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micah202
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Mulegena
Yes, it's September and down here ya' gotta be ready.
We put another coat of impermeabilizante on the roof today as extra precaution. |
....noice!...would it also be a worthy addition to margaritas? 
...quite a surprising fizzle in the projections,,,,a reminder of just how much of a guessing game that 'forecasting' is---could go either way,,,,,but
those B'tards are sensitive vulnerable to various influences 
[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP15/refresh/EP1514_PROB50_F120_sm2+gif/115638.gif[/img]
....Laundry should be good-to-go through the weekend,,,with a Hurricane travelling off the coast next week,substantial surf--up to 8meters! up the
BajaSur,another TS in the works for late next week.
...precipitation is looking 'spotty'--for the mostpart--precip is looking that it'll be in the 'welcome' range
[Edited on 9-12-2014 by micah202]
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StuckSucks
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bajabuddha
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Oh-fishul, CAT 1 status this morning with CAT 2 potential for Sunday/Monday. Should reach South Cape by Monday, and looks to be a carbon copy of the
last two; but you know how FICKLE females can be! Gitcher laundry done. One computer model shows a possible hook inland over San Ignacio area, which
will threaten Mulege with big rains. 3 others say 'up the coast and dissipate'.
Stay safe, y'all.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/H...
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/eastern-pacific/2014/H...
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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chuckie
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I have noticed that so far, none of the forecasts have made mention of severe rains or potential flooding? 30 degrees here in the high country, headed
for 75.....peeling apples, off a tree, a real tree...for apple crisps ...
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bajajudy
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When I go to the Weather Channel and look at the forecast for San Jose, it is calling for 90% chance of rain Monday, 80% Tuesday. It sure looks like
a big storm. I am sure we will get rain and some wind here.
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micah202
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.
....here's the rain chart...showing the only moment that any more than 5mm/3hrs is predicted.,but otherwise it's 'spotty'.
....wind-wise,,the most that passage weather shows is ~30 to 35 knot winds hitting Cabo late sunday,,early monday,,with up to 8meter waves,,,,but just
3-4m by Asuncion.
....all said,,it's still a lot of intensity not far offshore,,one bit of high pressure eases** and things could change dramatically!
....**....keep spinning!
[Edited on 9-13-2014 by micah202]
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bajajudy
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Tropical storm winds 205 miles from center...that is a BIG storm
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bajajudy
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3:00update
We are now in the tropical storm WARNING.
La Paz to Santa Fe.
And a HURRICANE WATCH
I am starting to get nervous.
Clear and sunny here now. Calm.
[Edited on 9-13-2014 by bajajudy]
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bajajudy
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Hurricane Watch for BCS
Need I say more.
I know this will be incorporated into the other thread
Yo Buddha, can you change your title so we can get the word out
Hold on!
[Edited on 9-13-2014 by bajajudy]
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Katiejay99
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Hey Bajajudy, I'm getting pretty nervous over here in Todos Santos, too. It's a gorgeous day today here. Not too hot and very little wind.
Stay safe.
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bajabuddha
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Latest news update an hour ago says she'll chug along the coast like the other two did, and then spin westward out to sea, and will gain a little more
strength from assimilating the other smaller storm today, going to CAT 2... so they say... i'd expect the same kind of shore/wave damage and
flooding, maybe even a little more so with the breakwater damage already done. Be safe. I'm kind of amazed at people 'getting soaked by big waves'
standing on the shore to view the spectacle; one rogue wave is all it'll take... time to bring in the warshing.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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pauldavidmena
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Here's hoping Odile doesn't turn into an Ordeal for BSC.
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bajabuddha
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Change it to what??
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
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Hurricane watch issued for BCS
| Quote: | Originally posted by bajabuddha
Change it to what?? |
Hurricane watch issued for BCS
[Edited on 9-13-2014 by bajajudy]
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chippy
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We are getting some wind, rain and a swell increase right now at 19.2 and 104.6
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bajajudy
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More info at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/132045....
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chippy
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They also changed the rainfall amount
[Edited on 9-13-2014 by chippy]
[Edited on 9-13-2014 by chippy]
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pauldavidmena
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@micah202 - where did you get that rain chart? that's a nice, graphical way to represent some very specific data.
WeatherUnderground shows Odile becoming Category 3 by 2PM on Sunday. Cuídate, amigos.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 132045
TCDEP5
HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014
Odile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible
satellite pictures showing an intermittent eye. The latest
intensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as
the initial wind speed. With the hurricane moving over very warm
waters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid
intensification seems likely. Despite the seemingly favorable
environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance
brings Odile to a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS rapid
intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30
kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. After
considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest
NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the
first 24 hours, and could still be too low. After that time, Odile
is forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to
pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected
after that time. The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the
previous one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC
prediction and the intensity consensus.
After moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be
moving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt. The hurricane
should accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge
strengthening over the southern United States. Guidance has shifted
toward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally
less ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico. The new forecast
is adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the
previous forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California
Sur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and
the ECMWF model. The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward
closer to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for
portions of Baja California Sur. A hurricane warning could be
issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends
in the model guidance continue.
Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific
ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward
across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next
week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening
flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake
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bajajudy
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I particularly don't like this:
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for
portions of Baja California Sur. A hurricane warning could be
issued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends
in the model guidance continue.
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