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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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the net fishermen here are reporting some sporadic tuna already just a few miles off Asuncion where there is warmer water...dont write Blanca off yet,
she could surprise you!...er us! Either way it looks like heavy rain here on Monday...gettin my sand bags ready.
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BajaNomad
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Threads Merged
6-4-2015 at 08:19 PM |
BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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BajaNomad
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Thread Topped
6-4-2015 at 08:27 PM |
Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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Blanca was downgraded to Category 2 today but...
Blanca now Category 4, heading for Baja
Blanca was just a tropical storm on Monday but now it threatens to become a Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow, and it’s heading for Baja California
Sur.
Forecasters say that if it does make landfall in Baja it will do so some time on Sunday but will have weakened considerably by then. However,
residents of Los Cabos and the southern part of the peninsula are being advised to monitor the storm’s progress.
Blanca has strengthened quickly since it formed Monday, becoming a Category 1 hurricane yesterday morning and intensifying rapidly since, becoming a
major hurricane, Category 4, this morning.
The Weather Channel said it could reach Category 5 by tomorrow.
As of 10:00am central time it was stationary, sitting 675 kilometers south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Guerrero, and 735 kilometers south of Manzanillo,
Colima. Maximum sustained winds were 215 km/h.
No coastal warnings are in effect but swells will begin to be seen over the next two days, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The storm is expected to strengthen further in the next 48 hours and begin to move northwest during the next 24. Since it represents a potential
threat to the Baja peninsula, a reconnaissance aircraft is expected to investigate the storm on Friday.
The National Meteorological Service warns that very heavy rain can be expected in Jalisco, Michoacán and Guerrero along with electrical storms, hail
and strong winds.
Blanca is the earliest second major hurricane to form in the eastern north Pacific since 1971, said the NHC.
It was only eight months ago that Los Cabos was hit by Hurricane Odile, destroying as many as 8,000 homes and businesses and stranding thousands of
tourists. Fifteen people died during the storm’s six-day course and damages were estimated at 16 billion pesos.
UPDATE Thursday, June 4: Blanca was downgraded to Category 2 today but the NHC said at 4:00pm Central Time that it could gain strength over the next
24 to 36 hours. It is expected to deliver rain and wind to Baja California Sur, where it should make landfall Saturday night or Sunday morning. It was
reported to be situated 695 kilometers south of Manzanillo, Colima, and 1,225 kilometers south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, BCS, this afternoon.
Mexico News Daily
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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wessongroup
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21152
Registered: 8-9-2009
Location: Mission Viejo
Member Is Offline
Mood: Suicide Hot line ... please hold
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Hang on ...
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Not so nice forecast
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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cj5orion
Nomad
Posts: 336
Registered: 2-6-2010
Location: Pacific Beach/Gonzaga Bay
Member Is Offline
Mood: time for a cervaza !!!
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Sailflow is now forecasting... !!
Blanca stalls out jus BEFORE landfall !!!
Home Remodels/Builds..Recession!
Gone BAJA BUILDIN/FISHIN !
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Even as a storm it can drop a lot of water and cause major flooding.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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Yes, people don't remember that most of the major floods in Mulege were caused by rain from Hurricanes which did not pass directly over the area,
Odile being an exception....ITS THE RAIN! NHC says that Blanca is strengthening this morning......
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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No way it ever becomes anything but a Cat 2-3, and that will be short-lived. I see TS category IF it even makes Baja. Poor environment, dead ahead,
for Blanca.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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DaliDali
Super Nomad
Posts: 1132
Registered: 4-21-2010
Location: BCS
Member Is Offline
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Quote: Originally posted by Hook  | | No way it ever becomes anything but a Cat 2-3, and that will be short-lived. I see TS category IF it even makes Baja. Poor environment, dead ahead,
for Blanca. |
Every track forecast takes Blanca right over the top of Baja.
There is little doubt Blanca WILL make it to Baja...
The only question still yet to be determined is at what strength.
TS or tropical depression.
Either or, a TS and TD are prolific rain producing phenoms of nature and can take days to unwind.
TS or TD.......Baja will get very wet in the coming days.
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Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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NOAA link
Satellite image of Blanca heading towards Baja
http://t.co/ieYOpac0J4
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
Member Is Offline
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Go to your room! And leave me alone. Fixation??
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Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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Interesting NOAA storm animated images here
Directory: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/
Colorful!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/tpac/jsl-animated.gif
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Howie, the only fixation is you on yourself.
Go to YOUR room, and leave the rest of us alone. 
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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PREACHIN' TO THE CHOIR....
Those in the central-BCS area, especially Mulege, if 'twere me i'd be getting my stuff to higher ground. Regardless of status, WATER IS COMING. You
have a few days. Also, as learned last year, please get your commissaries stocked and fuel stored.
Be safe, be prepared. Those of us not there, but who have been there are with you and your families.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
...BLANCA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR ON SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 108.3W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 108.3 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast by Saturday evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.
Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. No
significant change in strength is expected through Saturday.
Weakening is forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and Blanca should
weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches the southern Baja
California peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Sunday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015
Blanca appears to have become a little better organized during the
past few hours. The eye does not look quite as ragged although it
is becoming more cloud filled. Deep convection is doing a better
job of wrapping around the eye, but there is still some asymmetry
with very intense convection occurring within the southeastern
quadrant. As a result, Dvorak estimates have risen to T5.5/102 kt
from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB. However, since the Hurricane
Hunters found Blanca's intensity to be on the low end of the earlier
satellite estimates, the maximum winds are conservatively raised to
85 kt on this advisory.
The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/9 kt. Mid-level
high pressure over northern Mexico should keep Blanca moving
northwestward in the short term, but the hurricane is forecast to
turn north-northwestward in 24 hours due to a shortwave trough
approaching from the west. This north-northwestward motion should
then continue until dissipation, bringing Blanca near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula in 48-72 hours. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, with varying speeds being the
main issue, and the official track forecast is near the various
multi-model consensus models.
If Blanca is going to strengthen any further, it probably only has
another 24 hours to do so while vertical shear is low and sea
surface temperatures are over 26C. After 24 hours, a more hostile
environment should lead to fairly quick weakening, with Blanca
becoming a tropical storm between 36-48 hours while it approaches
the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is then
expected to become a tropical depression by day 3 and dissipate
over the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula between days
4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM models and is not much different from the previous
forecast.
Based on the latest forecast, a tropical storm warning would likely
be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula
Saturday morning.
Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 16.1N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.4N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Thank you Doug,
MULEGE PREPARE
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
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these little balls are deceiving...lots of water coming
last time the eye was located in the middle of Baja we got a lot of water...
today the prediction has increased from 1.5 inches to 2.5 inches
the wind wont be too bad but the water will be muddy
that's just a guess...
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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Here is advisory #23 from the NHC:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 109.2 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest is
forecast by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Blanca is
expected to approach the coast in the warning area late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h)with higher
gusts. Blanca is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast today
but weakening is forecast tonight and Sunday. Blanca is forecast to
be near hurricane strength as it approaches the southern Baja
California peninsula.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area on Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane
watch area Sunday and Sunday night.
RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
portion of Baja California, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 7 inches over Baja California Sur.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
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