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Author: Subject: Megadrought Predictions
bajacamper
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[*] posted on 4-13-2015 at 07:11 PM


India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, has indicated that he will not submit to Western pressure on cutting CO2 emissions.

In the lengthy run up to the international climate conference (‘COP21’) in Paris later this year, Modi’s comments will be sure to cause consternation amongst climate campaigners. Indeed, since his investiture last May last year, the Guardian has expressed concern that he might be (gasp!) a climate sceptic.

As the third largest CO2 emitter behind China (1st) and the U.S. (2nd), climate negotiators are keen to secure some kind of meaningful agreement to reductions from India at the Paris negotiations. However, Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has pursued a development agenda that is at odds with Western hand-wringing. The BJP has opened up the nation’s coal mining industry in a bid to meet domestic demand. It has also taken on environmentalist groups such as Greenpeace, regarding the latter as inimically hostile to India’s economic success.

Modi has made some conciliatory remarks aimed at the anti-CO2 lobby about switching to “cleaner” energy sources. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that India’s energy demands will continue to grow by 2.8% per year and that most of this will be met through increased fossil fuel production.

It is possible that India may elect to follow China’s method of sidestepping this issue previously by making further promises to reduce ‘Carbon intensity’ rather than overall CO2 emissions. This means reducing the emissions per capita (per person) rather than adhering to a total emissions cap. China has failed to adhere to its own commitment on this, though it was sufficient to mollify climate negotiators at the time.

Ultimately though, Modi’s position highlights the continuing hypocrisy of Western governments who demand such restrictions with no regard for Indian or Chinese aspirations for their citizens to achieve a Western standard of living.

Just another view.
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[*] posted on 4-13-2015 at 07:15 PM


How ya going to keep them down on the farm ... as the old saying goes ...

Difficult to tell Billions of folks ... well, sorry, but thats the way it has to be ...

[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]
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[*] posted on 4-13-2015 at 07:27 PM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
Quote: Originally posted by Cliffy  
WHOA! Boy where did this drift come from after my commentary on evolutionary process of the planet Earth?

It's my contention that man is just another evolutionary process being "controlled" by the Earth's long history and it's uncontrollable processes.
Mankind MAY have some influence on the earth's processes but in the end the earth will win and do what ever it wants to do and that will be a long long time after any of our relatives are gone.



Mother Nature ALWAYS Bats Last!

It's good to try and be clean and green, but unless the other 7 billion people do, to pressure, shame, blame, guilt the 320 million (1/3 of 1 billion) Americans is quite hypocritical or at least unfair and unrealistic.

In the end, no matter how clean and green we become, the climate is STILL going to change when ever it wants to.


DK:
gringos are worst polluters. gringo per capita CO2 emission rate is worst. gringos are wasteful! the most wasteful!

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/sci...




[Edited on 4-14-2015 by mtgoat666]
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[*] posted on 4-13-2015 at 07:41 PM


Quote: Originally posted by bajacamper  
India’s Prime Minister,

Ultimately though, Modi’s position highlights the continuing hypocrisy of Western governments who demand such restrictions with no regard for Indian or Chinese aspirations for their citizens to achieve a Western standard of living.

Just another view.


It's no different than Israel telling Iran they can't build nuclear weapons:light:




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[*] posted on 4-13-2015 at 08:08 PM


Me thinks India has more immediate problems ....

Continued attempts to expand the production of food and fiber has necessarily placed even greater demands on "their" water supply .. and this coming year and perhaps others may have a rather negative impact on the ability to produce ... in qualities necessary to feed the people, let alone enter into "trade" with other countries ... in finished farm produce .. let alone "decrease" co2 ... they are running on empty most of the time

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_India

And to think population isn't a factor in India ... Well, it takes all kinds

Not to mention the problems of human waste disposal ....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?sid=aErNiP_V4RLc&pid=...

