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Sharksbaja
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5814
Registered: 9-7-2004
Location: Newport, Mulege B.C.S.
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Real Estate devaluation in Baja
Seems CA homes have lost 30% of their value from the financial mess. What about Baja. Not many buyers I'm sure but does anyone have any idea how much
less homes are worth these days in Baja?
DON\'T SQUINT! Give yer eyes a break!
Try holding down [control] key and toggle the [+ and -] keys
Viva Mulege!
Nomads\' Sunsets
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Pescador
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3587
Registered: 10-17-2002
Location: Baja California Sur
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It all depends on whether or not you can find a buyer. Some have raised their prices and some are desperate and have lowered to an absurd level.
Some of the houses in California have dropped a lot more than 30% but the main problem seems to be that the available buyers in Baja have Dibbled to a
slow standstill.
I know a developer who was getting an avarage of 10 hits a day on his website and that has dropped to 1 or 2 every other month.
The Norteamericano population seems to be a little more realistic about the lowering of prices whereas the Mexicans think that things are slow so
raise the price to make more money.
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longlegsinlapaz
Super Nomad
Posts: 1685
Registered: 11-18-2005
Location: La Paz
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Sharks, none of the local real estate sites are having "Fire Sales"! I cruise through several local sites periodically & rarely is there a "price
reduced" change in any of the ads. I believe the majority of properties are listed high to leave room to consider a lower offer, which might just be
nearer to the price the seller really wanted to get anyway! But there are some
casas still on the market here which were listed 10 years ago when I was researching moving here!
That being said, remember, in this culture, it's not at all uncommon for prices to increase in a futile attempt to make up
for a drop in overall business! 
Local sales have slowed, but not come not a screeching halt.
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arbee
Junior Nomad
Posts: 49
Registered: 2-17-2007
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The real question is how many properties are selling at any price right now in Baja. Lots of for sale signs everywhere but very few buyers.
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bajaguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9247
Registered: 9-16-2003
Location: Carson City, NV/Ensenada - Baja Country Club
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Mood: must be 5 O'clock somewhere in Baja
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The Baja Country Club in Ensenada is still selling. House construction is low, but lot sales are up. People buying property to build at a later date.
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BajaDove
Nomad
Posts: 194
Registered: 11-23-2008
Location: La Paz
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Retired in Baja can't afford to lower the prices because we haven't time to make it all again.
If its not where it is, its where it isn\'t.
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BMG
Super Nomad
Posts: 1776
Registered: 6-10-2007
Location: La Paz / Bahia Asunci�n / Away from home
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I don't know how to determine what is happening to property prices. Unless someone tells you what they paid or sold for, how can you know? Some of the
property being offered is ridiculously high while others seem like a pretty good price.
Every area is going to be different though. You mention CA prices being off by 30%. Compare Modesto with Los Altos and it might be a different story.
The old story of location, location, location.
I think the world is run by C- students.
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oxxo
Banned
Posts: 2347
Registered: 5-17-2006
Location: Wherever I am, I'm there
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Mood: If I was feeling any better, I'd be twins!
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I talked to a realtor friend of mine. Sales in the Los Cabos area are way down, but prices for the most part are holding steady. Yes, you can find
the occasional fire sale but not too many. But there continue to be buyers. It is reported that there have been many more lookers recently (not
necessarily buyers) than 6 months ago. But you first need a looker before you can get a buyer. My neighbor just sold his condo after being on the
market for a year, and he is smiling ear to ear with the price he got (and so am I). It makes a very nice comp for me.
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Von
Senior Nomad
Posts: 961
Registered: 10-1-2006
Location: Poway-Rosarito
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Mood: getting ready!
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i would say baja is at least 50% depreciation, ive been trying to sell a piece of land for two yrs now and no luck dont really care anymore but what
the heck.
READY SET.....................
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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
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Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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It will take five years AFTER the California market recovers for baja norte real estate to get some traction again. Other than the peso devaluation-
there is little to attract buyers and a hundred reasons to stay away. The goose that laid the golden eggs was eaten at a narco baptism party.
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
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There was an article in the LA Times yesterday supporting BMG's notion of location. It cited a number of areas in LA, San Bernardino and Riverside
counties where median prices today were the equivalent of the price 20 years ago. Think Lancaster and most of the inland desert areas. Also on the
list was Santa Ana. That being said, I still have to wonder about how many folks who have second homes in Baja, will be able to hold on while their
primary residences NOB face the stress of being underwater at the least, and facing foreclosure at worst. I understand what many of you have said
about sellers or potential sellers in Baja holding on and holding out. But, it seems to me that logic dictates that eventually something will have to
give.
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pacside
Nomad
Posts: 316
Registered: 1-16-2006
Location: N. Cal
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajahowodd
There was an article in the LA Times yesterday supporting BMG's notion of location. It cited a number of areas in LA, San Bernardino and Riverside
counties where median prices today were the equivalent of the price 20 years ago. Think Lancaster and most of the inland desert areas. Also on the
list was Santa Ana. That being said, I still have to wonder about how many folks who have second homes in Baja, will be able to hold on while their
primary residences NOB face the stress of being underwater at the least, and facing foreclosure at worst. I understand what many of you have said
about sellers or potential sellers in Baja holding on and holding out. But, it seems to me that logic dictates that eventually something will have to
give. |
BMG is correct. I live on the peninsula in the Bay Area, CA and it is amazing how some desirable areas the prices have held steady or gone up whereas
some parts of San Jose, Modesto, Fresno have been hit BIG. It is all about location, location, location...including in Baja.
