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willyAirstream
Super Nomad
Posts: 1786
Registered: 1-1-2010
Member Is Offline
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Thanks for sharing your story! Glad you all survived.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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all of these stories of neighbours helping each other are heart warming. I knew that this disaster would bring people together and forge new
relationships...the hurricane does have a silver lining. It also served to remind us not to slack off on preparedness...something all of us who live
in BCS should do in September...every year...as well as be mindful of construction.
Monoloco...lost a small bathroom window? hmmm...we never board those up so good to know...we always flood our boats with water with an impending storm
so they dont flip over....just a useful tip.
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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I'm glad to hear that you and your loved ones are safe, sound and together, and that your books survived unscathed. Thanks for the great note.
[Edited on 9-23-2014 by Zola]
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
all of these stories of neighbours helping each other are heart warming. I knew that this disaster would bring people together and forge new
relationships...the hurricane does have a silver lining. It also served to remind us not to slack off on preparedness...something all of us who live
in BCS should do in September...every year...as well as be mindful of construction.
Monoloco...lost a small bathroom window? hmmm...we never board those up so good to know...we always flood our boats with water with an impending storm
so they dont flip over....just a useful tip. |
The only reason we lost that one window is because it was
broken and I was unable to latch it. What's truly amazing is that we have two 10' sliders that were facing almost directly into the wind and they
escaped unscathed. The cleanup around here is proceeding at a remarkable pace and there are a lot of community efforts to get people's roofs back on,
and the infrastructure repaired. It was good to see the farmer below me plowing his field and getting it ready to plant. Everyone that I talk to is
impressed with the Mexican government's response to the disaster and the speed with which it was deployed. Everywhere we go we see CFE personal
working on getting the power lines repaired and Todos Santos currently has provisional power to some parts of the town. I just hope we don't have any
more storms this year.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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lizard lips
Super Nomad
Posts: 1468
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: EARTH
Member Is Offline
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Below is an email I received from Kim, Gary Pattons ex-wife.
Dear Nomads,
I understand Blanca and maybe others of you had your internet connection knocked out, but if that is the worst then you will be ok? Other things
can work themselves out, I am hoping.
I am praying you are all surviving hurricane Odile, and I am so sorry you've had to succumb to its wrath. It is one horrible event of nature that
most of us never want to experience, positively terrifying. My prayers to all and please if you can reach out on Gary's site, do so. regards to
all... k
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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| Quote: | | I just hope we don't have any more storms this year. |
oh hell no.....
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64849
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
Member Is Online
Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Everybody (everything) wants to go to Bahia Asuncion, Shari!
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Been watching that...quite a big change since yesterday...
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Yogi was right
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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Maybe it's just not in the cards for us to travel down until the end of hurricane season. We were going to go to San Juanico right before Norbert
came. But we held off. Then Odile entered the picture, and we have since held off. I was planning to leave this weekend to travel by the south road,
but now it appears that the models for once are in agreement that a new tropical system will come ashore close to San Juanico. This has just been a
relentless procession of cyclones threatening or making landfall.
Does anyone know how accurate are these long-term models? Right now the NHS says that the system is a tropical depression that has a 90% of becoming a
tropical storm within the next five days. How strong will this system be by the time it makes landfall?
When will this stop???
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Zola
Does anyone know how accurate are these long-term models? Right now the NHS says that the system is a tropical depression that has a 90% of becoming a
tropical storm within the next five days. How strong will this system be by the time it makes landfall?
When will this stop??? |
Whenever the gods decide.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Zola, making travel plans to Baja Sur in September on any given year is a risk as there are always hurricane threats and storms to contend with....and
I just dont see it getting any better. This year we had an abnormal amount of storms because of the El Nino phenomenon as was expected as
predicted...it aint over yet either.
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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What Shari said...
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18377
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
| Quote: | Originally posted by Zola
Does anyone know how accurate are these long-term models? Right now the NHS says that the system is a tropical depression that has a 90% of becoming a
tropical storm within the next five days. How strong will this system be by the time it makes landfall?
When will this stop??? |
Whenever the gods decide. |
The written forecast is pretty reliable 48 hours out. The forecast is worthless beyond 120 hours. The NWS does not even post projected tracks beyond
120 hours in their public forecasts. I see nomads like to post the raw model data tracks without corresponding interpretation, that go past 120 hours,
but you should remember that is garbage data... The interpretation usually tells you which model tracks are reliable, which are not.
When will what stop? Global warming is projected to result in more severe weather extremes, and warming surface waters leads to more severe storms...
Perhaps we should try to curb our green house gas emissions, eh?
