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Author: Subject: Megadrought Predictions
wessongroup
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 04:30 PM


Most definitely .. hard to swallow, without water to wash it down .. beer and/or wine can work for a while, but, long term not a good idea :biggrin::biggrin:
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 04:36 PM


Snowfall in the Sierras Central Ca. is currently 20/25 percent of
average. DK is a wealth of knowledge when one wants
Info on camping on the sand tidal isle in front of Percebu,
why anyone would want to align oneself with any of his opinions
escapes me, unless one wants to be on his happy birthday
list he has for his followers










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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 04:50 PM
snow pack numbers !!


I firmly belive and know from two ex's..one above paradise ca and the other north of reno, and some friends and fishing post's..thats its easy to crunch numbers in regard to snow pack !! there really isn't any and the sun is out!! even the ski resorts with snow machines are closed.....Im always in Baja for winter and watch the waetrher in cali like a hawk...If it concerns my Finned Friends I'm all over it and it's not good..the rain season ends at the end of march...the 20/25 percent of norm was back 2 months ago when they do the pipe in the snow and weigh it thing.....warm rain and sun have removed much of the "pack" and I use the term loosly:wow:

[Edited on 2-16-2015 by captkw]
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Barry A.
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:01 PM


Quote: Originally posted by motoged  
Quote: Originally posted by Barry A.  

....I value the opinions of almost all NOMADS, even if I don't agree, but I hopefully draw the line at personal derogatory comments and attacks on one's character that attempt to marginalize and intimidate those you don't agree with (I can't think of any other reason for doing it)----- THAT strikes me as childish, and gets us no-where, if you know what I mean, and is REALLY IRRITATING.
Barry



Barry,
I think I tend to take DK to task when he does that name-calling stuff you point out directed at folks of a different political/ ideological persuasion.....so I suppose we are both guilty of such childish behaviour.

I certainly am not trying to intimidate anyone....rather, just throwing back in kind a style of presenting ideas.

I know I can irritate some folks, and try to keep that to a minimum....unless my intention is to irritate.

I hold some conservative values myself, but try to blend them with some humanistic principles and willingness to sometimes care for those less fortunate. Being imperfect, it's a work in progress.

Good for you for defending DK as well as your own views....nothing wrong or irritating about that.





Ged------I appreciate your response, and comments, always. I wondered if I am behaving in ways that I have criticized----and frankly don't know-----I hope not.

I see David's responses somewhat differently than you (duh, I am biased)---------to me he does not really attack, simply defends his position using his standards, but also shows his despair for the more progressive points of view often expressed on this Board by giving his own rebuttals sometimes with sarcasm. I can't think of any cases where he used "name-calling", but maybe?

To me that is the difference-----------David defends with his opinion whereas the left attacks him for expressing or even having that opinion. It is hard for me to understand that, given his profuse contributions to this Board. The zany assumptions that people constantly attribute to him, and others, mostly in error, just are not defensible, IMO. We do have different perspectives, I guess, tho I am not accusing you specifically of any of this abuse above.

On an another topic----------Providing links expressing sources is important, I guess, but often I feel that they are just other's opinions, even though arguably learned opinions. Having dealt with "Scientists" & "Specialists" all my career life, I am very skeptical of their proclamations based on narrow interpretations and stats having seen the results of many of their recommendations after implementation during my early years. Later, when a Manager, I certainly did not ignore them, just considered them as important learned input on specific subjects. My opinions I suppose are a composite of all that input, but I can't specifically refer to the sources anymore------way too numerous and forgotten. I realize that erodes what credibility I might have, and understand that.

Many of the sources that others provide links too are way over my head-----------:O If I can't understand them completely then they don't do me much good.