A bit dated, but, as I understand the current situation .... it hasn't really changed

And goat ... its the United States ... which just happens to be around 70% white ... as most folks SOB do tend to think of other Mexican's as gringo's ... "whitewashed" maybe ... but, definitely not Gringo

And if we are only kicking out 17% considering how much "oil" we use ... we HAVE made some progress ... which IMHO is good .. .as it used to be much higher, in the 60s and 70s as I recall

That we become more efficient and less polluting is only positive long term for the human species and the United States of America in particular

Being free of OPEC and a few other nagging problems ... could make a big change in how we live .. :):)

I'm betting on science via the LHC ... to develop something which can move us a "quantum leap" forward in many things which have been holding us back as a species



[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]
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[*] posted on 4-13-2015 at 09:28 PM


And again, on topic, the biggest population centers for the globe are having to address and deal with these same issues. Even though they lie at the base of the highest mountains with their melting glaciers, China is facing significant fresh water shortages. This weeks Business Week notes that they plan to use a lot of energy to produce fresh water through massive desalination projects. Some 400 cities in China are facing this fresh water shortage with the projects planned for 2019. Their plans are noted to be the most ambitious but other countries developing and implementing desalination facilities include Israel, Spain, the US and Australia. The current need is based in California, San Diego investing $1billion to begin converting Pacific seawater by 2016 at a rate off 50 million gallons of potable water per day.

Denial is a river, a state of mind, or maybe just futile? The real world we live in has our footprints, fingerprints and excretion all over it......




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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 10:16 AM
The End Is Near


My life will come to an end soon if this keeps up......:biggrin:

Due to water consumption needed to grow almonds.... ( 1 gallon is needed to produce 1 almond nut), there is a movement afoot to bring farmers into the fray.

Years ago I discovered the pleasures of almond butter (roasted is better), and have preferred it to peanut butter for a range of reasons ( and don't get me started on cashew butter.....proof there might be a god looking out for us).

Now, there is a movement against the almond industry in California....

hmmmmm????? golf courses, swimmimg pools, and misting stations.....OR almond butter?????

http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/almond-backlash-tied-to-california-drought-1.3031125




Don't believe everything you think....
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 10:27 AM


Almonds use a lot of water but the cattle industry is by far the largest user growing alfalfa and hay. Eat less beef and we'll have plenty of water. Residential,golf courses, etc. only account for 20 percent of the water used in CA.
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 10:34 AM


“Whiskey is for drinking—water is for fighting.”

Mark Twain
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 10:39 AM


Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron  
Almonds use a lot of water but the cattle industry is by far the largest user growing alfalfa and hay. Eat less beef and we'll have plenty of water. Residential,golf courses, etc. only account for 20 percent of the water used in CA.


your comparison is ridiculous. you fail to point out that gross sales of almonds is less than meat/dairy.

to evaluate crops use or abuse of water, a more useful comparison than total water used would be

quantity of water per calorie of food product produced
quantity of water per acre of specific crop produced
quantity of water per gross sales of crop produced

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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 10:53 AM


No Almonds ... Big hit to the Bee Industry and to Blue Dimond ... just saying

Will say, that I like Alfalfa ... over Almonds

But, that is because I loved the smell ... in the early morning after a cut ...

One of the best smells out there ... in Production Ag ... IMHO :):)

Feed lots, chickens, turkeys and a few others, which also use a lot of water .... not so much :biggrin::biggrin:



[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 10:58 AM


Not ridiculous---I'm saying in overall water use for CA almonds use quite a bit (up to possible 10% of irrigation water). Cattle use upwards of 33 percent and more when considering hay and alfalfa.
Read 'Diet for a Small Planet' and look at some water use charts for California---its all there goat. But, specifically, since you asked---cattle consume 25 times the amount of energy that we get back from them in calories so either way you look at it cattle are expensive (and subsidized heavily I might add). By comparison chickens are 2.5-3 units of energy per returned calorie. And per your first comparison lettuce and other greens would have zero value since they provide essentially no calories...so rethink your database queries.
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 11:02 AM


Here's some info on cattle and water:

http://www.publiclandsranching.org/htmlres/wr_guzzling_water...

