| Pages:
1
2
3 |
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
And now there is "C"
Clarissa? Claude? Carmen? Forming up south of Acupulco..up to 80% already...
|
|
|
Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
Member Is Offline
|
|
Christina.
Up real early this morning. The marlin/dorado bite is on strong right in front of my house out about 2 miles.
[Edited on 6-9-2014 by Osprey]
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
Mundane....
|
|
|
Osprey
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3694
Registered: 5-23-2004
Location: Baja Ca. Sur
Member Is Offline
|
|
Mundane season doesn't start till November 2nd.
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
Oh! That's right, had it mixed with up germane...
|
|
|
DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
|
|
Cucaracha would be a pretty name:
http://www.cyclocane.com/hurricane-forecast/
"YOU CAN'T LITTER ALUMINUM"
|
|
|
willardguy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6451
Registered: 9-19-2009
Member Is Offline
|
|
beware the chicks
here's REAL science even DavidK can't dispute!
CNN) -- Apparently sexism isn't just a social problem -- if you're in the path of a hurricane, gender bias might actually kill you.
A study suggests people prepare differently for hurricanes depending on whether the storm has a male or female name.
"Feminine-named hurricanes (vs. masculine-named hurricanes) cause significantly more deaths, apparently because they lead to a lower perceived risk
and consequently less preparedness," a team of researchers wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In other words, a hurricane named "Priscilla" might not make people flee like a hurricane named "Bruno" would.
Dire forecast as climate change looms
The study analyzed death rates from U.S. hurricanes from 1950 to 2012.
It suggests that changing a severe hurricane's name from Charley to Eloise could nearly triple its death toll.
"For severe storms, where taking protective action would have the greatest potential to save lives, the masculinity-femininity of a hurricane's name
predicted its death toll," the study said.
Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which left more than 1,800 people dead, was not included in the study because it was considered a statistical outlier.
Neither was Hurricane Audrey in 1957, which killed 416 people.
The study does note that both of those very deadly hurricanes had female names.
Forecasters: Fewer storms in the Atlantic this year?
Questioning the data
But not everyone buys the team's hypothesis. Jeff Lazo of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research said the pattern is most likely a statistical
fluke, according to National Geographic.
He notes that all hurricanes had female names until 1979 -- meaning the study included 29 years without male hurricane names.
That's significant because hurricanes have generally gotten less deadly over time, Lazo told National Geographic.
"It could be that more people die in female-named hurricanes simply because more people died in hurricanes on average before they started getting male
names," Lazo said.
Study: Experiments back up the claim
But the researchers said they didn't just analyze death tolls from actual hurricanes, they also conducted a series of experiments to test their
hypothesis.
In one experiment, participants predicted the intensity of 10 hurricanes -- five with female names and five with male names. The male hurricanes were
deemed more intense -- regardless of the gender of the participant.
In another test, participants were asked to judge the risks of a hypothetical "Hurricane Alexander" and a "Hurricane Alexandra." Despite being told
both had uncertain intensity, respondents considered Hurricane Alexander to be riskier.
A third experiment tested whether participants would be more likely to evacuate due to a "Hurricane Christopher" vs. a "Hurricane Christina." As
expected, more people would flee their homes if Hurricane Christopher came barreling toward them compared to an impending Hurricane Christina.
Why name hurricanes anyway?
Giving hurricanes short, easy-to-remember names helps reduce confusion when two or more tropical storms are brewing at the same time, the National
Hurricane Center said.
For decades, all hurricanes were given female names in part because hurricanes were unpredictable, the study said, citing the "Encyclopedia of
Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones."
"This practice came to an end in the late 1970s with increasing societal awareness of sexism, and an alternating male-female naming system was
adopted," the report said.
Each year's list of hurricane names is alphabetical, alternating between male and female monikers.
If you're trying to get your name on the hurricane list, don't bother. A U.N. World Meteorlogical Organization committee has already set up six years'
worth of names. The lists repeat after each six-year cycle.
"The only time that there is a change is if a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate
for obvious reasons of sensitivity," the National Hurricane Center said.
This year's list of names include "Omar" and "Sally." It's unclear how people might prepare differently if caught in the paths of those storms.
Breaking down the climate report by region
Fast facts: Hurricane statistics
A look at the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season
CNN's Ben Brumfield contributed to this report.
|
|
|
shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13047
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
|
|
Holy Hannah...that is soooo interesting! and why I love reading Baja Nomad forums...ya learn something new every day..thanks willard!
|
|
|
vandenberg
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5118
Registered: 6-21-2005
Location: Nopolo
Member Is Offline
Mood: mellow
|
|
Willard,
May have something to do with the fact that only for the last decade storms have had male names. Before that they were all female names.
