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Author: Subject: TS, Hurricane, TS Dora
BajaBlanca
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[*] posted on 7-21-2011 at 10:17 AM


ocean water is still freezing here in la bocana

humid here today (very unusual for us) and light clouds

no sign of rain anywhere :o





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Bob H
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[*] posted on 7-21-2011 at 11:54 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BajaBlanca
ocean water is still freezing here in la bocana

humid here today (very unusual for us) and light clouds

no sign of rain anywhere :o


If Dora hits that cold water, it will fizzle out quickly.




The SAME boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It's about what you are made of NOT the circumstance.
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vandenberg
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[*] posted on 7-21-2011 at 11:58 AM


I believe that as soon as she hits the much colder water of the Baja coast, she will peter out in a hurry.



I think my photographic memory ran out of film


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[*] posted on 7-21-2011 at 12:07 PM


AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK DORA IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO 155 MPH...250 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY TONIGHT...AND A RAPID WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

ep201104_model.gif - 29kB




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Katiejay99
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[*] posted on 7-21-2011 at 05:42 PM


Looks like Dora is trying to peter out....

[/img]
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BajaNews
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[*] posted on 7-21-2011 at 10:55 PM


800 PM PDT

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DORA WOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REACH PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150
MILES...240 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SWELLS WILL
BEGIN AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

ep201104_model.gif - 30kB




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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 06:03 AM


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. DORA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK
DORA IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORA IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DORA COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ep201104_model.gif - 29kB




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tiotomasbcs
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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 06:36 AM


Thanks for the Updates! Dora is coming apart. Looking for her on our horizon but only small waves. Sale Tio
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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 06:37 AM


post some pics later today when they arrive.....



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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 11:52 AM


Just back from San Lucas
Huge waves, lotsa foam, and NO ONE in the water at Old Man nor Zippers
Very partly cloudy skies here, no wind and HOT




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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 12:56 PM


She's coming in slow and very quiet so far...

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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 06:46 PM


I just a got a message from my daughter in Los Barriles, they are having REAL RAIN. This is a rare occurance worth celebrating, and I am sure the desert will.
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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 08:12 PM


AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

ep201104_model.gif - 27kB




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[*] posted on 7-22-2011 at 09:50 PM


Looks like it is going to peter out before it does much good for us on the drought situation. I hope we get an 1-2" but not too optimistic. Went swimming today and the water was "cold" It may portend things to come in September, however..
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[*] posted on 7-23-2011 at 05:55 AM


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.5 WEST. DORA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...DORA WOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND DORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY
OR EARLY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY DORA WILL AFFECT THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.

ep201104_model.gif - 32kB




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bajajudy
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[*] posted on 7-23-2011 at 06:31 AM


Nothing happening here
Partly cloudy and calm




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[*] posted on 7-23-2011 at 06:38 AM


Calm & quiet w/ beautiful sunrise. Ocean is smooth w/small waves. Large, cumulus clouds marching by out to the south but no winds. Think the cooler water knocked Dora out. Great water temps in mid 70s! Dodged a bullet, no?!:cool: Tio
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[*] posted on 7-23-2011 at 08:39 AM


Glad to hear it Tomas!



No worries
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[*] posted on 7-23-2011 at 02:59 PM


Wow, what a disappointment. Hot, dry, south winds blowing all day and not a drop of rain from Dora. The puffy clouds were cool, however
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[*] posted on 7-23-2011 at 04:50 PM


Wind, wind and more wind. Not bad, just windy here in Todos Santos. No rain. bleh.
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