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mtgoat666
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Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 AM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023
Hilary's satellite presentation has continued to improve overnight,
with a solid ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a warming eye.
TAFB and SAB provided consensus Dvorak estimates of T6.0/115 kt
while objective estimates are a bit higher, between 125-135 kt.
The advisory intensity is therefore set at 125 kt as a blend
of the various estimates. Hilary has rapidly intensified by a
remarkable 65 kt over the past 24 hours. The hurricane remains
large, and the initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a
recent ASCAT-C pass. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Hilary around midday and
should provide a more precise estimate of the hurricane's intensity.
The hurricane continues to move toward the west-northwest, or 300/11
kt. However, with mid-tropospheric high pressure nudging eastward
from the Rocky Mountains into the Central Plains, and a cut-off low
off the California coast, Hilary is expected to turn northwestward
very soon and then turn northward and begin accelerating by 48
hours. The track guidance is more tightly clustered than usual
during the first 72 hours of the forecast, and therefore there is
relatively high confidence in the NHC track forecast, which is
essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Since Hilary's
forecast track parallels the coast from the central Baja California
peninsula northward to southern California, it is still nearly
impossible to predict an exact landfall location, not to mention
that Hilary's exact landfall probably won't make much difference
when it comes to the expected hazards and impacts in the region.
Hilary could strengthen a little more during the next 12 hours or
so. However, once hurricanes reach major hurricane strength, they
are prone to fluctuations in intensity, particularly if an eyewall
replacement begins. In addition, oceanic heat content will be
dropping significantly in 24-36 hours, and it's likely that Hilary's
large wind field will mix up cooler water ahead of the arrival of
the center. This colder water, as well as potential interaction
with the terrain of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to
induce faster weakening over the weekend, with Hilary likely to drop
below hurricane intensity some time on Sunday. Due to its
accelerating motion in 2 to 3 days, Hilary is still expected to be
producing tropical-storm-force winds when it reaches southern
California. The surface circulation is likely to dissipate soon
after moving into California, but a day 4 remnant low point is still
shown over the western U.S. for continuity purposes.
[Edited on 8-18-2023 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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RFClark
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The Bit*h is back
The outer bands apptoch BCS. I’ll post pictures as long as possible.
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SFandH
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Oh, just great. I have a house renovation project that's not ready to be rained upon. Strong winds could be a problem, too. I have major work ahead of
me today and tomorrow to get ready for the storm.
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RFClark
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We’re ready! Were we paranoid enough?
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mtgoat666
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I dont think most of BCS has much to worry about. But anything north of san ignacio is gonna get hammered. The mountains and east slope of mountains
are gonna get huge amount of rains. Gonna lose some bridges and roads... Bola gonna have a river running high. Even pac coast areas going to get 2+
inches…
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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lewmt
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Windy is now showing the track veering inland much further south than NOAA & even their own forecasts earlier. It'll be interesting to see which
service is more accurate.
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RFClark
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lencho,
Murphy will always outbid your worst nightmares!
So we’ll see. Wind should stay under 90km/hr for this one.
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EngineerMike
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Folks in Mulegé carting out furniture & fridges to storage on higher ground. Hil is fairly wide and there will be rain over the Pacific/Cortez
drainage divide so some amount of flash flooding is likely unless the storm tracks further west fairly soon.
Drainage thru Sta. Rosalia also going to see runoff.
Director, Mulege Student Scholarship Program
Oasis Rio Baja #M-3, & Auburn, CA
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JZ
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What's the worst case scenario for LA in terms of wind/rain.
Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water? I doubt it, but thought I'd ask.
Right now, the NOAA forecast is showing gusts to 45mph on Monday.
[Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ]
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AKgringo
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Quote: Originally posted by JZ  |
Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water?
[Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ] |
I recommend that you verify that your bilge pump is functioning, and has a reliable power supply. I have seen boats in Southeast Alaska take on
enough rainwater to sink while moored.
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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JZ
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| Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo | | Quote: Originally posted by JZ |
Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water?
[Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ] |
I recommend that you verify that your bilge pump is functioning, and has a reliable power supply. I have seen boats in Southeast Alaska take on
enough rainwater to sink while moored. |
Good idea. Pumps and batteries are good. It's a center console, so most of the water runs out on it own.
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AKgringo
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There are some changes coming that could be bad, but there may be some good come out of it as well. I am thinking of the Salton Sea, Lake Mead, and
maybe some flushing of the lower Colorado River!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: Originally posted by JZ | What's the worst case scenario for LA in terms of wind/rain.
Do I need to think about taking my boat out of the water? I doubt it, but thought I'd ask.
Right now, the NOAA forecast is showing gusts to 45mph on Monday.
[Edited on 8-18-2023 by JZ] |
reality sometimes different than forecast... The thing about high winds is that most of our trees, docs, roofs, etc., have not been stressed like
this before, and this will be the test. so will your dock survive?? you'll find out
the force of wind acting across many boats tied to a dock may determine if the dock is anchored well.
one thing i have seen is that securely tied boats may be damaged by another boat that breaks free because it was not moored well...
my san diego neighborhood has only seen high winds once since I have been in this house. a micro-burst during a t-storm hit a few blocks away and
shredded every tall tree on the block. was a huge mess.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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JZ
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https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZT8NooqdS/ 
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StuckSucks
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A friend has a 48' sailboat in Marina del Rey. This morning we went down and dropped the jib, also secured other stuff for weather. BTW this was a
big-axe/heavy jib.
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JZ
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| Quote: Originally posted by StuckSucks | | A friend has a 48' sailboat in Marina del Rey. This morning we went down and dropped the jib, also secured other stuff for weather. BTW this was a
big-axe/heavy jib. |
Was in MDR the last 3 days. Just left this afternoon.
Place I stayed at was at the docks.
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Bajazly
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Why would you leave the jib, or any other sail for that matter up when docked?
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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mtgoat666
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Best to take down roller furler sails in a storm for moored boats. If the sails come loose, the boat catches more wind, and chaos ensues
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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StuckSucks
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| Quote: Originally posted by JZ |
Was in MDR the last 3 days. Just left this afternoon.
Place I stayed at was at the docks.
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His slip is near the old Chart House.
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Bajazly
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| Quote: Originally posted by mtgoat666 |
Best to take down roller furler sails in a storm for moored boats. If the sails come loose, the boat catches more wind, and chaos ensues
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Ya think? Pretty much applies whenever a vessel is moored or docked.
Believing is religion - Knowing is science
Harald Pietschmann
"Get off the beaten path and memories, friends and new techniques are developed"
Bajazly, August 2019
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