sun. & Mon.  
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gilmarlin
Newbie
Posts: 21
Registered: 8-24-2003
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San Felipe Weather
BajaBronco check out http://www.sanfelipe.com.mx/ weather and camping info. I have a place down there so I'm keeping an eye on Iggie. 
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Anonymous
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Tropical Storm Ignacio Intermediate Advisory Number 19a
Statement as of 11:00 am PDT on August 26, 2003
...Ignacio continues weakening over land but still producing heavy
rains...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the east coast of Baja
California from Loreto to La Paz...and for the west coast of Baja
California from Puerto San Andresito to Santa Fe.
At 11 am PDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Ignacio was
located near latitude 25.2 north... longitude 111.3 west or about
70 miles...115 km...south of Loreto on the east coast of Baja
California.
Ignacio is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph ... 6 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will continue moving over southern Baja
California today.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph... 65
km/hr...continued weakening is forecast as the center moves over
land.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center...mainly to the east.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Additional heavy rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches...locally
higher...are still likely over portions of southern Baja
California. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods
and mud slides.
Storm surge flooding and large waves along the coast of Baja
California will gradually subside.
Repeating the 11 am PDT position...25.2 N...111.3 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 3 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 1003 mb.
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Eli
Super Nomad
Posts: 1471
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: L.B. Baja Sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: Some times Observing, sometimes Oblivious.
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Well, I am new to this board, but thought I best jump on in as I figure this just might be the best way to get out the word to many of the folks
up North, but who have homes here in Los Barriles area, that all is fine and dandy on their Baja home front.
As you might imagine, what we are all up to today is clean up.
I made it in to my office today walking from my home North of town. The Buenos Aires Arroyo is closed to anything but foot traffic, but from the
goat ranch North, the coast road is open at least to Boca de Alamo
Every where I look, folks are cleaning up the trash in their yards, but reports of damages to homes themselves have been nil so far. We never did
lose electric & phone here at the office or at the house.
I do know the Storm Centre traveled about 50 km. out in the Gulf. Man, wish you could have seen those waves down in front of my house, looked
about 25 ft. high on Saturday, and bumping into each other like football players do when they get all happy and excited and macho and jump up in the
air and bump chests. Lot more fun to watch Nature do it, truly a wonder to see Nature at her greatest force all about, everywhere you look along the
Sea, what a Show.
I have witnessed more benevolence than havoc wielded by Ignacio and consider it a most positive experience. Besides, We really needed the rain.
I have no idea of how things are looking La Ribbera and South on the coast road. I understand that as of this morning by Baby Brother and his son,
who live in La Ribbera, have been stuck where they both work at Rancho Leanero for 2 days now.
Also, as of today, the road is closed at Las Cuaves and Las Palmas arroyos and that there was more rain in the hills to the West this a.m.,which is
contributing to their flow. I hope the Buenos Aires Arroyo will be passable via four wheel drive by tonight, but who knows the status of the big
arroyos South.
Wouldn't it be awesome if this was the end of the heat for this season. Yeah right, in my wildest dreams. Still, I have seen storms hail the end
of summers heat before, sure would be o.k. with me.
Ah well, just wanted those of you who have ties here in the Los Barriles Area to know that most likly all is fine in Your Baja Home.
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Debra
Super Nomad
Posts: 2101
Registered: 10-31-2002
Location: Port Orchard Wa./Bahia de Los Angeles BC
Member Is Offline
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Thanks for the report......let's hope the next 'hurricane' isn't a swarm of bugs! Glad to hear that all of our friends are okay......
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BajaBronco
Junior Nomad
Posts: 42
Registered: 8-25-2003
Location: San Diego, California
Member Is Offline
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Thanks Guys!!!
Whew*^%$# I was stressin for a bit there... All the info and updates are great, thanks a bunch  ).
Well there is new light to my eyes  We are actually going to make it... I have
been stuck on weather searching when time permits me at work.
Hope all goes well, we dont wanna be parachuting(sp?) into the sea with our tent.
It is 6pm here and I just got off work, so tired and the news is great.
Althou we still dont have a TENT site, lol... they are all FULL and we are just hoping we find a spot or when someone cancells.
~Marissa~
[Edited on 08-25-1973 by BajaBronco]
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Bajabus
Senior Nomad
Posts: 892
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Elias Calles B.C.S. or NC USA
Member Is Offline
Mood: My friends..it's good.