Barry
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:20 PM


Quote: Originally posted by captkw  
I firmly belive and know from two ex's..one above paradise ca and the other north of reno, and some friends and fishing post's..thats its easy to crunch numbers in regard to snow pack !! there really isn't any and the sun is out!! even the ski resorts with snow machines are closed.....Im always in Baja for winter and watch the waetrher in cali like a hawk...If it concerns my Finned Friends I'm all over it and it's not good..the rain season ends at the end of march...the 20/25 percent of norm was back 2 months ago when they do the pipe in the snow and weigh it thing.....warm rain and sun have removed much of the "pack" and I use the term loosly:wow:

[Edited on 2-16-2015 by captkw]


I agree 100% and don't forget the DUST that lands on the snowpack make's it melt way faster, IMO drought is considerably worse when you add the increasing population of humans that need it to live for food and drinking water, whether or not it is caused by Stupid humans or mother nature, the question iswhat's the solution if we cant make it rain enough to get what we need why can't we get it from the OCEAN, if NASA can go to mars they can figure out how to get salt out of the water in the ocean a practical way, and don't say No they can't it cost to much $$$ BS I guess if we could live off drinking oil there would be no probs EH!!
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:20 PM


Quote: Originally posted by monoloco  
Quote: Originally posted by Barry A.  
As several have said, "we live in a desert"!!!! (def.: under 10 inches per year)

Droughts happen (in a Desert) really rather often.

People who live in a Desert should expect and prepare for "drought" as it IS going to happen, and occasionally it is severe. It then follows that unless folks are near dying from dehydration, they really don't individually need "help" from the Fed. or State Government, but yes we do expect our Government to manage mega-things long-term when possible (inter-state water management), and so far they do a pretty good job, with exceptions as always happens.

This is NOT a panic situation, and it is NOT that over-all severe yet--------and what happens next macro-weather-wise is not really up to mankind anyway, and the long-term "stats" certainly confirm THAT.

Basically, what David K actually said is correct, and certainly not "absurd", IMO.

Barry



We should have been more prepared for drought, but we obviously aren't, considering that we somehow thought it was a good idea to put cities with millions of people and develop a huge agricultural industry in that desert. Now what? Tell everyone they need to move? Need to get your food somewhere else? Those are bitter pills to swallow.


No, No--------Don't "tell" the people anything, other than this can't just keep going on forever!!! Everybody "in the know" knew what they were doing and the eventual consequences, but did it anyway (there was money to be made). What I don't expect is "people" to just expect that the Govt. is somehow going to "bail them out", even tho that is the precedent that has been set (called 'moral hazard'). People will do what they will do------most will just deal with it, or move on (as they already are). In the mean time many will muddle thru, as we always seem to do (so far). Nature will dictate what finally happens, as always, unless man gets drastically involved and THEN all bets are off!!!.

Barry
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:27 PM


Quote: Originally posted by blackwolfmt  
Quote: Originally posted by captkw  
I firmly belive and know from two ex's..one above paradise ca and the other north of reno, and some friends and fishing post's..thats its easy to crunch numbers in regard to snow pack !! there really isn't any and the sun is out!! even the ski resorts with snow machines are closed.....Im always in Baja for winter and watch the waetrher in cali like a hawk...If it concerns my Finned Friends I'm all over it and it's not good..the rain season ends at the end of march...the 20/25 percent of norm was back 2 months ago when they do the pipe in the snow and weigh it thing.....warm rain and sun have removed much of the "pack" and I use the term loosly:wow:

[Edited on 2-16-2015 by captkw]


I agree 100% and don't forget the DUST that lands on the snowpack make's it melt way faster, IMO drought is considerably worse when you add the increasing population of humans that need it to live for food and drinking water, whether or not it is caused by Stupid humans or mother nature, the question iswhat's the solution if we cant make it rain enough to get what we need why can't we get it from the OCEAN, if NASA can go to mars they can figure out how to get salt out of the water in the ocean a practical way, and don't say No they can't it cost to much $$$ BS I guess if we could live off drinking oil there would be no probs EH!!


Agree!!! Doesn't Israel get much of it's fresh water from desalinization?? It can be done. Is it worth it is another matter.

Priorities, priorities, priorities!!!!

