just back from boarding up the casita in San roque...which is evacuated now. The swell is increasing and it is high tide right now and has already
breached the area closest to the main street....tomorrow we might have Rio benito juarez!!...this is by the gas station where the segundas set up and
where it floods a river once it starts raining...no wind...very hot...rain on the horizon in different places.
still selling beer!!
I just went outside to look down at the Beach Club - with their lights on you can see the surf. The water is licking at their main steps right now. I
can't see down the beach, only right here, but the waves are crashing in and the wind has not let up at all. I had to hide behind a pillar to keep
from being pushed around.
Interesting Utube presentation, but I don't think you've seen nothing yet! I can't believe all of these people are hanging out at the waterfront with
a CAT3 approaching! Wow.
Bob H
After seeing the storm surge at Pedregal, and knowing Jimena passed you guys by, I cannot imagine what the storm surge will be like when she finally
comes ashore.
To all you guys on the lower west shore - stay safe, our thoughts and prayers are with you.
Thanks for the video Baja News, interesting to hear what I assume were those rocks rattling down the stream as they were rolling along. Mother Nature
deserves respect.
Stay Safe, our thoughts are with you.
Thank you all who have been posting on Jimena. I have been following faithfully. We have a casita in Los Barilles, north beach, and have been
wondering how much rain/wind has been falling.
I feel the need to be there to help clean up. Any updates for this area would truley be appreciated!
Stay safe all!
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
AT 8 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST
TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST TO BAHIA
SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST
COAST TO PUNTA EUGENIA...AND NORTH OF MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT
125 MILES...205 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF JIMENA WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JIMENA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH A
MORE RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.2N 111.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.
HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009
SINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SHRINKING OF
THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FURTHERMORE...THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT
DETERIORATION TO THE INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO
T4.5 AND T5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE BUT ALSO USING CONTINUITY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THAN
BEFORE. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. ACCORDING TO
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...JIMENA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FORECAST OF LOWER CONFIDENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS.
A MINORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS TAKES JIMENA NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ONLY ONE TAKING IT INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A LARGER NUMBER OF MODEL RUNS EITHER
STALL JIMENA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...LIKE THE GFDL...OR TURN
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WESTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC IN
RESPONSE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHIFTED
INITIALLY TO THE RIGHT DUE TO THE CURRENT MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.
THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS
BEEN TRENDING MORE WESTWARD.
THE WEAKENING CAUSED BY AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS
CONTINUED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF GRADUALLY COOLER SSTS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. UW CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGESTS 10-15 KT OF
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER JIMENA...WHICH SEEMS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE MORE
ASYMMETRIC ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE AGREES
WELL ON A CONTINUED...STEADY WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...STRONGER
WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE CENTER TRACKING MOVING OVER LAND SHOULD LEAD
TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING... WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLING
FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. THERE REMAINS A
CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST AFTER
LANDFALL.
INTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG
WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO
PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS
ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME
DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS
LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.
well looks like she's weakening faster than expected...which will make us all sleep better here tonight. All that boarding for nothing...good practise
though...now we'll see what the rain brings particularly if it stalls over mid baja...night all.
...Mulege is in for it's third tropical 'flushing' in four years! Continued reports of 5-10 inches of rain in that whirling formation to be dumped
over Baja Sur don't bode well for the estuary below town...I sure feel for all of you that may face another 'mud' intrusion, along with the high water
in your casa's...it's just not fair!
Too bad there's a not a huge reservoir back in the hills to the West to contain and 'save' some of this run off for later use...
According to my clock...anytime is \'BAJA TIME\' & as Jimmy Buffett says,
\"It doesn\'t use numbers or moving hands It always just says now...\"
a year and a half ago we headed west from muleje and the arroyos were still full of trees that had been uprooted. it was scary even then to imagine
what caused all that destruction. with water roaring through the mountains i can't even imagine how bad it really was/is.....
"If it were lush and rich, one could understand the pull, but it is fierce and hostile and sullen.
The stone mountains pile up to the sky and there is little fresh water. But we know we must go back
if we live, and we don't know why." - Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
"People don't care how much you know, until they know how much you care." - Theodore Roosevelt
"You can easily judge the character of others by how they treat those who they think can do nothing for them or to them." - Malcolm Forbes
"Let others lead small lives, but not you. Let others argue over small things, but not you. Let others
cry over small hurts, but not you. Let others leave their future in someone else's hands, but not you." - Jim Rohn
"The best way to get the right answer on the internet is not to ask a question; it's to post the wrong answer." - Cunningham's Law
Thankyou to Baja Bound
Mexico InsuranceServices for your long-term support of the BajaNomad.com Forums site.
Emergency Baja Contacts Include:
Desert Hawks;
El Rosario-based ambulance transport; Emergency #: (616) 103-0262
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