The way to get a GREAT deal in Baja right now is to be patient, don't bid against yourself, don't chase a deal and most importantly find that seller
who as mentioned by Bajahowodd above who is in dire straights and absolutely needs to sell for whatever reason. That seller will contemplate any
offer...cash is king when you are desparate.
Or if you believe everything lasvegasron, bajaron oh I mean caboron has to say than one should never ever consider buying in Mexico. My counter to
that argument is one would have done better purchasing in Baja than buying in some areas of Nevada a few years ago which now is one of the worst hit
states regarding foreclosures.
pacside
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Alan
Super Nomad
Posts: 1628
Registered: 4-6-2005
Location: Yucaipa, CA/La Paz
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I don't think there is the pressure to get out from under your house in Baja as it is in the States. I believe most of the houses down here are not
mortgaged and people own them free and clear. So unless you can find someone who is trying to dump what they own to keep their head above water back
north of the border there is little sense in taking a loss on both places.
In Memory of E-57
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Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
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Alan is a smart dude. And Sharks has once again begun a thread that is interesting and important for a lot of Nomads. What will happen to Baja time
shares/second homes/lots if and when things go further under water up north? As Mexicanos come limping back from El Norte, not able to send money
home, projects which could have supported them are stuck, stopped, busted out. Mexico's managers already see this happening and are responding best
they can with all kinds of programs to fit the dire situations as they expose themselves like small but lethal bomb.
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Fred-o
Junior Nomad
Posts: 84
Registered: 7-6-2008
Location: Punta Banda
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Another thing to consider is the "lessee" who had to move back to the "states" for any number of reasons. Health, Family, Didn't Live the Dream, etc..
Some of my friends and neighbors here in Punta Banda have done so this past year, and just left the property. It probably would not sell anyway, even
at greatly reduced prices. But, most of the land here, if not all, is on leased or rented land. So the beat goes on. If they don't maintain the
property, including the lease payments, they will get nothing. The landowner could re-posses it when the rent comes due and is unpaid.
Just a bad time to be forced, or have to leave Baja.
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Gypsy Jan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4275
Registered: 1-27-2004
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Mood: Depends on which way the wind is blowing
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Some One Once Told Me
That there is only so much oceanfront property and then there is everything else.
I don't no nothing about real estate prices, but there has been a very recent flurry of people looking at oceanfront properties (completed homes and
lots) near us.
Bargain hunting or... The owners we know are not desperate and this is not leased property.
“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow mindedness.”
—Mark Twain
\"La vida es dura, el corazon es puro, y cantamos hasta la madrugada.” (Life is hard, the heart is pure and we sing until dawn.)
—Kirsty MacColl, Mambo de la Luna
\"Alea iacta est.\"
—Julius Caesar
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Gypsy Jan
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4275
Registered: 1-27-2004
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Mood: Depends on which way the wind is blowing
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Oh, I Fogot to Mention
That the setback homes with no ocean view are getting no action.
“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow mindedness.”
—Mark Twain
\"La vida es dura, el corazon es puro, y cantamos hasta la madrugada.” (Life is hard, the heart is pure and we sing until dawn.)
—Kirsty MacColl, Mambo de la Luna
\"Alea iacta est.\"
—Julius Caesar
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LOSARIPES
Nomad
Posts: 283
Registered: 8-14-2008
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I have been contacted about my property (ocean front) a couple of times by what appears to be "opportunity buyers" telling me up-front that this is a
buyer's market and that I should expect to get lots less that what I would, 1 year ago.
There is a Mexican saying: Bien vendido o bien podrido = Well sold or well rotten.
(Must have been invented by a mercado fruit salesm@n)
Real estate wont rotten but wont sell. The pressure is there and as always, the law of supply and demand will rule...... in the mean time, real
estate agencies are hurting.
Aripes
God bless America
and Baja tambien
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Bajahowodd
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9274
Registered: 12-15-2008
Location: Disneyland Adjacent and anywhere in Baja
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Too bad there's no Mexican equivalent to zillow.com.
[Edited on 6-12-2009 by Bajahowodd]
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9011
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
Member Is Offline
Mood: Inquisitive
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This recent influx of "potential" buyers and investors looking for bargains has been greatly reduced in the last month, thanks to the very significant
rise in the 10-year note yields. Many were looking to take advantage of prices that SEEMED to be bottoming out in some areas and historically low
mortgage rates.
We might be better served asking this question in about two months, especially if mortgage rates continue which many predict they will.
Some pretty authoritative figures in real estate are now predicting that the bottom in US real estate prices might not now be reached until 2012. This
is based on the job market and the likelihood of further increases in mortgage rates which will force the bottom even lower. The decline in the dollar
is probably the biggest factor in these mortgage rates. Both China and Russia have indicated in the last week that the want to sell some of their
holding of US Treasuries in an effort to diversify in advance of the next big runup in oil prices (which has already started).
And real estate prices in Mexico will follow the downward trend.................they already have over here in Sonora. Maybe owners and RE agents are
more realistic over here. I've seen advertised prices on the same property drop by 20-50%, depending on the property. Anything that isnt correcting is
owned by people who really dont need to sell.
It's no surprise to me that lots are still selling well. Building your own is still very cost effective.
[Edited on 6-12-2009 by Hook]
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