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micah202
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Location: vancouver,BC
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....the 'alternata forecast'**
....hmmm,,me's waking to a surprise,,,getting to know how tempestuous these things can be. Thankfully it sounds like the cat3 amp-up is reasonably
short lived,,and the 'fans' seem to be helping keep Norbert on course.
...in looking at the smaller influences that steer the mass around,it seems the high pressure ridge is what's steering Norbert the most,,,,so perhaps
any actions that enhance high pressure is what'll help now---perhaps open all fridges in baja,,turn on AC's will add a cooling,,densifying effect to
the pressure zone,,,keeping Norby further offshore....this will particularly reduce the opportunity for precipitation on the Cortez column...Unique to
this forecaster's memory is the small hitch westward that has developed about 1/3 way up the peninsula,,,this can only be attributed to a unique
'ascuncisharinomad' effect,,distinct to the area.Additional information from the 8am summary refers to this as
.... 'a more stable environment'...not sure if her hubby agrees(?)
...of course ,,there's a reason the pressure ridge weakens as we go towards the north--unfortunately a largely persistent release of -hot-air- over
Ensenada has caused a break-down of the pressure ridge ,leaving Ensenada largely vulnerable to Norb's effect....it's only through the efforts of the
more souther population that Norb's effect on the northerly areas will be mitigated.
...it is now safe to hang laundry in the lower portions of the southern area,,,although some 'rinse,repeat' is still to be expected.,but still
important to 'tie up your horse' further north  
The 'B.M.'** forecast.....''The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 7 knots. Norbert is forecast to be
steered by the ascuncisharinomad flow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the town of Ascunsion. In a 48 hours, the
cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and will begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then, Norbert is forecast to be
a shallow cyclone,having been dissipated by a sharp outward flow of hotair over northern baja , moving little in a weak low-level flow. There is high
confidence in the short- term track forecast since there is a good guidance agreement. Beyond 3 days, global models either forecast Norbert to
dissipate in situ near the west coast of the northern Baja California peninsula or
continue to move the system eastward as a weak low or a trough. The NHC prefers the former global model solution.''
...**disclaimer--I am not a meteorologist,,but I like to play one on the internet...call me 'baja meteorologist' 
[Edited on 9-6-2014 by micah202]
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chuckie
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Location: Kansas Prairies
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micah202
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Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Mula
The bay water at the public dock in Lopez is up to within 18" of the top walkway.
Lot's of rain now but not much wind.
In the drive around town just now didn't much down or torn up.
Water is the problem now.
Hoping for the best for Asuncion today. |
....I'd have to say that this doesn't bode well for this evening's high tide ~8pm--two feet higher than what you see now,,, the wind effects will
likely be more onshore as well!
[Edited on 9-6-2014 by micah202]
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monoloco
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Mula
The bay water at the public dock in Lopez is up to within 18" of the top walkway.
Lot's of rain now but not much wind.
In the drive around town just now didn't much down or torn up.
Water is the problem now.
Hoping for the best for Asuncion today. |
Glad all's well there.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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bajalinda
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Posts: 551
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Location: Pacific Coast, BCS
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9:45 am Sat morning. OK here's the after storm report from La Aguja for all of you north of here. We had constant heavy rain and strong wind from
2:30 pm yesterday til about 10:00pm last night when it finally started to taper off. Still windy this AM and no more rain for the moment. Now we're
in clean-up mode.
Good news is that it's pleasantly cooler this morning. Take care all you northies.
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shari
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Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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yes, here too, tonight's high tide will tell the tale. Lots of activity in town this morning, darkening skies, people putting plywood up...we are
taping windows in hopes of 30-40 knots tonight.
Good to hear from you Mula et al...sounds not too awfully bad although I'm sure the flooding in Lopez Mateos is pretty bad.
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BCSTech
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Location: Todos Santos, BCS / Placerville, CA.
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Can anyone give a road report between Loreto and San juanico? We need to head over there this weekend to install a couple of V-SAT systems and cell
phone boosters. We only have a 2-wheel drive Suburban, so reluctant to head that way without some info. Thanks!
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willyAirstream
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Mulege - heavy rain all night, no wind, town roads have the usual mud. No major flooding, at least from here on the north side. Will confirm later.
Sunny now, no wind.
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micah202
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Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by shari
yes, here too, tonight's high tide will tell the tale. Lots of activity in town this morning, darkening skies, people putting plywood up...we are
taping windows in hopes of 30-40 knots tonight.
