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Naomi
Newbie
Posts: 21
Registered: 9-23-2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Member Is Offline
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As of 11:00AM PDT:
HURRICANE JOHN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JOHN NEARING BAJA CALIFORNIA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD TO BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST...AND NORTHWARD FROM SAN EVERISTO
TO LORETO ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM LORETO NORTHWARD TO MULEGE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
135 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
JOHN HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR... BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
WITHIN 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK JOHN WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOHN IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS
WOULD BRING JOHN BACK TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.
JOHN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...40 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTALS UP TO 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO COULD RECEIVE AN
ADDITIONAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 18
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION......22.3 N...109.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
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Al G
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2647
Registered: 12-19-2004
Location: Todos Santos/Full time for now...
Member Is Offline
Mood: Wondering what is next???
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Worth saving??
Albert G
Remember, if you haven\'t got a smile on your face and laughter in your heart, then you are just a sour old fart!....
The most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value.
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Cincodemayo
Senior Nomad
Posts: 725
Registered: 3-7-2005
Location: Pacific NW
Member Is Offline
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Definitely one ominous picture. I love extreme weather but being there would certainly be a "what the heck am I doing here" moment especially when
you run out of water, beer and food. Hoping for the best for all there.
I fear for all when the water comes crashing down from the mountains and hills...not to mention the wind....be safe all.
Don\'t get mad...
Get EVEN.
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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NOON in La Paz
Across the inner bay from La Paz on the beach between Comitan & Centenario a very light rain with tiny widely- spaced drops has begun to fall
& the wind is picking up slightly. There was some truly awesome thunder & lightening that lit up the entire sky over the bay between 1-4 AM
last night! I was outside trying to capture some of it in a movie on my digital! Will worry LATER about how to convert it to still shots!
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capitolkat
Senior Nomad
Posts: 510
Registered: 3-9-2006
Member Is Offline
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Unfortuanately it looks like for the last six hours the storm center has continued north but has ceased its westward drift. The last reported
longitude is 108.8W, the same it was six hours ago but latitude is now 22N versus 21.2N six hours ago.
What that means-- don't know- as the shift west could resume as the storm closes on the headlands of Cabo. Seems like its about 80 miles out now and
moving about 8 mph-- but if it continues this track it will hit - not glance off the tip of the peninsula.
Mother nature has a way of making us humble. My continued prayers are with those riding out the storm.
Life is too short to drink bad wine
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Taco de Baja
Super Nomad
Posts: 1913
Registered: 4-14-2004
Location: Behind the Orange Curtain, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: Dreamin' of Baja
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My concern is that the warm waters of the SOC will suck it east and right up the gulf.....Still no computer models showing that though, so they must
"know" something I do not.
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
Member Is Offline
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Wind & driving rain in La Paz.....it is my personal opinion that John is going to be showing Marty how a hurricane is SUPPOSED to
behave....strongly & unpredictable!!!!! This is only the beginning!!!!
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Al G
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2647
Registered: 12-19-2004
Location: Todos Santos/Full time for now...
Member Is Offline
Mood: Wondering what is next???
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CNN just reported 1 mph below Cat 3 and slowing.
Offically It is a cat 2. It is now moving towards Del San Jose
Albert G
Remember, if you haven\'t got a smile on your face and laughter in your heart, then you are just a sour old fart!....
The most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value.
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
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This one looks a lot how I remember Marty. Marty sat W of where the eye of John is now, just S of los cabos. Sat and sat then all of a sudden
started to move very fast. When I went to sleep the night before Marty struck at 11pm he was still in that same position S of los cabos. By 8am the
following day the schools were closed as I discovered when bringing mine to nursery school. I decided to go shopping instead and inside the ISSSTE
were frantic people buying up batteries, water, food, etc. According to the radio it was already 34 Km N of La Paz at that time and moving at 24kph
due North. So I rushed home and we immediately covered our exposed North walls as we were under construction then. That was the beginning, then I
did somethign completely stupid and went out to town to take care of the shop. The following day seeing the damage and where we were at the times we
were we could have been seriously injured or killed. Will never go out during a storm again. Very scary and Marty was a borderline cat 1-2 storm.
Its eye passed about 30 miles east of Loreto before hitting the Santa Rosalia area.
Remember the storm moves counter-clockwise so you can determine how the rain and winds will affect you from your position in reference to its eye.
