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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
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Ok, you posted it twice and I was impressed each time, so I gotta say
DAMM! That's a TRIPPY graphic, Doug. Colors are FAROUT, Dude!
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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EnsenadaDr
Banned
Posts: 5027
Registered: 9-12-2011
Location: Baja California
Member Is Offline
Mood: Move on. It is just a chapter in the past, but don't close the book- just turn the page
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I think he did it Mulegena, because initially we didn't get what he was trying to convey, but then it hit me, he was trying to let us Ensenadenses
know without telling us (a picture paints a thousand words) that we are in for it!!
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EnsenadaDr
Banned
Posts: 5027
Registered: 9-12-2011
Location: Baja California
Member Is Offline
Mood: Move on. It is just a chapter in the past, but don't close the book- just turn the page
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I'm just waiting for Greengoes to post pictures of the cats with life preserver vests on!!
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micah202
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 1-19-2011
Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
Hola amigos...just back from a wee hurricane party and wave watching from the balcony of the Beach House...spectacular...tons of traffic and the bank
is lined with people and cars. We moved some folks from the campground over to the Inn on higher ground.
The waves breached the beach again to fill up the new lagoon to the highway and is near the horses house again too and the swell is supposed to double
tomorrow which will spell certain flooding. Buoyweather is predicting 19' waves for tomorrow afternoon. The new Pemex and stores are very very busy.
I'm not real happy that Norbert is now a Cat2 but hope the fans are working for him to go west a bit. Here is the not so encouraging latest
discussion. |
....hmm,,not much wind in Ascunsion this evening?...at least according to... http://passageweather.com/#,,showing both wave and wind animations
...Tommorrow evening's high tide is looking like it'll have significantly more wave action,,but a hopeful saving grace will be the breeze should be
rotating -offshore- around then hopefully pushing back the effect of the waves. The lesser high tide ~8am sunday might have more 'push' from the wind
though.
...wishful thinking is good,,but -any- wobble to the east and/or any delay in dissipation and you'll be wishing you had installed the window panels!
...methinks an appropriate saying might be ...''trust in god,,,but tie-up your horse''!
sorry for reposting-don't want shari to miss this note!
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micah202
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 1-19-2011
Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by EnsenadaDr
I think he did it Mulegena, because initially we didn't get what he was trying to convey, but then it hit me, he was trying to let us Ensenadenses
know without telling us (a picture paints a thousand words) that we are in for it!! |
...most of the Norbert's power will have dissipated by the time the storm gets north...you might want ''boot's and umbrella'' though,, and be warned
of a potential of lots of rain and associated hazards.
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EnsenadaDr
Banned
Posts: 5027
Registered: 9-12-2011
Location: Baja California
Member Is Offline
Mood: Move on. It is just a chapter in the past, but don't close the book- just turn the page
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Yes I better stock up on the Pepto-Bismol, too!
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13047
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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thank you for your concern but we are OK for tonight unless Norbert cranks up tonight. Here is what it was like a couple hours ago at the beach...lots
of lookey loos, then the wind came up to about 20 knots and we are out at the point now going to get some sleep to prepare for tomorrow.
I hope everyone is Ok on the gulf side and hope Mula is on high ground..huricane pyjama party time...night all...hasta manana!
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13047
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
Member Is Offline
Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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good morning all...I am surprised there are no reports this morning yet...perhaps the internet is down further south? or everyone is still
asleep...NOT! Here at the Inn refuge, we passed a relatively peaceful albeit windy night but did sleep. Here is the 2:am discussion that tells me
Norbert cranked up a bit more...silly hurricane. I look forward to the 8:00 report. the military are doing rounds and we are off to check out the
village before things get crazy here...hoping everyone is OK but am a bit worried about our southern amigos.
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014
Norbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z. Since then, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the eye becoming less
distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming asymmetric. Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115 kt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB,
while the CIMMS ADT estimates peaked at 110 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt as a compromise between these
estimates and the decay of the cloud pattern since 06Z.
The initial motion is now 315/7. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a
mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough moves into the
U.S. West Coast, which should result in a weakening of the steering currents. The track guidance has come into better agreement that Norbert should
move northeastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models showing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of the Baja
California peninsula. The new forecast track reflects this change in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward drift after 72 hours. The
new forecast track is a little to the right of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and after that it is slower than the consensus
model TVCE.
The forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea surface temperatures. The cyclone should thus weaken through the forecast period.
Despite the higher initial intensity compared to 6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should decay into a remnant low in about
3 days. The new intensity forecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36 hours, and then is similar to the previous forecast. The
new forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model.
Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and
into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days.
Please see information from your local weather office for more details.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Shari
So glad you checked in. I was surprised there were no new posts this morning.
Norbert sure got a nice eye during the night. Hope all those folks in his path are OK!
He does look much more relaxed this morning.
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KaceyJ
Nomad
Posts: 391
Registered: 10-7-2011
Location: there
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Instead of shrinking as some models indicated, Norbert increased to a cat 3 overnight and appears to have slowed down which could allow it to gather
more rain/ energy.
Still projected to go N -NE
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
Member Is Offline
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Good luck all you West Coasters. I think we dodged another one here. Wish all a happy ending to this confused Norbert.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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PlanB
Newbie
Posts: 21
Registered: 1-28-2012
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Any news on Mulege'?
Que bueno es descansar despues de no hacer nada
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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
Member Is Offline
Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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Good news is it has taken a more easterly drift, but the ensemble models just in show a sharp 'hook' westward, and it looks to be farther south than
Ensenada; San Quintin northward, better start preparing and stocking up; gonna be a big soaker. We'll see how all those new bridges on Hwy 1 hold up
in the next week.
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
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I hope mulla's ok in Lopez Mateos. I suspect that the internet is down there.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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Mula
Super Nomad
Posts: 1655
Registered: 8-16-2011
Location: San Nicolas y Lopez Mateos
Member Is Offline
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Lopez just had it's first burst of torrential downpour. Wind has calmed down, but not died all together.
Steady dusty wind all night and first rain drops started about 4:30.
Haven't been down to the waterfront.
Electricity and internet stayed on all the time here.
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
Member Is Offline
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Looks like winds to 30 mph and light rain (.2 inch) forecasted for BA today. Hopefully that is what pans out.
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Pescador
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3587
Registered: 10-17-2002
Location: Baja California Sur
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Have not seen anything from Mulege, but north in San Bruno we had a lot of rain, not a significant amount of wind, but things look pretty peaceful
this morning. I have not seen a lot of water coming down the arroyos but we will try the Chivato road later today.
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
Member Is Offline
Mood: Full Time Residents
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on the bay in mulege...lots of water...sunny now...lots of clouds...
not too much wind...but some wind
no news from town
[Edited on 9-6-2014 by Bob and Susan]
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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I didn't hear the fat lady sing yet..Looks like lotsa rain still on the path...
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Mula
Super Nomad
Posts: 1655
Registered: 8-16-2011
Location: San Nicolas y Lopez Mateos
Member Is Offline
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The bay water at the public dock in Lopez is up to within 18" of the top walkway.
Lot's of rain now but not much wind.
In the drive around town just now didn't much down or torn up.
Water is the problem now.
Hoping for the best for Asuncion today.
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