good idea to get out of the arroyos for a few days! Thinking of you all in harms way although sure looks like things arent too bad this morning so
far...later today will tell the tale of how Blanca will track...long night ahead around Mag Bay I imagine!
I look forward to onsite reports today as long as we have internet which probably isnt for much longer as it gets unusable in the daytime lately.
Dark skies to the south of us, swell building but still partly sunny and calm here in Asuncion.
It just started sprinkling here. Completely overcast and the ocean looks quite "angry". I can't get down to it right now because I put a row of
sandbags across the entry and can't get out. The wind is refreshing and gusty.
HURRICANE BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR SOON...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 111.0W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blanca is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of
Blanca will approach the southwest coast of the Baja California
peninsula later today, and move near or along the coast tonight and
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight
before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja California
peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
by Monday evening.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
southern portion of the warning area within a few hours, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions will then spread northward elsewhere within the warning
area later today and Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area later today and tonight.
RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 10 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern
half of the state of Baja California, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches over Baja California Sur. These rains
could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.
HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015
The satellite presentation of Blanca continues to deteriorate, with
the eye no longer visible and the coverage and intensity of deep
convection diminishing. The current intensity is set at 80 kt which
is a blend of Dvorak T and Current Intensity numbers. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a good estimate of the
intensity in a few hours. Under the influence of progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures, southerly vertical shear, and the
terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should
continue to weaken quickly. The official intensity forecast is
close to the intensity model consensus and calls for the system to
weaken to a tropical storm within 12 to 24 hours. Blanca will
likely degenerate to a remnant low within a couple of days.
The initial motion estimate, 340/10 kt, is about the same as in the
previous advisory. Blanca should continue to move along the western
periphery of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
also very close to the dynamical model consensus.
Moisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to
affect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.
Does anyone know by when the rains will likely reach San Juanico? We are trying to decide right now whether we should stay put or leave immediately.
Thanks.
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
The windy web site posted by CJ above shows it right off of Scorpion Bay tomorrow (Monday) mid to late morning... Take a look for yourself and note
the timeline at the bottom of the map. Leave how, by plane, yes... by car which direction? North being best, but it will be right behind you all the
way to Gonzaga Bay.
We would leave by car right now to take the north route. My concern is that the rain may damage the roads to the north and the south, and now it
appears that another system is forming off the coast of Central America. If we leave now by the north can we make it without getting caught in the
storm?
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
I don't know what kind of driver you are or vehicle you are in... If you know the road to San Ignacio well, then you know how long it will take you to
get there. If you break down, and need to sleep in your car, the arroyos will be flowing and you could be stuck for some time. I would find out if
anyone else waited to the last minute and travel together.
After the hurricane passes, you would need to take the paved road out via Loreto... and even it could be closed for a day with landslides and washed
out bridges, etc.
Zola, I think if you left now (as in within the next hour) you have a possibility of outrunning Blanca. Two variables; how fast you drive, and how
fast everyone else is driving that also waited until the last minute to outrun the storm. If you stay, plan on being there a while. It's going to
track right up the peninsula, and will probably take out several sections of Hwy 1. According to news reports the Gov't has put in a bunch of
agencies (Army, Marines, Power Co. etc.) to facilitate repairs, but it's still going to be a mess.
I bet you wait 'till Dec. 24th to do your xmas shopping too, huh!
Good luck and be safe, whichever you choose. There are plenty of maps on the last 2 pages to tell you the time-frames of what to expect. I'd be
concerned of northbound traffic myself.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
That makes my decision for me. We planned to be here for the summer.
Even though I know the north road by heart and have a trusty car for the purpose, if they can clear the south road in short order, then we can leave
by the south if we need to at a later date. We have our home here. We love Southern Baja.
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
What was not in our plans was having a full-scale hurricane season that would start on June 1. I hope that the next few storms go out far to the west
of Baja, which is what I thought they were supposed to do until mid-August at the earliest! There is another system forming right now, with a 60%
chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 5 days...
This is our first summer as residents here.
“Sometimes the questions are complicated and the answers are simple.” Dr. Seuss
“Never wrestle with pigs. You both get dirty and the pig likes it.” George Bernard Shaw
There are lots of record cold, record rains, record... going on this year. Maybe Baja felt left out? Maybe she doesn't have a calendar?
While the hurricanes usually hold off until later in the season, the weather in Baja has been setting the stage for an earlier beginning to the storms
and the hurricane season (based on the calendar) has begun. Anything can happen.
San Juanico is an amazing place to have to spend time. I do applaud your
decision to not drive north at this point. It started to rain this morning at San Ignacio Lagoon. Not hard, but no telling what the road looks like
right now....and you do not want to get stuck on that road with lots of rain coming!
"If it were lush and rich, one could understand the pull, but it is fierce and hostile and sullen.
The stone mountains pile up to the sky and there is little fresh water. But we know we must go back
if we live, and we don't know why." - Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
"People don't care how much you know, until they know how much you care." - Theodore Roosevelt
"You can easily judge the character of others by how they treat those who they think can do nothing for them or to them." - Malcolm Forbes
"Let others lead small lives, but not you. Let others argue over small things, but not you. Let others
cry over small hurts, but not you. Let others leave their future in someone else's hands, but not you." - Jim Rohn
"The best way to get the right answer on the internet is not to ask a question; it's to post the wrong answer." - Cunningham's Law
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![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
I do applaud your
decision to not drive north at this point. It started to rain this morning at San Ignacio Lagoon. Not hard, but no telling what the road looks like
right now....and you do not want to get stuck on that road with lots of rain coming!