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pacside
Nomad
Posts: 316
Registered: 1-16-2006
Location: N. Cal
Member Is Offline
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Good luck and God speed fellow nomads and locals down in baja sur. I am happy I delayed my trip as it wouldn't of been fun with just me and
junior...hubby couldn't go due to work. Wondering if our beachfront lot on Playa Los Cerritos will still be there. Of course this is just land and not
life and limb. When interviewing architects to build our casita a local one in Todos Santos recommended building on some type of platform or piers due
to water passing through during storms. The architects in Los Cabos didn't think that was necessary. I think I will listen to the local. In any event
I hope everyone including the locals in flimsy houses take care and get to high ground away from the arroyos. Seeing pictures of Playa San Pedrito
after that last hurricane and the havoc it created makes one respect nature and hopefully everyone has taken the necessary precautions to protect
family.
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JESSE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3370
Registered: 11-5-2002
Member Is Offline
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Its going into the mar de cortez, right at us.
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djh
Senior Nomad
Posts: 936
Registered: 1-2-2005
Location: Earth mostly. Loreto, N. ID, Big Island
Member Is Offline
Mood: Mellow fellow, plays a yellow cello...
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Best wishes
Best wishes, Nomads. I've been watching and monitoring, and saying a few prayers for you and all of our Mexican neighbors.
I feel a little guilty being here in Idaho while bully, John frightens and intimidates there. Wish I could offer some help... encouragement seems to
be all I can offer right now.
Help and take care of each other in the Nomad tradition.
djh and Shing.
Its all just stuff and some numbers.
A day spent sailing isn\'t deducted from one\'s life.
Peace, Love, and Music
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mike odell
Nomad
Posts: 267
Registered: 12-17-2002
Location: La Ribera BCS
Member Is Offline
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Hey Jesse,
What weather site did you just see this about entering SOC?
I havent seen a update that shows this yet. Here is La Ribera
we are currently having rain squalls and intermittent wind gusts. A new update is due out at 2 pm pacific time.
Stay Safe!
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Natalie Ann
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2819
Registered: 8-22-2003
Location: Berkeley
Member Is Offline
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I offer prayers, friends... all kinds of 'em. Be safe everyone.
Be yourself, everyone else is already taken.
.....Oscar Wilde
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
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With Marty's eye to the east of us our North took the brunt of the winds. The N wall of the marina was destroyed and the winds were funneled through
"the windows" that low spot at Puerto Escondido causing damage to over a dozen boats anchored there. Many sank or were beyond repair. The streets in
Loreto turned into rivers and they were quite deep in places. since I was driving home through there were places where water went through the floor
into my truck and I made sure to drive in the high places near the mission and downtown shops. Those cobblestone streets are the highest. From what
I can remember the surge was 3-4 feet. The road to my house reminded me of one time were were inundated at San Javier. It was like driving through a
waterfall. I gunned it and just made it home.
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Al G
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 2647
Registered: 12-19-2004
Location: Todos Santos/Full time for now...
Member Is Offline
Mood: Wondering what is next???
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Mike, CNN in motion satellite is showing a wobble and now is head alittle east toward Cabo Del San Jose. Colud go SOC or Pacific????????
[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Al G]
Albert G
Remember, if you haven\'t got a smile on your face and laughter in your heart, then you are just a sour old fart!....
The most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value.
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Naomi
Newbie
Posts: 21
Registered: 9-23-2003
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Member Is Offline
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My thoughts are with all in BCS. I remember how badly La Paz was damaged during Marty. My Mom is in Los Fralies so I'm hoping it will continue east
and not follow Marty's path (even though it seems she will be close to the eye of the storm regardless).
Stay safe and know that us Nomads in the states are wishing you the best!
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capitolkat
Senior Nomad
Posts: 510
Registered: 3-9-2006
Member Is Offline
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Mike odell
the weather site
www.wunderground.com
has a tropical weather link. They show John continuing true north at 108.8 longitude at between 6-8 mph. If that holds for the next few hours then
its right in the mouth of the SOC and east of San Jose Del Cabo. These things can twist and turn, stop , change directions , but it looks like for
over 8 hours now it has slowly churned north and stopped it's westerly drift. If it again turns west it could rake the coast as it passes over both
SJDC and CSL.
This is looking very grim from my viewpoint 3000 miles away.
God bless and continue to hope for the best-- Norm
Life is too short to drink bad wine
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flyfishinPam
Super Nomad
Posts: 1727
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Loreto, BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: gone fishin'
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Maybe Jesse's seeing this:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200611_model...
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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
Member Is Offline
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Anyones' guess where
This thing won't decide where to go. This latest "real time" shows it drifting east. Maybe there isn't a god after all. 
We'll send a panga full of prayers while we hold our breath.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/eastpac/storm/ar...
[Edited on 9-1-2006 by Sharksbaja]
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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