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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
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Location: Baja New Mexico
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Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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SERGIO
Hurricane Sergio is headed out to sea according to wunderground, which only projects the next 5 days. However, windyty is showing a future U-turn
next week and the storm picking up more force, and heading right back towards Baja. Gonna be worth keeping an eye on for sure... I hope they're
wrong.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
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Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Wierd track but this model is only accurate within 100 hours.
Check back on Friday.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_height
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AKgringo
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For what it is worth, the long range forecast for the European model (ECMWF), and the NOAA (GFS), are remarkably similar this time!
https://www.windy.com/?2018-10-12-00,20.386,-96.372,4
It would be interesting to see a hurricane make almost a U-turn after a week at sea!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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woody with a view
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Fwiw, early season storms tend to head west or north west. Late season storms appear to be affected by the Coriolis Effect and bend into land.
YMMV
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bajabuddha
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As of now windyty.com has ol' Sergio headed right for Shari's by Friday the 12th. Again, hope they're wrong, but now's the time to stay alert and
keep the third eye on him. Never seen a storm do a U-ey before. Suerte to all.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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woody with a view
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Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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10 days is forever. Does’t hurt to keep an eye on it. Check back after Monday.
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
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Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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Oh for Pete's sakes.....really Sergio??? Oh well...my garden is already toast anyway...shrug.
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shari
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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this is what windy.com predicts for next week at this time...dang...
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blackwolfmt
Senior Nomad
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Location: On The Beach With A Blackwolf
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Mood: dreamin of Riden out a hurricane in Baja
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What a crazy turn I think Sergio has a mind of his own
So understand dont waste your time always searching for those wasted years
face up and make your stand and realize that your living in the golden years
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willardguy
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yo sergio........R O S A R I T O
we is DRY!
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AKgringo
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Sergio is upset because Rosa left him. He heard that she was headed toward Guerrero Negro, and is hot on her trail!
[Edited on 10-4-2018 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Bob and Susan
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predictions for next Friday don't look good...
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13048
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Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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whoa...maybe Rosa was just a dress rehearsal....rut roh
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
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Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha  | | Hurricane Sergio is headed out to sea according to wunderground, which only projects the next 5 days. However, windyty is showing a future U-turn
next week and the storm picking up more force, and heading right back towards Baja. Gonna be worth keeping an eye on for sure... I hope they're
wrong. |
Wunderground and windyty are pretty crappy for anything 3+ days out, but more reliable NWS forecasts show Sergio moisture coming up thru SOC into
AZ... however analysis shows uncertainty that many days out,...
But could be Rosa part deux.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64855
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Did you like the Jetson's?
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SFandH
Elite Nomad
Posts: 7084
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8 AM Today (Friday)
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 051448
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Sergio Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018
...SERGIO MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 121.8W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sergio was located
near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 121.8 West. Sergio is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the
west-southwest is expected Saturday followed by a turn back to the
west on Sunday. Afterward, Sergio is forecast to turn toward the
northwest and north-northwest early next week.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Sergio is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional slow weakening
is forecast during the next several days, but Sergio is expected to
remain a hurricane through the middle of next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
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AKgringo
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If you select the rain forecast on the Windy site, it looks like Bahia Asuncion could get pretty wet in just about a week! (3.78 inches)
I know, I know....a week out is a pretty iffy prediction, but it fascinates me!
https://www.windy.com/-Rain-thunder-rain?gfs,rain,2018-10-11...
[Edited on 10-6-2018 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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blackwolfmt
Senior Nomad
Posts: 802
Registered: 1-18-2014
Location: On The Beach With A Blackwolf
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Mood: dreamin of Riden out a hurricane in Baja
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I hear ya Amigo, I think the jet stream next week is going too help drag him north that's my prediction..
BTW i am in No way affiliated with the GOAT meteorological service
So understand dont waste your time always searching for those wasted years
face up and make your stand and realize that your living in the golden years
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ehall
Super Nomad
Posts: 1906
Registered: 3-29-2014
Location: Buckeye, Az
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Mood: It's 5 o'clock somewhere
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Another nothing burger? Lol
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Alm
Ultra Nomad
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Registered: 5-10-2011
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Who knows... Burgers or not, Goat is right now - it is difficult to tell much outside of 72 hours. No matter what website, it's just too early yet.
Windy shows rain and wind on some time Thursday. 2pm report by eebmike/NOAA shows yet more sharp U-turn than before, with center of the cone shifting
South of BA.
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