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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Just upgraded to UGLY status...all warnings changed....
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64746
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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[Edited on 9-6-2016 by David K]
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Norton now a full-on class one with a walk right up the peninsula. East side should get the worst of it, wind and rain, but the whole of Baja Sur
will be affected. Buena Suerte to all and stay safe.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2016/...
[Edited on 9-5-2016 by bajabuddha]
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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My barometer has dropped a little since this morning. I really thought the forecast would have shown Newton moving more westerly and diminishing in
strength. I don't like the most recent updates!
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13045
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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oh geeze....looks like it might be a long night for you on the southern tip...get ready....bring in the laundry and deck chairs! get the candles out.
best of luck to you all down there...hang onto your hat Tio!
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StuckSucks
Super Nomad
Posts: 2318
Registered: 10-17-2013
Member Is Offline
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HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152016
300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016
Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen.
A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more
symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds
of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this
time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton
is in an environment of light shear and very warm water. The
official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus
in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility.
Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since
landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points.
Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction
with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given
the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong
tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora.
Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14. Newton
should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48
hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the
southern United States. The biggest change in the latest model
cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of
the previous guidance. This makes sense because, with a stronger
Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would
steer the deeper storm in that direction. The new NHC track
prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period.
Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and
northwestern Mexico. In addition, moisture associated with the
remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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StuckSucks
Super Nomad
Posts: 2318
Registered: 10-17-2013
Member Is Offline
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64746
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Offline
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Midnight-2 am at your place tomorrow night, Russ!
EDIT: Today's track shows it sooner, like 8 pm.
[Edited on 9-6-2016 by David K]
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Baja New Mexico is ready!!!! (sorta)
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7084
Registered: 8-5-2011
Member Is Offline
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cabo webcam
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-cabo-san-lucas.html
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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6pm update from NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Newton was located
near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 108.6 West. Newton is moving
toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A turn toward the
north-northwest, and then to the north, is expected late Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, Newton should be near or over the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula early Tuesday morning,
move over portions of the southern Baja California peninsula late
Tuesday, and move into northwestern Mexico on early Wednesday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph
(140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected before landfall.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).
Here's the whole report: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/050252....
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7084
Registered: 8-5-2011
Member Is Offline
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Good luck Russ. Batten down the hatches.
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rogbag
Nomad
Posts: 124
Registered: 8-27-2008
Location: Los Barriles, BCS
Member Is Offline
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So far we have had some light sprinkles and a nice little breeze. Think it is going to pick up the pace in a bit. I'm one row off of the Sea of
Cortez - hope that is far enough for my palapa to be here in the morning. Still have electricity and internet - hope that stays on. Will wait to
see what happens, and maybe have another glass of vino tinto.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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thanks for the report. hope things hold together for you.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13045
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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we look forward to hearing onsite reports for as long as your internet holds out amigos...be safe....watch out for flying palapas!
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imlost
Nomad
Posts: 218
Registered: 3-31-2015
Location: PNW & East Cape
Member Is Offline
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Buena Vista webcams (just south of Los Barriles):
Webcams
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Hang on all....Be safe!!!!!
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rogbag
Nomad
Posts: 124
Registered: 8-27-2008
Location: Los Barriles, BCS
Member Is Offline
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It is now almost 9:30 PM and no wind, a light sprinkle and some fun coming up. I think I will go to bed and sleep thru the excitement, like I did
with Odile a few years back. Well, we did wake up about 1:30 AM to the sound of a freight train passing by. Hope we don't have one of those later
on tonite. I am sure it will keep me advised.
Russ, I think it is headed your way next, so good luck to you also.
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JC43
Nomad
Posts: 498
Registered: 6-21-2014
Member Is Offline
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10 p.m. Heavy rain in CSL. Downtown , it`s a mess , all streets covered with mud and gravel. I`m staying home but can watch the downtown area pretty
good w/ binoculars. No humans anywhere.
This is no good for Baja. Not for Cabo. Not for Loreto. Poor Mulege, you will suffer a long time b/c of this hurricane. Baja economy needs no
hurricane at all !!!
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Gulliver
Senior Nomad
Posts: 651
Registered: 11-18-2013
Member Is Offline
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We have a house down in Floodlandia along the Mulege estuary. This can actually help the economy there as we foolish gringos spend quite a bit having
flood damage repaired. Things have been awfully quite for a couple of years.
We strip the house to the rafters when we leave for the Summer but our front yard takes a beating. Hard to invest in nice plants when they will end up
on the beach at Chivato.
For Mulege this is storm number six in fourteen years. Ah, well.
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