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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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IR satellite and radar don't lie. Computer model projections of storm direction - well, that's different... simply tech speculation. Just sayin'.
Here's the latest... Hurricane Simon is now Category FOUR:
HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...
...THE 6TH OF THE SEASON...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST. SIMON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...215
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SIMON PROBABLY HAS REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD SOON BEGIN AS IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWEST MEXICO. STARTING
ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014
After the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today,
satellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct and
surrounded by very deep convection. Dvorak subjective and
objective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 on
the Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity was
adjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category Four
Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season.
Simon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters,
and as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so.
Most of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone moves
northward toward the mid-latitude westerlies. Based on these two
factors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during the
next few days. In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it is
likely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.
Simon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or
315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon is
forecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simon
northward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies,
and a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48
hours. One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move after
recurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement in
accelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quite
so fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair at
this time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to be
indicated in the next forecast.
The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring
another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a
few days.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18380
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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BOLA is gonna get a nuther storm.
Batten down the hatches!
When it rains it pours!
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
I am curious to know if anyone is getting any rain anywhere? |
We encountered a nice steady rain between
Ciudad Constitution and Loreto this afternoon. Trying to get to the border before Simon hits.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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RedBear
Junior Nomad
Posts: 32
Registered: 7-31-2009
Location: Point Loma, CA; Punta Abreojos, BCS
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talked to my husband earlier this evening and they got a good strong wind and a steady rain at Abreojos. Now just waiting & hoping the storm
looses steam offshore.
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Bob H
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5867
Registered: 8-19-2003
Location: San Diego
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Guerrero Negro.... just mentioned on the news, may be the place in the path! Hang on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The SAME boiling water that softens the potato hardens the egg. It's about what you are made of NOT the circumstance.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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uh huh...that blob over the Vizcaino Reserva was what drove me from my tent last night. It was a sweet gentle rain with a slight breeze...but my tent
dripped dang it.
the swell is building and it is cloudy here...supposed to get to 17' tomorrow night which will be a problem with the full moon high tide that evening
and possible rain...get the buckets and mops ready.
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Bajame
Nomad
Posts: 458
Registered: 6-12-2005
Member Is Offline
Mood: Baja Dreamin
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My plans were to leave today for San Ignacio but decided that it wouldn't be a good idea . Just have to wait it out as the after math can be too hard
to deal with .
We all want a peaceful world, filled with love and laughter, but we fill ourselves with anger and hate trying to fiqure out how to achive it.
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bajalearner
Senior Nomad
Posts: 670
Registered: 8-24-2010
Location: Tijuana
Member Is Offline
Mood: in search of more
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Remember, it's just the storm before the calm. Good luck to you guys.
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Katiejay99
Nomad
Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
Mood: it is what it is
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Good luck to all of you in the path of Simon. You will be in my thoughts and prayers.
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boe4fun
Super Nomad
Posts: 1040
Registered: 1-22-2006
Location: Margaritaville
Member Is Offline
Mood: Circling the drain........
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Good luck to all our amigos in BA. Hope you all don't get hit too hard, take care y'all. P & S
Two dirt roads diverged in Baja and I, I took the one less graveled by......
Soy ignorante, apático y ambivalente. No lo sé y no me importa, ni modo.
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bajacalifornian
Super Nomad
Posts: 1117
Registered: 9-4-2010
Location: Loreto/Lopez Mateos/Rosarito
Member Is Offline
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Current Satellite Image
American by birth, Mexican by choice.
Signature addendum: Danish physicist — Niels Bohr — who said, “The opposite of one profound truth may very well be another profound truth.
Jeff Petersen
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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Here is my amateur interpretation of this morning's reporting from the NHS and its models:
Simon became a Category 4 hurricane over the open sea. It rapidly diminished in intensity after reaching waters cooler than 26 degrees celcius (78.8
degrees farenheit), since waters below this threshold cannot support a hurricane.
Simon is now a Category 2 huricane and rapidly diminishing in force. It is expected to become a tropical storm by tomorrow morning if not sooner, and
a remnant low later on Monday or on Tuesday.
Simon will likely bring significant rainfall to parts of central and north-cental Baja.
Since there were flooded arroyos in the aftermath of the earlier storms, these arroyos might become flooded again.
Anyone who is considering driving down Highway 1 should wait for the system to pass and leave only after receiving confirmation that the Highway is
passable.
Simon generated significant surf, and perhaps the high surf, high tides and rains might pose a problem for exposed areas in central Baja.
I hope this summary helps. If it is not helpful, I will not make the attempt again and apologize in advance. I am new to this, but I have been
following this pretty closely.
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014
...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
WITH A DECREASE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4999
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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Current IR satellite and computer model projections:
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999 |
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CatCrazyJulie
Junior Nomad
Posts: 57
Registered: 10-7-2006
Location: Morro Bay, CA
Member Is Offline
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Weellllll...we had been planning on heading south today, which would have put us right in the wrong place at the wrong time. But due to unrelated
circumstances, our departure date was pushed back a couple of days, to Tuesday; the delay is now looking serendipitous. We can drive down to our
friends' house in San Diego and hang out till we get a chance to see what Simon hath wrought.
I feel for the folks in BOLA.
Julie
[Edited on 10-5-2014 by CatCrazyJulie]
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
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Mood: Enthusiastic
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Even if Simon will cause no harm as a hurricane, it appears highly likely that it will bring significant rains, which in turn might flood various
arroyos in central and southern Baja, making roads impassable.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hurricane-simon-p...
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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looks like our spinning is working to convince Simon to ease on up the coast gently...(above us) and not cross over here.
Last night was a stunning red sunset and the swell was getting bigger.
[URL=http://s1327.photobucket.com/user/labufadorainn/media/Hurricane%20Simon%20Oct%205/DSC00092_zps15301981.jpg.html][IMG]http://i1327.photobucket.com
/albums/u673/labufadorainn
/Hurricane%20Simon%20Oct%205/DSC00092_zps15301981.jpg[/IMG][/URL]
today the sky is stunningly dramatic and people are gassing and stocking up ready for the rain. My last load of towels is not drying very fast with
all the salt spray from the blowhole out here. I am a wee bit dizzy from spinning but will keep it up.
Here is the view from my laundry line of the coop under some really groovy clouds...o rain as of yet today.
the Islas group is having their event at the beach today and getting a real work out in the waves. I'm glad the weather is holding out for them so
far.
[Edited on 10-5-2014 by shari]
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