Someone must have felt slighted 
|
|
|
cocoscabana
Junior Nomad
Posts: 83
Registered: 6-24-2013
Location: Mulege and British Columbia
Member Is Offline
Mood: Que sera, sera!!!
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by willardguy
He notes that all hurricanes had female names until 1979 -- meaning the study included 29 years without male hurricane names. |
While there is good info in the article, this statement is incorrect. 1951's most dangerous storm was Hurricane Charlie...I lived through it.
Hurricane Charlie (1951) - The Full Wiki
www.thefullwiki.org/Hurricane_Charlie_(1951) Cached
Hurricane Charlie was the deadliest tropical cyclone of the 1951 Atlantic hurricane season. The third named storm, second hurricane, and second major
hurricane of the ...
|
|
|
BajaBlanca
Select Nomad
Posts: 13195
Registered: 10-28-2008
Location: La Bocana, BCS
Member Is Offline
|
|
Who could've ever guessed that a female name would be taken to mean less danger. Very interesting read.
|
|
|
bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
|
|
Quien tienes los juevos? .... La Gallina tienes!! 
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
|
|
|
DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
Member Is Offline
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaBlanca
Who could've ever guessed that a female name would be taken to mean less danger. Very interesting read. |
Like "Katrina." It almost sounds cute.
"YOU CAN'T LITTER ALUMINUM"
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
Next is "D"...Lets call it Dennis! After his Denniship...
|
|
|
durrelllrobert
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7393
Registered: 11-22-2007
Location: Punta Banda BC
Member Is Offline
Mood: thriving in Baja
|
|
| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaBlanca
Who could've ever guessed that a female name would be taken to mean less danger. Very interesting read. |
My ex-wife is a perfect example of "hell hath no fury..."
[Edited on 6-10-2014 by durrelllrobert]
Bob Durrell
|
|
|
bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
|
|
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/east-pacific/2014/trop...
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
Yup, she grew up! Real hurricane now but projected to fizzle...we shall see...
|
|
|
chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
|
|
Now a Cat3....second strongest earliest hurricane since 1971....off to a bad start for this year....
|
|
|
shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13047
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
|
|
Living on the edge of the sea, I keep a very close eye on the weather particularly the storms. One thing that all our technology does is gives us time
to prepare for the worst...we see it coming. But the down side is that we tend to trust this technology...we are lulled into believing that weather
can be predicted.
We read the diagnosis and believe it...it will fizzle out...it will head out to sea...it will not get here. Well...one of the kazillion things Juan
has taught me is not to trust a hurricane. They can and will surprise you. So this season...be prepared amigos!
I look forward to Hurricaine Dennis! geezo...be careful what you wish for eh!
Have a wonderful day all NOB or SOB...jejeje
|
|
|
Ateo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 5898
Registered: 7-18-2011
Member Is Offline
|
|
FYI, that hurricane study is already taking a ton of heat from scientists, professionals, skeptics, and critical thinkers. Once I find a link to the
online uproar I will post it. Yesterday while listening to a science podcast they went line to line thru the story, pointing out flaws and subjective
data collecting, debunking the study which basically showed no difference between male/female storms. 
They chalked it up as another "Science" story that the mainstream media runs with because it's "exciting" but has no demonstrated truth to it.
You can listen at: http://www.theskepticsguide.org episode 465. Start at minute 31. Or search in iTunes.
Bullet points:
*Take out 1953-1979 when only women's names were used. The study says they were aware of that and say that their analysis primarily focused on the
femininity vs. masculinity of the names. This gives me less confidence in the data. It's subjective.
*Post 1979, the women's name effect disappears, and they say they don't have enough data points during that period. Not enough data points in that
period? Then why publish this?
*If you remove on data point from the study (such as Katrina) it goes the other way towards male names and changes the results of the study! This
tells me there's a very tiny signal here in a ton of "noise".
*They build a subjective scale to measure the masculinity/femininity of the names, then test it on only college students for 3 of the 4 studies.
These students/people will respond differently than people living in coastal cities. Doesn't mean we should throw that out, but let's try with
"Hurricane Fluffy" vs. Hurricane Get The Hell Out" instead. Those would tease out a greater signal.
[Edited on 6-14-2014 by Ateo]
|
|
|
| Pages:
1
2
3 |
![[*]](images/xmbforum/default_icon.gif){kind=icon}
