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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
1100 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST OR OVER THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST
OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Almost 4.5 hours and no word from Mulege or SLC or Chivato. The suspense is maddening.
REALLY COMING DOWN OVER HERE AGAIN. I BET IT'S AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR.
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bajasuenos
Newbie
Posts: 6
Registered: 9-6-2006
Location: Petaluma CA/Punta Chivato
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Mood: longing always to be floating in Bahia de Concepcion
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Jimena report in Punta Chivat area?
any word on beach survival.homes near /on Shell Beach??? we got land there tho no casa as of yet???
susan & Jim + critters
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
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Mood: Skeptical
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I am not there. In a way, I would almost rather be there. Not knowing what is going on is torture, but I'm sure that is not as bad as the terror
people there must be experiencing.
This thing has been hanging right on top of Mulege, the Bahia de Conception and Pto. Chivato all afternoon and evening. Given the projected models, it
looks to circle around and double back...over a several day period. CFE is very good about restoring power quickly, but how can they if the damned
thing won't leave?
I don't see how we are going to get any news unless the military can release news. If they can get in, someone there will know how to use their
resources to get word to someone, who in turn may report here on this forum. Helicopters and boats won't be able to get in. Who knows if they can get
in by the highway.
The river is so shallow...filled in with silt from the last two hurricanes. No dredging has taken place except for back hoes scooping from the near
banks, and that was used to build up the river banks. It cannot possibly keep from overflowing. A surge will come up river from the SOC, and down
river from mountain runoff. In addition, they are getting pounded by wind...and consequently flying debris.
By the way, the company who insured me last year, GNP, never paid me and they have stopped communicating. That check could have really helped for this
clean up. Because they hadn't paid, I didn't renew for this year. Yes, they did take peoples' money for this year. Why not, if they have no intention
of paying? Good way to make a lot of money, don't ya think? Oh well.
I hope that at least, everyone who is there is safe. Mulegenos are good people. We can help them again. Someone in the U.S. can set up a paypal fund
through their business like Sharks, and also Cabo Magic did after Hurricane John. When that happens, I am in for $100.00. I hope many concerned Nomads
will match it. When the weather finally clears, people can start bringing needed things too.
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
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Jim won't move along!
Pacific IR Loop shows the bastard just sitting there spinning.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpir.html
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Agree completely, Mexray. There is little chance of this thing turning west, IMO. It will break up in the mountains of Sonora and further north into
AZ.
Here in San Carlos, we are now on the leading edge of the strongest portion of what's left of Jimena. It's dumping!!!
I cant imagine what Mulege has gone through.
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bajasuenos
Newbie
Posts: 6
Registered: 9-6-2006
Location: Petaluma CA/Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
Mood: longing always to be floating in Bahia de Concepcion
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Mulege/Punta Chivato
Damn! i didn't know it was hanging there.........that's f'd up. that's the worstest. Mulege always takes the brunt from the mountain run off and that
dang river. Beautiful yet deadly . S&*T! I kow that Ed Epifani is stuck out at Chivato in Costa Cardonal all by his lonesome battening down the
hatches of the homes built there. Full report from Ruth Bennett who talked to Ed earlier today. He has provisions for a couple days i think since he
will be stuckcuz that road from Hwy 1 Palos Verde always gets rutted up. Wish I was there.sure we will be sending cash too.once a fund gets set up.
Damn i say again!
susan & Jim + critters
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
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Location: Sonora
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I think this is a little more up-to-date and detailed. Be sure and animate the image. Updating about every half hour.
The beast is finally letting go of Baja.
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
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Thanks Hook that does show it's heading off in EXACTLY the opposite direction than projected but hey, it might just make a drunken U-turn. 
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Mood: Inquisitive
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Yeah, it could.
If it does, it'll probably run smack into BOLA. Probably not much wind but plenty of rain.
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Mexray
Super Nomad
Posts: 1016
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: California Delta
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Mood: Baja Time
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Another couple of hours...