"When people think of California and water, they often imagine sprawling cities dotted liberally with swimming pools and watered lawns; legions of vain auto owners washing their SUVs, sports cars, and minivans; and endless acres of verdant golf courses - all sucking down rivers both near and far. This image is partly correct - rivers are going dry. But the major reason is not direct consumption by humans - urbanites running sprinklers on their front yards and the like. In California, the major user of water is agriculture, and within agriculture, the thirstiest commodity is the cow.

Overall, agriculture accounts for 83 percent of all water used in California. It's true that California grows the majority of America's fruits and vegetables, so liberal use of water by its agricultural sector would not be unexpected. However, few people would suspect that growing feed for cattle is the predominant agricultural use of water in California. In 1997, 1.7 million acres of the state were planted to alfalfa alone. Irrigated pasture and hayfields consume more water than any other single crop in California - more than a third of all irrigation water. 1 Together, alfalfa and hay and pasturage account for approximately half of all water used in the state.

The story is similar in other western states. In Colorado, some 25 percent of all water consumed goes to alfalfa crops. 2 In Montana, agriculture takes 97 percent of all water used in the state, and just about the only irrigated crop there is hay and pasture forage; more than 5 million acres in the state are irrigated hay meadows. 3 In Nevada - the most arid state in the country - domestic water use amounted to 9.8 million gallons a day in 1993. By contrast, agriculture used 2.8 billion gallons of water per day. 4 Altogether, agriculture uses 83 percent of Nevada's water 5 - and the major crop is hay for cattle fodder. In Nevada, while cow pastures are flood irrigated, wetlands at wildlife refuges and the state's rivers often go bone-dry. 6

Cows are poorly adapted to arid environments. They are profligate consumers of water. Beef production demands an estimated 3,430 gallons of water just to produce one steak! 7 Most western rangelands simply don't provide enough forage alone - because the climate is too dry - to run livestock economically. Supplemental feed and irrigated pasture are also needed. Many of the ecological and health impacts of livestock production in the West are associated with the use and abuse of water: the livestock industry alters water quantity and quality and water flow regimes. "

There's more to read in the article...
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 11:03 AM


Dittos Mexitron ... :):)

My aunt and uncle ran cattle in AZ ... was a full time job making sure they had water ... using a "cat" to make "catchment ponds" for ANY rain that fell ... as there really wasn't much water around

Something changed when the Europeans .. replaced the Apache's with a different "land use" approach

One could say, change effected by man ... :biggrin::biggrin:

From an article in the Payson Roundup 9/2014

"By June and July when the tall grasses had died, and before the monsoon arrived, the cowboys followed practices they learned from the Indians, burning the countryside. Rancher Slim Ellison told of watching the Apaches tie a burning tree branch to a horse’s tail and send it across the countryside and through the
forests to light the ground cover. They counted on the July rains to put the fires out, and in the process prepared the ground for fresh new grass. It also kept the forests pruned.

Early military detachments during the Indian War reported a “park like” appearance to the ponderosa forests. The huge trees had open spaces between them where grasses and wildflowers flourished. With the ground fuel consumed annually, lightening caused fires had no opportunity to climb into the crowns of the
trees."

This has only led to the current situation faced by BLM and others in the area ... which isn't really very good, compared to what it was ... before it was changed .. based on the need of very large "returns" financially speaking

After my uncle died (RIP) my aunt (RIP) ran it with my cousins for for the next two decades .. but, they got out of "cattle" in the late 90s ... completely and focused on other business's which they were involved in ..

