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Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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NOAA update
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/140858....
Be safe. Sounds bad.
WTPZ35 KNHC 141135
TCPEP5
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014
...CATEGORY 4 ODILE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO LA PAZ
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
MULEGE.
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO
SANTA ROSALIA.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE THE HURRICANE NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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Katiejay99
Nomad
Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
Mood: it is what it is
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Nervous doesn't even begin to say how I feel right now.
This is going to be horrendous all up and down the Baja.
Good luck everyone.
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windgrrl
Super Nomad
Posts: 1329
Registered: 9-2-2006
Member Is Offline
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May you all be safe.
When the way comes to an end, then change. Having changed, you pass through.
~ I-Ching
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Pappy Jon
Nomad
Posts: 494
Registered: 8-27-2003
Location: Wrong side of the Continental divide.
Member Is Offline
Mood: Temp rising.
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| Quote: | | Originally posted by bajabuddhaBy Friday heavy flooding in the desert southwest of the U.S. will also be a repeat of Norbert.
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Never saw Norbert in central NM (ABQ). We can only hope Odile spews something our way.
Good luck to those in the south cape.
"The association of flowers and warm-blooded love is more than a romantic convention; it is based upon one of the great advances in the evolution
of life." Ed Abbey
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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it seems like the just keep coming. stay safe out there!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
Member Is Offline
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8 a.m. Sunday, Mulege
It's clear skies and without wind right now. Not too hot nor humid. Amazing to know there is a major hurricane just below.
Stay well, southern friends. Be prepared and if you're not - forget about it and make do as you are. Get indoors and stay there. The operative now is
safety!
Keep up informed as you can.
May all being be safe from harm. ~ Mulegena
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Mulegena, current predictions say although the eye will be west, you'll get substantial rainfall in the upper basin; i'd get the word out to the
Estero folks pronto; going to be a test of the drainage work for certain. Be well.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajabuddha
Mulegena, current predictions say although the eye will be west... |
Predictions of storm intensity are more reliable than storm direction. If the storm heads anywhere near Land's End, there is a real possibility it
could head up the SOC. This is what happened with Hurricane John in 2006.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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Double trouble.... ugh.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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CAT 4 now! yeeek.... ^watch the model til the end^ another one gonna come knocking.
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Katiejay99
Nomad
Posts: 429
Registered: 9-3-2008
Location: Todos Santos
Member Is Offline
Mood: it is what it is
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I just came back from town and I just can't believe it but all of the locals are saying that the "noticias" this morning are saying that there will be
lots of rain and hardly any wind with the storm. Nobody is preparing here! I told the lady at the grocery store to please let the people know that
there is going to be LOTS of wind with this!
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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We just ran into some folks at the beach who thought it was going to rain and that was it.
Frankly, I am scared
We are rushing to finish what we started for Norbert.
Pray for us
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blackwolfmt
Senior Nomad
Posts: 802
Registered: 1-18-2014
Location: On The Beach With A Blackwolf
Member Is Offline
Mood: dreamin of Riden out a hurricane in Baja
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ODILE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.htmlODILE
Looks like you folks are in for a whopper hope people are getin prepared may the force be with you
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13045
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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This is always a problem that people just dont think a major hurricane will hit. I am VERY worried about this storm and hope you all take every
precaution. I also urge Doug to allow a separate thread for local on the scene updates that are soooo important for us who live here. Please dont
underestimate mother nature!
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wiltonh
Nomad
Posts: 301
Registered: 2-2-2007
Member Is Offline
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Here is what happened in 1976 when La Paz took a direct hit. 3800 died from flooding.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zbCk1_ee9AQ
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Jonno_aus
Junior Nomad
Posts: 37
Registered: 11-8-2013
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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If you prepare, it'll be fine. I'm bummed I can't be on th pacific side to experience it. La paz expecting 100-110 km/h winds so better then nothing.
Prepare, then sit with some wine or Cerveza and enjoy. 
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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http://eebmike.com/ = probable path of Odile
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH
WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.
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Zola
Nomad
Posts: 122
Registered: 9-7-2014
Location: San Juanico, Point Loma
Member Is Offline
Mood: Enthusiastic
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If you can, batten down the hatches and evacuate to a safe place. If you cannot evacuate, batten down the hatches. With luck, this one will stay out
at sea and bring only massive downpours and tropical force winds. The storm is very large, and tropical force winds extend for 185 miles in every
direction except the northwest. This is a category 4 hurricane. I do not mean to sound alarmist, and let's hope for the best, but now is the time to
rush all of your preparations to conclusion, and for a category 3 or higher you evacuate if you can.
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bajalinda
Senior Nomad
Posts: 551
Registered: 6-7-2008
Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
Member Is Offline
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what a difference an overnight makes - yesterday at this time were thinking that Odile would be somewhat of a non-event. HA! not so!
we are certainly expecting the power to go out and not stay on as it did during Norbert. will post reports as I am able to - stay safe everyone.
now back to storm prep.....
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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For those in harm's way, reminder: flying debris is a major cause of injury. Think ahead for a good place of cover and shelter; glass is the first to
go, and there'll be plenty of cheap tin roofs flying around too, so pick a leeward wall to hunker behind. Also as the storm passes, wind directions
will change, so please, get prepared; rain will be sideways and coming in under doors, between walls and roofs, so stuff will get wet; but stuff is
just stuff. Think ahead, there's a lot of good folk rooting for you.
Those who think they 'wish they were there' to enjoy the party have obviously never experienced major hurricane or tornado events; i'd be running like
hell right now.
Storm will hit about midnight at Cabo, early Tuesday at Loreto/Mulege. So far will keep hurricane intensity all the way to Guerrero. And on a
brighter note, there's another one forming in Tuanepec as we speak, potential for yet another in a week or so..... fun in Paradise.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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