Barry
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:38 PM


Quote: Originally posted by sancho  
Snowfall in the Sierras Central Ca. is currently 20/25 percent of
average. DK is a wealth of knowledge when one wants
Info on camping on the sand tidal isle in front of Percebu,
why anyone would want to align oneself with any of his opinions
escapes me, unless one wants to be on his happy birthday
list he has for his followers


Let's be clear... I don't have followers, I believe in people and not government bureaucrats. My sand island would be long gone or much smaller if the seal levels rose in the 36 years I have been camping there. The hard salt flats would be underwater at every high tide, and not just the few extreme lunar high tides. My opinions are based on facts, observations, logic and common sense. Now that I am over 55, I think I can also use personal life... The weather is not any weirder than the sum of all the past years I can remember. In fact, it was more severe when I was a kid here in San Diego! We had water spouts off Del Mar and they came ashore up near Newport Beach and damaged buildings early 1960's (and that makes them tornadoes). We had snow on the ground deep enough to make a snowman (1967, I think). In 1977 or around then we had over 100 mph winds... Summers were a lot hotter and lake levels were a lot lower too.

I think saying Happy Birthday is nice, and I get notices on Linked In or Facebook when any Nomad who is also a Facebook friend or I remember it comes up.

Why is there such a desire to not be happy by some of you... Living in fear from global events is just making some of you unhappy campers. These past years of hope and change sure haven't cheered many up (except the government employees)!

I sure am looking forward to future Baja trips and times with my amigos!




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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:54 PM


Quote: Originally posted by DianaT  
Quote: Originally posted by David K  
March was almost a year ago, and there was no government draught water restrictions and that was my post, fact not myth.

....


The two most disturbing parts of your quote from last March was your statement that the drought was not that bad and is WAS and is still severe through out the state and then your absurd statement that somehow it was being made a crisis because of politics is really absurd. This is a MULTI-year drought.

The continued drought is not a myth, nor is the needed assistance to help deal with the impact from the continued SEVERE drought.

Because you had plenty of water at the time truly ignored the depth of the problem and was very narrowly shortsighted.


Quote:
David K from http://forums.bajanomad.com/viewthread.php?tid=72656&pag...

No, because the drought is not severe here... our local water supply is fine ........

Again, the crisis is largely political... rain will come... but they want more dollars, now.




[Edited on 2-16-2015 by DianaT]


LOL... as I said, according to the 'government' who makes the water restrictions... The same government who can't decide if it is global warming or cooling... I don't make up the rules Diana, I just reported back then what was THEN the facts... that water use was down, water restrictions were not needed and the drought was not that bad.

Obviously, government was wrong or they needed an excuse to restrict water use by private citizens... either way it was government making up the drought or water shortage. We never had enough water here for a large population or lots of groves, so we built reservoirs, dams, canals and aqueducts to BRING water here... about 50-120 years ago.
What happened since, climate change? NO! More people here, and losing 50% of our water to the Arizona Project so all the new people there could have some is the government created drought in SoCal.




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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:58 PM


oh man, you got him on a roll now..........:no:
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 05:58 PM


Barry,
Water resources are really the main topic on this thread....when someone comes out with accusations that people who differ in their political views/beliefs are New Age thinkers who want to take money from working people and expect the government to cater to all their needs in a "nanny state" is the lop-sided kind of statements I react to and consider such statements to be name-calling and an attempt to marginalize such viewpoints.

I can't be bothered with pouring over his or anyone else's posts to provide specific "evidence"....but may start to bookmark such missives to demonstrate my "rights to free speech" should it be required.

If he continues with such generalizing insults, I will likely continue to throw such turds back over the fence into his well-watered lawn.

I appreciate that your views may differ from others, but appreciate more that you don't present them with DK's twist.

Back to managing our limited and/or diminishing resources....

My father predicted 50 years ago that the USA would someday invade Canada for its water....our crappy free-trade agreement may well have set up a system where the invasion won't be required.





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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:03 PM


Quote: Originally posted by willardguy  
oh man, you got him on a roll now..........:no:


As usual, hearing the sound of a strong wind whistling by, or through empty space, it is time to retreat.
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:21 PM


Some Nomad has a sig line that says something about trying to teach a pig to sing....and that it disappoints the teacher and frustrates the pig....something like that.



