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Whale-ista
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EL NIŅO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
This would make the Colorado river flow across the Border again to feed the fish in the sea of Cortez. And help the desert bloom. And recharge the
groundwater... Etc etc...
Come on El Niņo!
Downside: potholes the size of Grand Canyon. Catavina becomes an island...
from http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/en...
EL NIŅO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
6 March 2014
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niņo developing during the
summer or fall.
ENSO-neutral continued during February 2014, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continuing in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and
above-average SSTs increasing near the International Date Line (Fig. 1). Overall, the weekly Niņo indices were variable during the month, with most
indices remaining less than -0.5oC (Fig. 2). A significant downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave increased the oceanic heat content (Fig. 3) and produced
large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and east-central Pacific (Fig. 4). In addition, toward the end of the month, strong
low-level westerly winds re-appeared over the western equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over western Indonesia and the central equatorial
Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.
The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively unchanged from last month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSO-neutral
(Niņo-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). While all models predict
warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niņo will develop during the summer or fall.
If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niņo would become more likely. However, the lower
forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for
ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niņo
developing during the summer or fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their
funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niņo/La Niņa Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate
Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 April 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO
Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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woody with a view
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some light reading here:
http://stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml
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Bajaboy
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Aren't these the same evil scientists that are suggesting climate change is real?
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woody with a view
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it changes daily!
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elgatoloco
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajaboy
Aren't these the same evil scientists that are suggesting climate change is real? |
   
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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Osprey
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I don't understand all I know about things. BUT, if you pull up EEBMike and eyeball the Lower Pacific Temps (around these parts near the cape) it is
obvious El Niņo has shown it'self around for some time now.
1. There has been no winter in Baja Sur for 2013/2014 and it looks like it ain't coming at all. Coolest temp on my patio for that period was 54F.
2. Surface waters to 600 ft way west for thousands of miles has been and continues to be 72F.
3. The water south of that swath for thousands of miles is 76F and near the Mexican coast it is 79F.
4. It is MARCH, not JULY
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Ateo
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We shall see!!! Predictions made, now let's sit back and wait. I hope El Nino is coming.
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Osprey
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Ateo, I guess I didn't make myself clear. Nobody knows yet what the oscillations will do soon to the whole Pacific weather zone but what I see NOW at
the southern tip of the peninsula is the El Niņo conditions --- that's not a prediction for me and mine.
[Edited on 3-11-2014 by Osprey]
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Whale-ista
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The SST has been warm, but no rain. That's what's been so different about this situation. Where's the water? 
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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Osprey
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The water is right there on the surface waiting to be picked up by storms and squalls and hurricanes when ALL the conditions are right. In the 20
years I've lived in this little village without traveling I have seen several years where we did not get a drop of rain from regular weather
conditions for 370 days and we have had several years without what anyone would call winter conditions.
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rts551
Elite Nomad
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No such thing as El Nino. God makes it rain!
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Ateo
Elite Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Osprey
Ateo, I guess I didn't make myself clean. Nobody knows yet what the oscillations will do soon to the whole Pacific weather zone but what I see NOW at
the southern tip of the peninsula is the El Niņo conditions --- that's not a prediction for me and mine. |
I hear ya. I was actually referring to the report that came out a few weeks ago (or that's when I saw it) from some large group of int'l climate
scientists, that said it appeared we were in for an El Nino, or that's what their models were showing. 
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Osprey
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Thanks, "I didn't make myself CLEAN?" Sorry, had my coffee but I'm not really awake yet.
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Whale-ista
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This sounds like a joke, but if you're curious about severe storms and possible links to climate change, this is a link to a serious "civilian"
science initiative: "now, you can help run climate research models at home in your spare time!"
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/04/home-comp...
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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David K
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There is no 'normal' but for change... Nobody has been alive long enough to know what 'normal' is.
I think it is funny that just when Jerry Brown (a politician) declares a drought emergency, we next hear big wet rain is coming.
Weather cycles... some years are dry and hot and others are cool and wet. Soon after the 'Global Warming' scare was made, the world temps have been
cooling each year since! Man is not more powerful than Nature, nor can change Nature (the weather). The scam is only making a few rich (including
government) and by raising your taxes, energy costs will not change the weather!  
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Whale-ista
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Agreed. And that's the value of scientific research: the information lives on even as researchers pass away.
Weather Records from Europe are available from the 1700s. Paleoclimatologists can gather historic data from tree rings, glacier ice, seabed sediment,
pollen records and other indicators going back thousands of years. By correlating their results they can see various trends over time.
All of these long time records show climate variability very clearly. While it's true we've had other warming and cooling events this one is
proceeding on a very different time scale.
It also has a wider bandwidth. The high temperatures are higher and the cold temperatures are colder. The drought is more severe in places, and the
rainfall more extreme in others.
Storms are reaching places they normally would not. The impact on housing, roads, and other infrastructure is significant.
So while individuals only live at most one hundred years, the records they collect plus natural records are from a much longer timescale and are very
informative.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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DianaT
Select Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by David K
I think it is funny that just when Jerry Brown (a politician) declares a drought emergency, we next hear big wet rain is coming.
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One storm helps a little, but it does not end the drought conditions.
Rain totals are still way down as is the snow pack, so the emergency still exists. Brown's declaration is based on facts. 
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David K
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Not the one big rain we had just after he made the declaration (which was hilarious), but what THIS thread (read it) is saying, Diana.
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DianaT
Select Nomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by David K
Not the one big rain we had just after he made the declaration (which was hilarious), but what THIS thread (read it) is saying, Diana.
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I can assure you that the people in this part of the state are not laughing. The current drought has seriously harmed the economy of this and other
parts of the state and the emergency declaration was and is still needed.
Nice that you find it hilarious. 
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Bajaboy
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Here is a really interesting article about the drought. David, you might not choose to read it though as it contains facts:
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/03/14031...
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