Must say, as a kid growing up ... it was living in a dream, for me, as that was what these folks were ... Cowboys :):)

Loved their life style and where they lived .. in that period .. late 40s to the late 60s ... when subdivision took off for all those folks down in the "Valley" ... who wanted to get the hell out of the Phoenix heat in the summer ... progress .. OK if you say so :lol::lol:

[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]

[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 02:11 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron  
Here's some info on cattle and water:

http://www.publiclandsranching.org/htmlres/wr_guzzling_water...

"When people think of California and water, they often imagine sprawling cities dotted liberally with swimming pools and watered lawns; legions of vain auto owners washing their SUVs, sports cars, and minivans; and endless acres of verdant golf courses - all sucking down rivers both near and far. This image is partly correct - rivers are going dry. But the major reason is not direct consumption by humans - urbanites running sprinklers on their front yards and the like. In California, the major user of water is agriculture, and within agriculture, the thirstiest commodity is the cow.

Overall, agriculture accounts for 83 percent of all water used in California. It's true that California grows the majority of America's fruits and vegetables, so liberal use of water by its agricultural sector would not be unexpected. However, few people would suspect that growing feed for cattle is the predominant agricultural use of water in California. In 1997, 1.7 million acres of the state were planted to alfalfa alone. Irrigated pasture and hayfields consume more water than any other single crop in California - more than a third of all irrigation water. 1 Together, alfalfa and hay and pasturage account for approximately half of all water used in the state.

The story is similar in other western states. In Colorado, some 25 percent of all water consumed goes to alfalfa crops. 2 In Montana, agriculture takes 97 percent of all water used in the state, and just about the only irrigated crop there is hay and pasture forage; more than 5 million acres in the state are irrigated hay meadows. 3 In Nevada - the most arid state in the country - domestic water use amounted to 9.8 million gallons a day in 1993. By contrast, agriculture used 2.8 billion gallons of water per day. 4 Altogether, agriculture uses 83 percent of Nevada's water 5 - and the major crop is hay for cattle fodder. In Nevada, while cow pastures are flood irrigated, wetlands at wildlife refuges and the state's rivers often go bone-dry. 6

Cows are poorly adapted to arid environments. They are profligate consumers of water. Beef production demands an estimated 3,430 gallons of water just to produce one steak! 7 Most western rangelands simply don't provide enough forage alone - because the climate is too dry - to run livestock economically. Supplemental feed and irrigated pasture are also needed. Many of the ecological and health impacts of livestock production in the West are associated with the use and abuse of water: the livestock industry alters water quantity and quality and water flow regimes. "

There's more to read in the article...


ya,... i know cattle are bad for the environment,...
but i still like beef. meat consumption is an "affluenza"






[Edited on 4-14-2015 by mtgoat666]
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 04:40 PM


"liberal use of water by its agricultural sector would not be unexpected"

Unless things have changed ... it cost the growers ... one way or another and "costs" of any business must be controlled ... if possible

Pumping costs on 1,200 ft well's on the "West Side" of the Central Valley can get a bit steep ... just saying

"Groundwater conditions vary considerably from eastern to western Fresno County. Aquifers east of the valley trough are generally semi-confined to unconfined, while aquifers west of the valley trough are generally semi-confined to confined. Most pumping occurs below a naturally occurring subterranean clay, although considerable pumping also occurs above the layer, depending upon location and water quality issues. This layer is several hundred feet below the ground surface, and pumping costs are high."

http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/4510/4360/General_Plan/GP_Final_...

That's just Fresno County ... others counties have a similar situation in the Southern Central Valley

And they grow quite a bit in that region ... From Wheeler Ridge .. North

And is the reason the Governor of the State of CA and the other guys ... just passed new legislation to reduce the "overdraft" ...



[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 05:49 PM


What might motivate people to continue to drill baby drill and burn baby burn.....could it be that the huge money reserves have a stake in our energy use? I haven't seen so many muscle cars on the road as I did today, cheap OIL and cheap mogas get folks stimulated.....


