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JZ
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Goat wants us to believe this is a new happening. When in reality they they were named a 150 years ago after one of those white colonialists he
rails about so often.
"A Kelvin wave is named after the 19th-century British physicist and mathematician Lord Kelvin (William Thomson, 1st Baron Kelvin), who first
described and worked out the underlying fluid dynamics and physics of these large-scale geophysical waves."
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mtgoat666
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Quote: Originally posted by JZ  | Goat wants us to believe this is a new happening. When in reality they they were named a 150 years ago after one of those white colonialists he
rails about so often.
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Pee wee dumb dumb,
Lord Kelvin was not a colonialist. He was a scientist. Different “ist.”
The kelvin waves we see this year are related to the extreme el nino we are seeing this year, which el nino has a larger than normal magnitude due to
ongoing climate change caused by man 
Need to send DK down to BCS get pictures of his palm trees that he uses to document sea level…
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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mtgoat666
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This shows the current kelvin waves causing a sea height anomaly of 0.5 meters in the sea of cortez. That means high tides will be 1/2 meter higher
than normal. That’s a lot!
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/science/explainers...
We will see the next king tides are oct 25-26. Need someone to photograph THE Palm Tree at HH tide on oct 25 and 26!
[Edited on 10-3-2026 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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4x4abc
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Location: La Paz, BCS
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Mood: happy - always
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| Quote: Originally posted by JDCanuck | Interesting problems with sea level rise in Chametla Harald. Is this a long term situation caused by that Kelvin wave effect that began last month or
more related to increased rainfall? I can't find anything on the web except from late Aug 33 year peaks(when they first started measuring it in 1993)
so am guessing it's a months long effect and peaks at high tide? I am assuming this is where the flood markers are located on HWY 1, or am I wrong?
[Edited on 10-3-2026 by JDCanuck] |
the current level is Kelvin Wave related
yes, the markers along the highway indicate channels filling with sea water
Harald Pietschmann
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mtgoat666
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current el nino causing really notable sst anomaly...
much of baja and socal over 5 deg C above normal. wow!
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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AKgringo
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It's looking pretty warm in the Alaskan waters as well. I don't think that will bode well for the base of the food chain for local, or migrating
creatures.
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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BooJumMan
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I love talking about the El Nino, not so much politics!
Nice graphic showing the current Nino 3.4 region temperature anomolies stacked against historical records.
Now we're still waiting for the atmospheric coupling of the northern jet. We've seen increased convection directly from the warm water in the pacific
(i.e. increased hurricanes) and also recorded via outgoing long-range radiation (OLR). Blue blobs represent more convection:
However, I'm still curious to see if that jet ends up reacting to the increased convection. On paper, it should, but the last major El Nino (2016) did
not, and California and Baja were both relatively average with regards to precipitation.
[Edited on 10-8-2026 by BajaNomad]
In that pre-Google Earth and social media epoch, The Code was adhered to. It was based on a simple verity: if a locale had been transformational for
you, and you had put the hard yards in to get there and to learn it, to know it, why in god�s name would you broadcast the news, thus ruining the
future experience not only for yourself, but for future adventurers?
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lencho
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I agree, all the political bickering on this site has really dragged it into the sewer. I can understand why Ron banned it over on
The-site-which-shall-not-be-named.
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is, by how stupid he thinks I
am."
"...they were careful of their demeanor that they not be thought to have opinions on what they heard for like most men skilled at their work they
were scornful of any least suggestion of knowing anything not learned at first hand."
Cormac McCarthy, All the Pretty Horses
"Be kind, be patient, help others." -- Isabel Allende
"My gas stove identifies as electric." Anonymous
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SFandH
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I'm learning about Kelvin waves.
The beaches around Bahia Concepcion
are flooded now. Some houses at
El Burro are now 1/2 in the bay.
The bay side road to Playa El Coyote
and the infamous palm tree
is gone. Totally underwater, judging
from a Facebook post.
The flooding may repeat throughout
the winter.
Too bad about the extra-wide graphic
causing you to scroll left/right. I've used
line returns on this message.
[Edited on 10-6-2026 by SFandH]
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David K
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The palm is not gone... Clearly seen in the video. High tide in the trees doesn't make them vanish. 100 years + of living at the high tide line
assures that palm is quite used to salty water to drink.
The video at El Coyote: https://fb.watch/K4QqeVYXHC/
[Edited on 10-6-2026 by David K]
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Tioloco
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | The palm is not gone... Clearly seen in the video. High tide in the trees doesn't make them vanish. 100 years + of living at the high tide line
assures that palm is quite used to salty water to drink.
The video at El Coyote: https://fb.watch/K4QqeVYXHC/
[Edited on 10-6-2026 by David K] |
But the panic is real, David.
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JDCanuck
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Salt water incursion into the ocean side aquifers seems to be the most common problem as oceans rise.
Good time to be building reservoirs for better, softer water supplies up in the mountains.
People building on Malecons might want to rethink their investments and move uphill a bit.
Netherlands is already adjusting and strengthening their seawalls,
so they are likely ahead of the problem.
[Edited on 10-6-2026 by JDCanuck]
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SFandH
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Of course the palm tree isn't gone. Who would think that?
I didn't say the palm tree is gone. I said:
"The bay side road to Playa El Coyote
and the infamous palm tree
is gone."
The road is gone. But, your misunderstanding is understandable.
Is this better?
"The bay side road, which leads to Playa El Coyote
and the infamous palm tree,
is gone."
[Edited on 10-6-2026 by SFandH]
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lencho
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David, you're funny! 
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is, by how stupid he thinks I
am."
"...they were careful of their demeanor that they not be thought to have opinions on what they heard for like most men skilled at their work they
were scornful of any least suggestion of knowing anything not learned at first hand."
Cormac McCarthy, All the Pretty Horses
"Be kind, be patient, help others." -- Isabel Allende
"My gas stove identifies as electric." Anonymous
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David K
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Posts: 65643
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Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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I do try!
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mtgoat666
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | Over 80 years of recorded history right here:
1936
1953
2009
2017
Based on the rate of actual rise in the high tide line, I predict this beach will still be above water for another 80 years... maybe 800 years?
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Above quote is from page 1 of this thread, a recap of the gentleman scientist’s study of historic sea levels in sea of cortez.
That didn’t age well.
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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David K
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Posts: 65643
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Location: San Diego County
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LOL... Hurricane storm surges or rare lunar tidal extremes don't count as 'normal' high tide points.
That there are no Internet photos of this happening in the past, does not mean they didn't happen.
How does El Coyote look today? Still underwater?
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BooJumMan
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Posts: 950
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Location: San Diego
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FYI If you guys are interested in "seeing" the Kelvin wave, here's a predicted versus measured tide graph for San Diego. There is consistent +1.5ft
bulge (red line).
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=941017...
In that pre-Google Earth and social media epoch, The Code was adhered to. It was based on a simple verity: if a locale had been transformational for
you, and you had put the hard yards in to get there and to learn it, to know it, why in god�s name would you broadcast the news, thus ruining the
future experience not only for yourself, but for future adventurers?
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Ateo
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BooJumMan, Thanks......been wondering if it had arrived.
Headed for a surf in a few to see if I can see anything out of the ordinary at the beach.
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SFandH
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Burning fossil fuels causes global warming.
Global warming adds strength to El Niño.
Strong El Niño increases Kelvin wave surges.
Kelvin wave surges raise sea levels and flood coastal areas.
Applying the transitive law,
Burning fossil fuels is now causing coastal flooding.
Photos of Bahia Concepcion beaches offer evidence.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/2449553992237166
[Edited on 10-8-2026 by SFandH]
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