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Sweetwater
Senior Nomad
Posts: 915
Registered: 11-26-2010
Member Is Offline
Mood: chilly today hot tomale
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| Quote: | Originally posted by mtgoat666
| Quote: | Originally posted by vandenberg
| Quote: | Originally posted by Zola
Does anyone know how accurate are these long-term models? Right now the NHS says that the system is a tropical depression that has a 90% of becoming a
tropical storm within the next five days. How strong will this system be by the time it makes landfall?
When will this stop??? |
Whenever the gods decide. |
The written forecast is pretty reliable 48 hours out. The forecast is worthless beyond 120 hours. The NWS does not even post projected tracks beyond
120 hours in their public forecasts. I see nomads like to post the raw model data tracks without corresponding interpretation, that go past 120 hours,
but you should remember that is garbage data... The interpretation usually tells you which model tracks are reliable, which are not.
When will what stop? Global warming is projected to result in more severe weather extremes, and warming surface waters leads to more severe storms...
Perhaps we should try to curb our green house gas emissions, eh? |
If I understood the NPR broadcast yesterday, it really doesn't matter what "we" do at this stage of the climate change that's occurring. The developed
countries are not increasing their carbon energy consumption and are projected to decrease it consistently in the future. This is all more than offset
by developing economies and countries that are motivated to bring their standard of living up the ladder and closer to ours. China is the largest coal
consumer but there are other countries that are on the same curve. The predictions that storms would become more frequent and severe are materializing
but the counter arguments that it's "normal variation" and that poverty stricken populations still need access to cheap energy production will
continue to dominate many political agendas. There are certainly spots on the globe that are demonstrating their susceptibility to climate change,
Baja seems to be one of them. As history marches forward, the judgement really doesn't belong to us, we're just like the bacteria that will overgrow
their beaker until all the agar is depleted......so, if the gods decide, we'll be the last to know.....and yes, 1 degree Centigrade in 1 centimeter
over thousands of kilometers of water turns out to be a huge amount of energy waiting and looking to be released......BWTFDIK......
Everbody\'s preachin\' at me that we all wanna git to heaven, trouble is, nobody wants to die to git there.-BB King
Reality is what does not go away when you stop believing in it. -Philip K Dick
Nothing is worse than active ignorance. Johann Wolfgang von Goethe(1749-1832, German writer, artist and politician)
When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I\'ve never tried before. - Mae West
Experience is what keeps a man who makes the same mistake twice from admitting it the third time around.
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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I fully agree that we humans should try to reverse the trends that contribute to global warming, and for starters we could avoid involving ourselves
in futile, ruinous sectarian warfare overseas,  , but I will not further
comment on political matters lest I overstay my welcome. 
Let's hope that this works out well for everyone, most of all the people of BCS.
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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It's also been affecting California, where we have experienced an unprecedented draught, the worst in the last 500 years in this part of the world,
according to experts.
My understanding is that reversing these trends is similar to reversing the gap in the ozone layer: It is not only possible, but will not even cost
very much. Certain industries will be destroyed by the necessary change -- mostly notably coal and certain kinds of fossil fuels. But other industries
and lines of commerce will flourish. If we don't adapt, we might wind up like bacteria that has eaten through its resources. But we are supposedly
smarter than bacteria and should make an effort to change our behavior in order to induce the change that experts say is easily feasible.
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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BCSTech
Senior Nomad
Posts: 584
Registered: 4-16-2006
Location: Todos Santos, BCS / Placerville, CA.
Member Is Offline
Mood: Carpe Manana
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Control Greenhouse Gas Emissions = Bad for some businesses in the short-run
Global Warming = Bad for everything on the planet in the long run.
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Jaybo
Nomad
Posts: 240
Registered: 12-7-2009
Location: NW Oregon
Member Is Offline
Mood: Praying for Baja!
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30 years ago was the coming ice age.... Just sayin'
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MitchMan
Super Nomad
Posts: 1856
Registered: 3-9-2009
Member Is Offline
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Weather and economics are very similar in the general manner of a delay between the cause and effect from a big picture over time perspective.
Because there is a delay. The general population is slow to observe and even believe and/or heed this reality. Too many people do not (and even
refuse to) believe that what is happening today really is a result of what went on long ago. And, what we do today will impact us all in the future.
Also, many people are incapable of taking a big picture perspective; they refuse to see the big picture historical and present facts even when
observing the actual factual data that is presented point blank.
It appears that we the people of this country and of this world will only take the appropriate group action when we the people tangibly feel the pain
and experience the damage as it happens.
If remains to be seen if this country and others will do enough of what is necessary soon enough to address the problems successfully. I personally
doubt it. Sure, we all will react and start changing our ways (some ways only, and incrementally only), but I believe that time will be when we are
already feeling the pain from the damage (that most certainly could have been avoided).
There are plenty of examples of societies and the human race in general causing permanent damage, financial/economic calamities, and plant and animal
extinctions all over the world. Does anyone here see a stop to that today? I don't.
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