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Thanks a bunch Eli, on the heat ending fuggedaboutit 
Have you heard anything about punta pescadero and the road to it?
"Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked of such a thing."
Dwight David Eisenhower
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akbear
Nomad
Posts: 203
Registered: 8-23-2003
Location: Buena Vista BCS
Member Is Offline
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Thanks
Thanks Eli for your report. For those of us that live there part- time, any news is welcome. How is the roof on the tienda ?
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jimmy smith
Junior Nomad
Posts: 57
Registered: 11-24-2002
Member Is Offline
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roof on the tienda.
Charlie, as you remember that roof was of corrigated steel. Well a couple of sheets went but you can imagine the scandal that one of those things can
make in a 100 MPH wind. The Palo verde tree is a disaster. What the hell, I know of no deaths from Ignacio. Aftrer all that Is my favorite pueblo in
BCS.
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Eli
Super Nomad
Posts: 1471
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: L.B. Baja Sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: Some times Observing, sometimes Oblivious.
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Bajabus, well, how ironic; You know, it was reading your post on Juliet that first got me hooked on Bajanet and the whole discussion board idea to
begin with. I always wanted to say thanks and never got around to it. SO, THANK YOU VERY MUCH, the Juliet reports were awesome. And now I am reporting
to you on Ignacio, my, my, my, turn about, fair play, I'd say.
If You mean Punta Pescadero on the coast road North of Los Barriles, I just talked with a friend from up there. They have electric today, all fared
fine. Water getting in somewhere in the house is a given, but no major problems in any of the houses that I know about personally. Of course, lots of
pruning and cleaning up of the yards, no biggie. Again, all and all, really a most positive experience there also.
I figure since Ignacio came up the gulf, all is honky dory down Todo Santos way, but haven't heard anything either way.
Just called Dona Lupe, she has a distributor out of La Paz in his Volkswagen there with her at the store, so that's a for sure the highway in open
North. Will be glad when Bimbo is back in town, for the moment it is time to get real creative with what we have, which is fine.
I know, I know, sigh......... I am just dreamin that summer heat be gone, it is already starting to build. Still, for the moment, it's most
comfortable in my little office on the North/West Side of the building. See, if I turn on the a.c. in the afternoon. Didn't need it to sleep last
night.
Still hiking the Buenos Aires arroyo to come in to town from the North coast road. A few trucks have made it across though. Still, everyone's
favourite entertainment is to sit on the bank and watch the one get stuck that didn't.
My baby bro. finally took a boat home from Leanero to La Ribbera last night.
Heard that it's still only foot traffic making it across the arroyo at Las Cuavas. Our crew headed out a few hours ago for El Rincon & Cabo Pulmo in
the big four wheel drive. Still, waiting to hear how they fared getting there. They have to pass both the Las Cuavas Arroyo and La Ribbera South to
get where they are going. Will post when I know more about that direction.
Just got the word that Chuck Potter made it in from La Ribbera in his four wheel drive, so means that something is open for passing somewhere out
there between La Ribbera and Los Barriles.
In fin, from my perspective sitting here; All and all, it's just plain honky dory here in Los Barriles.
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Bajabus
Senior Nomad
Posts: 892
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: Elias Calles B.C.S. or NC USA
Member Is Offline
Mood: My friends..it's good.
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Hey Eli thats so cool how life works. It has been my experience that there are a million stories like ours in Baja. You help your neighbor or a
complete stranger and a few days, months or years down the line they end up helping you out. Your informative posts are much appreciated and welcome.
Juliette pounded the hell out of us and at one point I was very scared but I would do it all over again in a heartbeat. Your description of the
ocean re-conjured up the images of gigantic waves as far as I could see relentlessly hurtling themselves against the beach and traveling hundreds of
yards up the San Jacinto arroyo. I was mesmerized by them and found it difficult to take myself away from the window and put the blanket back down
over it. Thanks again.
"Preventive war was an invention of Hitler. Frankly I would not even listen to anyone seriously that came and talked of such a thing."
Dwight David Eisenhower
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Msal
Junior Nomad
Posts: 46
Registered: 10-20-2002
Member Is Offline
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Hola Eli, So glad all is well! I have to say I kinda wish I were there to feel the force of nature! So Cal is boring in comparison to most anthing! Is
Roo all better? Abrazos, Sally
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