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Author: Subject: Tis the season - Dual Hurricanes: Andres & Blanca
BajaNomad
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 11:21 AM






When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 11:32 AM
Continued weakening; sustained winds of 80mph currently.


HURRICANE BLANCA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
1200 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

...BLANCA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 110.9W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...455 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Blanca was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 110.9 West. Blanca is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Blanca will approach the
southwest coast of the Baja California peninsula later today, and
move near or along the coast tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Blanca is expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight
before it reaches the southwestern coast of the Baja California
peninsula. Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
by Monday evening.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 979 mb (28.91 inches).





When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

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Zola
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 11:48 AM


It is calm, hazy, a little muggy, and with a mild breeze here in San Juanico. It is very pleasant overall at the moment. All of the campers have left town.



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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 12:00 PM


IN La Paz--in the last hour winds have picked up from the SE, estimate at 20/30 mph with higher gusts. No rain yet but clouds are building to the north. Expect the wind to shift as the storm moves NW. We are in Centenario which is on the West side of La paz just west of the highway.



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El Jefe
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 12:20 PM


Just started to rain on near east cape. Wind from the east at 20-30 mph. The sea looks angry. Here it comes.



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Bob and Susan
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 12:31 PM


it was cloudy this morning but now it's clear and sunny here on the bay at mulege...all out "stuff" is put away...

stress.jpg - 97kB




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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 12:43 PM


The sprinkles came and went and came and went so now I'm just waiting for them to come again. No real rain yet. Gusty winds!
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 12:59 PM


Yep, I jumped the gun. We had a sprinkle and that was all. Would it just do what it's gonna do already? Getting some solid wind gusts now.



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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 01:13 PM


Wind has really picked up here in La Paz, estimate 30/40 and higher gusts. I usually have great visibility and can clearly see Isla Espiritu Santos, maybe 20 miles away from Centenario- now huge dust cloud limits visibility to about 1/2 mile, can't see city and lower houses in my neighborhood. The SOC is out there somewhere but can't see any of it. Humidity is rolling in but no rain yet.



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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 02:00 PM


Current Wundermap with the hurricane/typhoon box checked shows Blanca down to tropical storm status. Looking very unorganized.

I think there should be an NHC update any minute.

The update is out. Officially down to TS status. And it hasnt made land yet.

[Edited on 6-7-2015 by Hook]
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 02:15 PM


TS Blanca
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 02:21 PM


http://www.eebmike.com/

Best shots so far.




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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 03:26 PM


Other than a few sprinkles here and there, no rain. Gusty on and off wind - not enough to pick anything up and toss it and certainly not enough to cause any damage. I hear electricity is out in Pescadero but we have it here in Todos Santos.
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 03:34 PM
Continued weakening; sustained winds of 70mph currently.


TROPICAL STORM BLANCA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

...BLANCA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 111.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was
located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 111.0 West. Blanca is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Blanca will approach the
southwest coast of the Baja California peninsula later today, and
move near or along the coast tonight and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Blanca is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression
by Monday afternoon or evening.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) was reported
at the Cabo San Lucas International Airport about two hours ago.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over the southern
portion of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions should
spread northward elsewhere within the warning area later today and
Monday.

RAINFALL: Blanca is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over much of Baja California Sur and the southern half
of the state of Baja California, with isolated maximum amounts of 10
inches over Baja California Sur. These rains could produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall associated
with Blanca may begin to affect portions of the southwestern United
States on Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. For
additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.



TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
300 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Blanca has weakened quickly today. The peak
SFMR-observed surface winds were 57 kt over the northeast quadrant.
On this basis, Blanca is being downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm
for this advisory. Continued weakening is likely as the system will
be moving over progressively cooler waters with fairly strong
southerly to southwesterly shear, and interacting with the terrain
of the Baja California peninsula. The official wind speed forecast
is in good agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.
Blanca should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.

The motion, 345/8 kt, is a bit slower than previous estimates.
Otherwise there is little change to the steering scenario. Blanca
or its remnant should continue to move along the western periphery
of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation. The official track
forecast is a blend of the ECMWF and medium-depth BAM tracks to
account for the expected shallowness of the cyclone, and is a little
slower than the previous NHC forecast.

Moisture associated with Blanca is expected to affect portions of
the southwestern United States in a couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.3N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 25.3N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 27.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 30.0N 113.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac




When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

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BajaNomad
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 03:42 PM




20150607-341p.jpg - 114kB




When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 04:41 PM


Hot, strong wind gusts just came in to Lopez Mateos.
The start of maybe a long night here.
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 04:49 PM






When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

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BajaNomad
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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 04:51 PM






When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 04:54 PM


I'm looking at this site I got here. https://www.windyty.com/?snow,27.455,-108.369,7
Click on Cloud,Rain then look for the small circles and click them for local cam shots and info. very cool




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[*] posted on 6-7-2015 at 05:00 PM






When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel

We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez

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