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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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You can't trust a hurricane....(Baja Buddha-circa 1941)
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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| Quote: | Originally posted by AKgringo
Can someone tell me if these are six different possibilities created by the same program, or predictions of six different programs? Has your
experience shown any one model to be more reliable than another?
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I'm uncertain of the relevance of whether it's the same program or not - these are six different forecasts based upon whatever different variables and
historic information are being used with each.
More details are here:
http://stormfacts.net/models.htm
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/models.asp
[Edited on 10-1-2014 by BajaNomad]
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
Member Is Offline
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I think NOAA is really missing the boat not including the Nomad model, what with all the forecasters here, but without our Amateur Junior Associate
Part Time Meteorologist (DavidE) we're lacking somewhat! 
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
[Edited on 10-2-2014 by BajaNomad]
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014
...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/H...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
THURSDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM SIMON JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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oh boy
just got power back yesterday
my remaining plants do need some water
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vjfamily
Junior Nomad
Posts: 63
Registered: 9-13-2004
Member Is Offline
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Judy : so good to see you back, congrats on getting power.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13039
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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do I look worried? nahhhh...it never rains here..until it does! my crystal ball is a bit foggy this morning but I would be surprised if Simon doesnt
start spinning more over the next couple days. I am leaning west but that hook might get interesting.
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tiotomasbcs
Super Nomad
Posts: 1837
Registered: 7-30-2007
Location: El Pescadero
Member Is Offline
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I'm trying to head south but It looks like this one will land somewhere? Hope not! Nuff rain, verdad? Howz the road along the Bay of Concepcion, El
Parador construction areas? I'm ready for a few Pacificos and fish tacos!
Tio
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15938
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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120 hours to landfall as of this mornings model run. right into Mag Bay as of now.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13039
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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I have found this stormsurfing site to be very accurate...Woody has predicted these storms when they were mere puffs...they must have a top of the
line crystal ball eh!
So many storms follow this patter...the first few projections have it coming straight for us in Asuncion...then they get sucked over eastward by the
high seatemps in the gulf..passing over Mag Bay and nailing the Mulege area with rain...ruh roh.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15938
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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it is VERY accurate inside 90 hours.
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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
Member Is Offline
Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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Wow, that forecast for Japan startled me too. Looks like it will knock out the F1 Japanese Grand Prix.
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15938
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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yeah, those are REAL BIG storms over there.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
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Not a pretty sight.
"YOU CAN'T LITTER ALUMINUM"
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4981
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014
...SIMON STRENGTHENS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. SIMON IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SIMON SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO
ISLAND ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SIMON COULD BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS
WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...COLIMA...WESTERN JALISCO AND
NAYARIT IN WESTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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