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dtbushpilot
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Quote: Originally posted by StuckSucks  | 8/13:
NOAA/NWS issued an updated El Nino outlook this morning. The main points are:
· A moderate El Nino event is currently ongoing and strengthening
· The NWS remains highly confident that this El Nino event will continue through the winter and into the early 2016 spring.
· At this time, the forecaster consensus unanimously favors this El Nino to peak sometime this fall or early winter as a strong event.
· This event could be among the strongest El Nino events in recorded history. The 3 strongest El Nino events occurred in: 72/73, 82/83, and 97/98.
· There is a positive correlation between El Nino events and increased tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific
hurricane season lasts until November 30th.
· The strongest correlations with enhanced precipitation occur across mainly southern CA during the winter associated with strong El Ninos. There is
little-to-no correlation between enhanced precipitation and weak or moderate strength El Ninos.
· Even if California does receive above average precipitation this winter, it likely will not erase a 4 year drought.
· Individual weather storms can produce flooding, even in a drought.
It is important to remember that all El Nino events are different, and produce variable impacts. The graphic I have attached shows the 5 recorded
strongest El Nino events since 1950 (note, that is a small sample size), and the precipitation anomalies that were observed. Most show above average
precipitation, especially in southern CA, but look at 1965/66 where central and northern CA did not receive increased precipitation. The bottom line
is there is a relationship between strong El Nino events and increased precipitation for California, but it is not a guarantee. This is especially
true for central and northern California. |
That is a lot of words to say we are in a moderate El Niño event and we might get more rain than usual but then again we might not....or did I miss
something?
"Life is tough".....It's even tougher if you're stupid.....
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bajabuddha
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I read the article too. The gist of the thing is this El Niño is shaping up to possibly be the strongest most potent one to happen since data was
first recorded in 1950.
That in itself is newsworthy. To some.
It didn't predict any weather events, as a matter of fact it threw all standard patterns out the door, as this is a global phenomenon that affects
global weather patterns. So, gitcha popcorn ready.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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motoged
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| Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron | When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...
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Good point.....it is a meteorological issue....some folks just have a narrow lens of perception.
Don't believe everything you think....
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Sweetwater
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| Quote: Originally posted by motoged | | Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron | When did El Nino become a liberal/conservative argument? Unless someone is wrongly associating an El Nino event with global warming...
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Good point.....it is a meteorological issue....some folks just have a narrow lens of perception. |
Yup, some folks just have their own agenda....our buddy Chabon has just passed through Kamloops in the past couple days....he's having a great ride on
his moto. What's really impressive to me is the hot spots of ocean that are so far north.....maybe that Kali drought will be ended.....and replaced by
mudslides? Seems to have been good for fishing along the entire Pacific coast.
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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vandenberg
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Hey, there is a chance both Gore and Biden will be in the running, so those issues should be resolved in short order.
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Alm
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What else is new...
A month ago there were articles already that El Nino 2015 was going to set a new record and become stronger than 1997. Now they merely confirm this.
Here in (usually) cool and rainy PNW, the heat wave and drought are unbelievable. Temps since late May are 6-8 degrees above historical averages for
the last 30 years, day and night, and no rain at all. Forest fires everywhere. Last month I had to drive out of town for a week because PM 2.5 (air
quality, smoke in other words) was 30 times higher than normal for this area, and 10 times higher than safe norm established by World Health
Organization. You couldn't see the sun, it was all grey and hazy.
For this region El Nino 2015 will most likely live up to the forecasts. You guys can make jokes all you want, like warm is a new norm, "power seekers
to protect us from", etc etc. I see what I see - severe climate change and warming.
[Edited on 8-15-2015 by Alm]
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bajabuddha
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........And another one bites the dust............
FFFFLLLLUUUUUUUSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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chuckie
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Over 90 here in Lewistown Montana yesterday.....eh?
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Alm
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Another few (hundred?) millions, I think. There will be climate refugees soon, if it goes like that. Not necessarily due to sea level rise, the
estimates vary from 3mm = 1/8" a year to 20ft over 30 years, nobody can tell because changes of that scale never happened before. Arctic shield is
thawing, but not all the water gets to the ocean, some goes into atmosphere and some stays in the ice, making it sponge-like. Eventually it will get
there, and then there may be 10ft rise in a few years after several years of no change.
Another problem is the warming and changes in seasonal patters. Here where I live, dry and hot spell usually lasts 2-3 weeks. Last summer it was 2
months, and there was no major El Nino. This year, because of the El Nino, it's been hot and dry for 3 months already, and no sign of relief in view.
Costs a lot of money to local and federal budgets too.
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sargentodiaz
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Some indications are there will be more rain in California and south with dry, cold pattern in Oregon north.
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Sweetwater
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Is it storm season yet?
5 in the Pacific and 2 in the Atlantic.....here comes Godzilla.....
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?&MR=1
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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David K
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Yup, but no storms affecting the Californias since Dolores in July and the brief rain a few days after, that soaked us near Mulegé!
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Mexitron
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Curious weather pattern in Texas---in May the state was inundated with literally feet of rain, then half way through June the spigot got turned off
and Texas went thru the 4th driest long streak in state history in latter June, July, and up to a couple days ago in August.
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wessongroup
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July was Earth's hottest month ever recorded
That may mean something ... given the amount of water that covers the planet
Hell of a large "heat sink" ... just saying 
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Mexitron
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wessongroup--if you haven't seen this article, pretty amazing read, the mother of all El Ninos, 66 inches of precip in LA in 1861:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers...
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Ateo
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All I know is the surf has SUCKED this summer here in SOCAL.
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Ateo
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Thanks. Fun read and SCARY!
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AKgringo
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I grew up in the Grass Valley, Nevada City area, and was not aware of the extent of the floods in the central valley, just that they used to happen.
By the way, Nevada City is in California, about 65 miles north of Sacramento. It took the name Nevada, before there was a state that used it.
There have been massive flood control measures that have happened since those days, but much of it is old, and I doubt that it could handle such a
deluge. Beside that, there are now communities in places that in the old days were expected to flood, with not enough development to justify the cost
of flood control.
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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sargentodiaz
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They had a severe snowstorm last night in Calgary, Canada.
[Edited on 8-23-2015 by sargentodiaz]
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bajabuddha
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Instead of pumping oil from Canada for the rich Fat Cats to get richer and fatter off of, has anyone given any thought to pumping WATER instead? As
in, even from the western Great Lakes or southern Lake Michigan, and using some of that resource to refill both groundwater aquifers in the Midwest,
and taking it over low passes into Kalifornia? Water will probably be more valuable than crude oil in the next 50 years i'm willing to wager.
Because of the '82-'83 El Niño events (gee, hope i'm on the right thread this time) Utah's Governor Norm Bangarter spent ump-teen million dollars to
build a set of pumps on the west shoreline of the Great Salt Lake to "keep it from flooding urban areas" (yeah, right) because the lake level rose
incredibly fast, even inundating a short section of the I-80 corridor..... it was used for ONE or TWO years, total.... and has sat, rusted, and rotted
away now for over 30 years, with the lake level at its' record lowest at the moment (or close to it). Truth be known, ol' Norm was in bed with AMAX
Chemical Corp. and a few other mineral-miners that loved all that chemical-laden water pumped out into their settling ponds west of the lake, that i'm
sure they're still making beau coup bucks on to this day.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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