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Author: Subject: Tropical Storm Lorena; LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER STORM IS FORMING DOWN SOUTH
monoloco
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[*] posted on 9-4-2013 at 06:46 AM


Here's the latest:http://www.eebmike.com/
It looks like we could get smacked again.




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[*] posted on 9-4-2013 at 07:08 AM


Winds and rain started around 2 am. My neighbors 26' boat came ashore, winds were really strong.
Looks like there's more rain coming
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[*] posted on 9-4-2013 at 07:53 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by Bill Collector
Winds and rain started around 2 am. My neighbors 26' boat came ashore, winds were really strong.
Looks like there's more rain coming



Probably so:

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/
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[*] posted on 9-4-2013 at 08:14 AM
Boots on the ground


I think that Tom at BajaInsider does a terrific job of forecasting and warning

check it out
be sure to check out all the tabs

http://www.bajainsider.com/weather/baja-weather108d.htm#.Uid...



[Edited on 9-4-2013 by bajajudy]




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[*] posted on 9-4-2013 at 07:40 PM


yeah....yeah...this just isn't making feel too comfy....it's not even formed and it looks formed...or big...or imposing..or whatever term you want to use to descibe looming...or big..or imposing..oh...sorry..we hate storms here.



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[*] posted on 9-4-2013 at 10:59 PM


Batten down the hatches, looks like we could get spanked by Friday:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE
LOW MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND
INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY.




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 02:49 AM


Went red..........



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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 04:59 AM


we just dried up too...

it's going to be a really green desert for a few months

newstorm.jpg - 17kB




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 07:21 AM


....looks like a bit of rain on the inside which would be awful for Loreto area



[Edited on 9-5-2013 by shari]




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 07:33 AM


This doesnt look like it will get very organized to me. It will be lucky to reach TS status. But that doesnt mean it wont dump a bunch of rain...........somewhere.

Probably not Montana, though.:lol:

Ah, the first week in September. Seems like most of the bad storms affecting Baja and Sonora come this week.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Hook]




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 07:37 AM


I wouldn't be taking this lightly quite yet:

http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/
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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 07:56 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by Hook
This doesnt look like it will get very organized to me. It will be lucky to reach TS status. But that doesnt mean it wont dump a bunch of rain...........somewhere.

Probably not Montana, though.:lol:

Ah, the first week in September. Seems like most of the bad storms affecting Baja and Sonora come this week.

[Edited on 9-5-2013 by Hook]



Funny you should mention rain in Montana, as we are having some incredible thunder and lightning and pouring rain right now in Kalispell.

The storm that is forming now looks pretty serious. Lets hope it turns west and out to sea, because we sure don't need so much rain in Baja right now.
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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 10:38 AM


we're south and east of missoula right now and it thundered and lightninged and rained last nite...HOWEVER hooked probably 15 cutts in a 100 yd stretch of rock creek his morning..so screw the rain.



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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 12:36 PM
Lorena-Tropical Storm Watch issued for BCS!


A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca on the Pacific side to Buenavista on the Sea of Cortez. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible, generally in the next 48hrs.

The system in question is Tropical Depression 12E
, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Lorena later today. At 12PM the system is about 355 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas and is forecast to move to the northwest over the next 72hrs. Then Tropical Storm Lorena will pass just to the southweast of the tip of the Baja peninsula through the weekend and into the first of the week.

Tropical Depression 12E, is not expected at this time to develop into a hurricane, but since this is the peak of the Baja Hurricane Season we suggest you keep a close eye on our weather pages as this system develops. At this time the forecasts indicate that just the tip of the peninsula will see any significant effects from the passing of then Tropical Storm Lorena, but fall storms can have a tenancy to curve to the northeast when nearing Baja.

Copied and pasted from an email notification from BajaInsider



[Edited on 9-5-2013 by bajajudy]




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 01:07 PM


Tropical Storm Watch issued for the southern most portions of Baja California Sur.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been posted for Baja California Sur from Agua Blanca on the Pacific side to Buenavista on the Sea of Cortez. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible, generally in the next 48hrs.




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 02:12 PM


Thanks for posting that- we are in Buena Vista
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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 02:24 PM


I guess that means Los Barriles is in the clear?



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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 02:46 PM


AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.6 WEST. LORENA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...LORENA WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/052045....




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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 02:57 PM


Buena Vista/Los Barriles. Don't think we are in the clear. Have had thunder for about a 1/2 hr, getting darker towards the South heading our way
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[*] posted on 9-5-2013 at 03:21 PM


Totally agree with you about BajaInsider - here's another cut and paste from about an hour ago from that website.


Thursday, September 5, 2013 3:35 PM MDTTropical Storm Lorena has evolved from Tropical Depression 12E and the path now indicates a Baja California Sur landfall late Friday or early Saturday near Cabo San Lucas. Tropical Storm Lorena is currently about 335 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas.
Tropical Storm Lorena is located near 19.2N 106.6W and is moving 325° at 10kts. Central barometric pressure is estimate at 1003Mb and winds are 35kts with gusts to 45kts, making Lorena just barely a tropical storm. Tropical storm force winds extend out 60 miles, only in the northeast quadrant. This remains a small disorganized system, but there is still plenty of warm, open water between Baja and Lorena.
Forecasts call for Lorena to continue to strengthen slightly through late Friday and begin to diminish over the cooler waters of the Pacific beginning Saturday. This is just about the point in time forecasters believe Lorena will make landfall somewhere on the tip of the peninsula.
Tropical Storm watches currently in effect for the southern most portions of the peninsula may be converted to warnings later this evening and the watch area is likely to be expanded.
Should the forecasts hold, much of the southern portion of Baja California Sur could see close to tropical storm force conditions between late Friday and into Sunday.
Folks within the current watch areas should begin preparations for tropical storm force condition during daylight hours today, as the weather may deteriorate rapidly tomorrow morning.
As can be seen in the flared cloud tops on the Visible Light Satellite image right, upper wind currents are still inhibiting the development of Lorena. The system will continue to track over waters capable of supporting further development through late Friday. Disturbed upper level flows around the Baja peninsula will suppress development as the storm nears the peninsula late Friday.
Should either or both of these deterrents abate before the storm reaches Baja additional development could occur. Systems like this year's Tropical Storm Juliette or 1989's Category 3 Kiko intensified very quickly over the same waters in less than 36hrs. Those with interests in the path of the storm should follow its development closely.
For visitors to the region and their friends back home, this is no reason for panic. Much of Baja California Sur's annual rainfall comes from our tropical systems. This is forecast to make landfall as a tropical storm. Our local systems and facilities are designed to handle much more, although not always gracefully.
Find a safe and comfortable place to witness one of our summer wonders. If you refrain from doing something stupid it can be an impressive weather experience. Life in Baja Sur usually returns to near normal within a day or so of a tropical storm.
The ports of Los Cabo and La Paz are likely to close in advance of the system for safety reasons, which will affect tours and fishing trips – it is not the tour operator's fault.
This is the height of the Baja Hurricane Season. Those with interests in the southern portions of Baja California Sur should follow the development of this system closely.
The next update to this page will be posted following the 06PM release from the National Hurricane Center
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