...and it's still headed in a NE direction - looks like it's headed right for San Carlos area on mainland - almost the entire northern part of Mexico
is covered with storm moisture clouds...looks like some of that rain will reach north of the border...
check out the GEOS - WEST image on this site for the best, close up, up to date images - click on the small white box, labeled 'Vis IR floater'
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
That part of the Mar de Cortez is quite warm, and this system could gain some strength before it makes the mainland - batten down the palapa roofs
over there amigos....
[Edited on 9-3-2009 by Mexray]
According to my clock...anytime is \'BAJA TIME\' & as Jimmy Buffett says,
\"It doesn\'t use numbers or moving hands It always just says now...\"
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Mexray
Super Nomad
Posts: 1016
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: California Delta
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BOLA looks to be...
...right on the 'fringe' as the 'eye' heads NE - still windy and wet, but not a big hit, as it looks from the sat images...I'll bet the water clarity
has gone to hell for a week or so...
According to my clock...anytime is \'BAJA TIME\' & as Jimmy Buffett says,
\"It doesn\'t use numbers or moving hands It always just says now...\"
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Uh, yeah, being in San CArlos right now, I can tell you it is definitely here. We're getting gusts to probably 60 and the rain just wont let up. It's
gonna be a long night.
The BOLA prediction is if it somehow made the turn back west. It seems like it would have to cross back onto the peninsula right there.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
Registered: 12-11-2005
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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO CALAMAJUE...AND NORTHWARD ON THE COAST OF
NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO TO PUERTO LIBERTAD.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTH OF LORETO TO CALAMAJUE ON THE EAST
COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO FROM HUATABAMPITO NORTHWARD TO PUERTO LIBERTAD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO.
JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JIMENA
WILL BE NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TODAY...THEN MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND JIMENA COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
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BajaNews
Super Moderator
Posts: 1439
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TROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009
200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009
ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
OVER LAND...THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL FROM A TIMELY 0516 UTC TRMM OVERPASS
SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS
LOCATED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. ALL THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. A 0415
UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE COULD BE WINDS TO 50 KT
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE SCATTEROMETER DOES NOT PROVIDE DATA.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50 KT. INTERACTION
WITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
JIMENA FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY
MOVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
DURING THE DAY...RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY.
CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF JIMENA IS MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/6. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CESSATION OF THIS NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY
WITH JIMENA PREDICTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND MOVE BACK INLAND
OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REMNANT LOW OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED BY 96 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN
MAINLAND MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 27.7N 112.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 28.2N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 113.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 04/1800Z 27.8N 113.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
48HR VT 05/0600Z 27.3N 114.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
72HR VT 06/0600Z 27.0N 115.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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submarine_dbk
Junior Nomad
Posts: 66
Registered: 9-5-2006
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Last email received from Punta Chivato neighbor last night at midnight EST.
Extremely violent weather conditions. Wind changing direction, things really F'd up. Buckets of water coming in an extremely well buttoned up house.
Reports that some neighbors lost their roof and sleeping in their car - too dangerous for anyone to get out and help.
Daylight looks like it will be accompanied by much sorrow.
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Back up after two hours w/o power over here in San Carlos, Sonora.
Frequent periods of COMPLETELY HORIZONTAL RAIN that had to be falling at INCHES per hour. I saw accumulated rain on the ground being lifted skyward by
constantly veering winds of somewhere near hurricane strength.
This is not a lot of fun in a 35 foot trailer.
A descent in to a maelstrom comes to mind.............I fear that this ugly thing might be spawning short-lived tornados. It's the only thing that can
explain wind directions that shift within minutes by 180 degrees and back again.
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oldlady
Banned
Posts: 1714
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Glad to see you hanging in there, Hook! Way too quiet from the other side.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
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Location: Punta Chivato
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I just got up after the worst storm I've been thru. Including two seasons in Nam.
Things are bad here and as far as I know no one in Chivato was injured. I pray that is true for the rest of the path of destruction Jimena left
behind. We have a lot of damaged homes here and will try to post as fast as I can see and figure out what's happened.We still have 25 t0 40 mph winds.
Again no one injured that I know of.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
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we're still here and dry
fell asleep around 9pm
too tired
hang in there hook
its still dark
the wind is comming tfrom the southwest
so the hurricane moved notrh
only sprinkles now but gusty wind
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