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micah202
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 1-19-2011
Location: vancouver,BC
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....it's good to see there's still a fair amount of westing in Polo's projected path,,but if Odie reminded us one thing,,,it's just how fickle these
storms can be,,and weather forecasting is a largepart guesswork
''On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass
well south of the southern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track forecast is relatively high''
[Edited on 9-18-2014 by micah202]
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pappy
Senior Nomad
Posts: 679
Registered: 12-10-2003
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hurricane central did a good job of explaining why odile took the path it did. the high pressure system over mainland mexico shifted to the east a bit
which shifted its perimeter from west of baja to right over it. this is the path odile followed. same set up now for polo. if the high remains where
it is, the perimeter is weell west of baja. however, if it shifts east-like with odile- then it could be trouble. hopefully it will stay where it
currently is and polo will track west of baja...
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING POLO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 105.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO TODAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK
COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING HURRICANE POLO.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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jakethedog
Junior Nomad
Posts: 25
Registered: 9-11-2014
Location: sargento/bcs
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Micah, we all need to listen to you. You really predicted that last one well. No it all***
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StuckSucks
Super Nomad
Posts: 2318
Registered: 10-17-2013
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El Jefe
Super Nomad
Posts: 1027
Registered: 10-27-2003
Location: South East Cape
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eebmike.com shows it weakening already. Downgraded to tropical storm.. Good thing.
No b-tchin\' in the Baja.
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Eli
Super Nomad
Posts: 1471
Registered: 8-26-2003
Location: L.B. Baja Sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: Some times Observing, sometimes Oblivious.
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
thanks Larry....and thank you Zola for your concern...but this aint my first rodeo. Believe me, I am fairly cautious but also know how fast arroyos
drain and road crews get cracking to open up passage...albeit a rough one. The plan is to get home by tomorrow night...but we all know how planning in
baja goes...hahaha. |
Ah Shari, Luv Ya! Have a safe journey home.
Me, I am going to continue to watch from afar. San Miguel de Allende is pretty darn cool and comfy about now. Besides, I talked with the kids today,
they got it all handled. Hopefully, things will be somewhat in order when I am due to fly home Oct. 8th.
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18130
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by pappy
hurricane central did a good job of explaining why odile took the path it did. the high pressure system over mainland mexico shifted to the east a bit
which shifted its perimeter from west of baja to right over it. this is the path odile followed. |
i was curious so looked at archives of NHC hurricane forecast:
sept 10 NHC forecasted coming ashore at cabo
sept 11 and 12 NHC forecasted it staying off shore
sept 13 NHC forecasted it hitting cabo
sept 14 it hit cabo
the many lessons learned: forecasts 2 to 4 days out may be right or may be wrong, wtf knows what mother nature will do?? forecasts 1 day out are
better. the weather does not behave according to forecast. the forecasts and warning envelope of forecast maps are based on probabilities. mother
nature does not behave as the statisticians and meteorologist say she will. do not plan a vacation in hurricane country during hurricane season
(anyhow, it's much too hot to travel in baja during hurricane season, eh?). wish for the best, prepare for the worst.
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18130
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by BajaNomad
HURRICANE POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014
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from the NHC website:
the forecast cone around forecast hurricane track is based on "two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample" and "Based on
forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of the tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time."
what you all should probably read in that: the forecast track lies within a cone. 30 or 40 percent of hurricanes will take a path that deviates
outside the cone.
what do you think about those warning cones around hurricane tracks?
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
500 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014
...POLO CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 106.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SOUTH OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 CORRECTED
800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014
... POLO FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 107.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS
SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014
...POLO SLOWLY WEAKENING...
...FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 108.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND POLO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON
SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.36 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64752
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Mercy for Baja!
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ladydi
Newbie
Posts: 10
Registered: 5-13-2009
Location: san diego,ca
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Thank Goodness!
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM POLO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014
...POLO EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 109.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. POLO REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...
AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014
...POLO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 109.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.9 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF POLO WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. POLO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
[Edited on 9-21-2014 by BajaNomad]
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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