Good to hear from you Mula et al...sounds not too awfully bad although I'm sure the flooding in Lopez Mateos is pretty bad. |
....shari,,,I really think that there's more going for the sun morning high tide than sat eve.
....the tide will be ~2' lower,,but wind will be more on-shore in the morning,,likely offshore this eve.
...be well!
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BajaNomad
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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willyAirstream
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Looks like the big ditch project was successful. No flood damage to report. The new little causeway bridge, under the main bridge, is still in place.
An old timer told me yesterday that if it rains here for morethan eight hours Mulege will flood. It was a very heavy downpour here last night and
yesterday, so it must have been raining in the mtns, so..........
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msteve1014
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Blowing really hard here now. No rain, just a big sand storm so far.
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
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Location: San Diego, CA
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.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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Bruce R Leech
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Location: Ensenada formerly Mulege
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Mood: A lot cooler than Mulege
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I am hearing story's that very bad things have happened in San Carlos. any one have any info on this?
Bruce R Leech
Ensenada
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mulegemichael
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Location: sequim,wa. and mulege
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richard/willy....thanks so much for the regular updates...please keep them coming...i skyped adan this morning and he said our casa had been evacuated
so that gives us a big WHEW!....please keep us in the loop, amigo.
dyslexia is never having to say you\'re yrros.
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BajaNomad
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bruce R Leech
I am hearing story's that very bad things have happened in San Carlos. any one have any info on this? |
BajaGringo posted the following article to Talk Baja:
http://www.bcsnoticias.mx/se-sale-el-mar-en-puerto-san-carlo...
A sea breach caused significant flooding and damage. See the report for more details (in Spanish).
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
https://www.regionalinternet.com |
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micah202
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
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Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by willyAirstream
Looks like the big ditch project was successful. No flood damage to report. The new little causeway bridge, under the main bridge, is still in place.
An old timer told me yesterday that if it rains here for morethan eight hours Mulege will flood. It was a very heavy downpour here last night and
yesterday, so it must have been raining in the mtns, so.......... |
...''here's hoping''..as they say.
....I -really- want to get a better idea of what's been done back there.....my concern(ad nauseum)....is whether there's any sort of 'hold-back's
they've made--the concern being of a rain event that's greater than the hold-back--causing a breech.
...an aerial photo 'bout now would be too much to wish for.
.
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oladulce
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Norbert Sept 6 11:00am
Punta Pequeña/ San Juanico
The wall of the outer edge of Norbert is now visible to the South. Slight wind shift towards the South now. Satellite sites show it about 60 miles off
shore but can't tell if that's from the center of the storm. Wind sock still flying and the gauge worked briefly and recorded 28mph average. Surprised
it's so close and conditions are still fairly mild. These photos were from 15 min ago and it's now white-out with slight rain.
Looking across the Bahia San Juanico across the peninsula in the direction of Mulege and Loreto (towards the Right in the photo). Alan T. we're just
now seeing Norbert effects and I would not plan to drive over here until it passes.
[Edited on 9-7-2014 by oladulce]
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Mula
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Location: San Nicolas y Lopez Mateos
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Lopez Mateos did not get any flooding so far. Just swamped streets because of no drain ditches, etc.
I just got back from a run to Constitucion. Rain most of the way - from sprinkle to downpour - nothing steady.
Bank was empty and roads deserted, too. But no problems.
I did head the Gov. who is now in San Carlos on the radio reporting all the breakwater breech damage. . . Sounds significant. But San Carlos is all
sea level.
When I got back here - I checked the public dock and the pangas are taking off to go shrimping now. Should be back in around 4.
Looks like rain off and on for the rest of the day here and really comfortable!!!!!
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Mulegena
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Registered: 11-7-2006
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| Quote: | Originally posted by chuckie
I didn't hear the fat lady sing yet..Looks like lotsa rain still on the path... |
Oh, Chuckie, you're my
friend and I loves ya' bigly, but that's no way to talk about me!! I'll sing when I'm dam well ready-- tra la la!
We're fine here in Mulege.
Electrics came back on at 11:30 this morning.
Sun is out. Highway is open.
Town streets are full of mud which is to be expected whenever we get any amount of rain here. The guys with shovels will be out on clean-up patrol
soon.
Our thoughts are with you west-coasters up north. Get prepared. Be smart. Stay safe.
[Edited on 9-6-2014 by Mulegena]
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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