Don't believe everything you think....
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Barry A.
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:22 PM


Quote: Originally posted by captkw  
I firmly belive and know from two ex's..one above paradise ca and the other north of reno, and some friends and fishing post's..thats its easy to crunch numbers in regard to snow pack !! there really isn't any and the sun is out!! even the ski resorts with snow machines are closed.....Im always in Baja for winter and watch the waetrher in cali like a hawk...If it concerns my Finned Friends I'm all over it and it's not good..the rain season ends at the end of march...the 20/25 percent of norm was back 2 months ago when they do the pipe in the snow and weigh it thing.....warm rain and sun have removed much of the "pack" and I use the term loosly:wow:

[Edited on 2-16-2015 by captkw]


It's bad, Capt., but not THAT bad. I just checked, and all the Tahoe Ski Areas are open, tho a few outside Tahoe are closed for now, including Mt. Shasta Ski Park.

If we don't get some significant snow soon, then we have a problem, and so far it's not lookin good.

Barry

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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:26 PM


Quote: Originally posted by motoged  
Barry,
Water resources are really the main topic on this thread....when someone comes out with accusations that people who differ in their political views/beliefs are New Age thinkers who want to take money from working people and expect the government to cater to all their needs in a "nanny state" is the lop-sided kind of statements I react to and consider such statements to be name-calling and an attempt to marginalize such viewpoints.

I can't be bothered with pouring over his or anyone else's posts to provide specific "evidence"....but may start to bookmark such missives to demonstrate my "rights to free speech" should it be required.

If he continues with such generalizing insults, I will likely continue to throw such turds back over the fence into his well-watered lawn.

I appreciate that your views may differ from others, but appreciate more that you don't present them with DK's twist.

Back to managing our limited and/or diminishing resources....

My father predicted 50 years ago that the USA would someday invade Canada for its water....our crappy free-trade agreement may well have set up a system where the invasion won't be required.



---------as long as they don't come after OUR NoCal water--------remember, we are all red-necks up here (except Vag and a few others) and we do have our guns!!! :bounce:

Barry
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:31 PM


They are still skiing in the little mountains near Los Angeles... I can see the snow on them from down here, 100 miles away just today!

Some folks really need to get off of MSNBC and look at the world for themselves... Go to a beach where they went as kids. I bet the parking lot there is still above sea level! LOL




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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:46 PM


I wanna hear the one about how Greenland's rising due to tectonics, and NOT the melting, as this slipped through the referee journal / peer review process! (But the sprinkler guy knows better!) Tell us that one again Uncy Dave!! pleeease!!!

:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
(impossible to make this stuff up!)
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 06:48 PM


Quote: Originally posted by David K  
They are still skiing in the little mountains near Los Angeles... I can see the snow on them from down here, 100 miles away just today!

Some folks really need to get off of MSNBC and look at the world for themselves... Go to a beach where they went as kids. I bet the parking lot there is still above sea level! LOL


ARE U for real DK = (Don't Know) what your talking about 24" base at the summit ain't normal for winter those winters are rare anymore are you a lobbyist in your spare time?? No really are U
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 07:20 PM


I bet the parking lot there is still above sea level! LOL


yuk it up david. just exactly what are you willing to bet?:?:
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[*] posted on 2-16-2015 at 08:15 PM


Quote: Originally posted by captkw  
I firmly belive and know from two ex's..one above paradise ca and the other north of reno, and some friends and fishing post's..thats its easy to crunch numbers in regard to snow pack !! there really isn't any and the sun is out!! even the ski resorts with snow machines are closed.....Im always in Baja for winter and watch the waetrher in cali like a hawk...If it concerns my Finned Friends I'm all over it and it's not good..the rain season ends at the end of march...the 20/25 percent of norm was back 2 months ago when they do the pipe in the snow and weigh it thing.....warm rain and sun have removed much of the "pack" and I use the term loosly:wow:

[Edited on 2-16-2015 by captkw]


I was honored to be invited to do a major presentation of my research at the final banquet of the annual convention of the Snow Survey Division of the California (note: NOT Cali) Department of Water Resources in Mt. Shasta City in late 2013. I found the highly educated, dedicated scientists in attendance to be bright, inquisitive, and dedicated professionals who did not impress me as people inclined to "crunch their numbers". I found them, instead, to be deeply committed to providing the best possible data to predict water availability from California's snow pack. I was drawn to a particular conversation I overheard in the bar while on my way to the John. They were discussing how, on behalf of the government, they could do a better job of personally screwing-up David Kier, and costing him more money! Well, maybe I made that part up....




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