Quote:

Supply was only half the calculus, though. While the new Saudi stance was being trumpeted as a war on shale, Naimi’s not-so-invisible hand pushing prices lower also addressed an even deeper Saudi fear: flagging long-term demand. Naimi and other Saudi leaders have worried for years that climate change and high crude prices will boost energy efficiency, encourage renewables, and accelerate a switch to alternative fuels such as natural gas, especially in the emerging markets that they count on for growth. They see how demand for the commodity that’s created the kingdom’s enormous wealth—and is still abundant beneath the desert sands—may be nearing its peak. This isn’t something the petroleum minister discusses in depth in public, given global concern about carbon emissions and efforts to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. But Naimi acknowledges the trend. “Demand will peak way ahead of supply,” he told reporters in Qatar three years ago. If growth in oil consumption flattens out too soon, the transition could be wrenching for Saudi Arabia, which gets almost half its gross domestic product from oil exports. Last week, in a speech in Riyadh, Naimi said Saudi Arabia would stand “firmly and resolutely” with others who oppose any attempt to marginalize oil consumption. “There are those who are trying to reach international agreements to limit the use of fossil fuel, and that will damage the interests of oil producers in the long-term,” he said. U.S. State Department cables released by WikiLeaks show that the Saudis’ interest in prolonging the world’s dependence on oil dates back at least a decade. In conversations with colleagues and U.S. diplomats, Naimi responded to the American fixation on “security of supply” with the Saudi need for “security of demand,” according to a 2006 embassy dispatch. “Saudi officials are very concerned that a climate change treaty would significantly reduce their income,” James Smith, the U.S. ambassador to Riyadh, wrote in a 2010 memo to U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu. “Effectively, peak oil arguments have been replaced by peak demand.”



full article here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-12/saudi-arab...




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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 06:00 PM


Quote: Originally posted by wessongroup  
“Whiskey is for drinking—water is for fighting.”

Mark Twain



"I always carry of bottle of whiskey with me in case of snake bite...I also carry a snake" W.C. Fields (or something like that)
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[*] posted on 4-14-2015 at 11:40 PM


Ya mean like this ... :biggrin::biggrin:

"707-horsepower Dodge Challenger SRT Hellcat? Hell yes!"

http://www.cnet.com/products/2015-dodge-challenger-srt-hellc...
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[*] posted on 4-15-2015 at 10:25 AM


Quote: Originally posted by wessongroup  
"liberal use of water by its agricultural sector would not be unexpected"

Unless things have changed ... it cost the growers ... one way or another and "costs" of any business must be controlled ... if possible

Pumping costs on 1,200 ft well's on the "West Side" of the Central Valley can get a bit steep ... just saying

"Groundwater conditions vary considerably from eastern to western Fresno County. Aquifers east of the valley trough are generally semi-confined to unconfined, while aquifers west of the valley trough are generally semi-confined to confined. Most pumping occurs below a naturally occurring subterranean clay, although considerable pumping also occurs above the layer, depending upon location and water quality issues. This layer is several hundred feet below the ground surface, and pumping costs are high."

http://www2.co.fresno.ca.us/4510/4360/General_Plan/GP_Final_...

That's just Fresno County ... others counties have a similar situation in the Southern Central Valley

And they grow quite a bit in that region ... From Wheeler Ridge .. North

And is the reason the Governor of the State of CA and the other guys ... just passed new legislation to reduce the "overdraft" ...



[Edited on 4-14-2015 by wessongroup]


Yeah, water may be just going to go up in price until a new equilibrium between crop type and price settles in. Though I think in the early days water was a negligible cost in the valleys...and many homes out there had no water meters on them. Though rice might be here to stay since now things have worked out with the migratory birds using the fields. Heh, arguably the best crop for the dollar/water would be marijuana. Start cultivating some of that Turlock Gold.
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