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bajatrailrider
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Location: Mexico
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Quote: Originally posted by surabi  |
Good for you. Too bad there are those who seem to think it's perfectly okay to regard sensitive ecosystems as their personal playground, without a
thought about what they are running over (just because it's too small for you to see doesn't mean it's not there or unimportant), what their gas fumes
and oil leaks are doing to the environment, or how the noise of their motorized vehicles affects the wildlife. | Talk about Stupid comments Surabi your number one . We ride our
dirt bikes no leaking oil no more noise then a car . The tires we use you cant tell we where there the next day . We ride and enjoy too bad for Baja
Blow hard
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surabi
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No more noise than a car, neither of which should be driving through unpopulated natural areas. And whether or not your tire tracks can be seen has
nothing to do with the creatures you disturb and run over that are too small to see, their nesting grounds, etc.
But those are obviously not things you care about as long as you "ride and enjoy".
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pauldavidmena
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Location: Centerville, MA, USA
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Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center public advisory from 2 AM has this to say about rainfall, certainly the most closely watched component of
this storm:
RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja
California Sur and move into southeastern Baja California and
southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall potentially
persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with
maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur and far southeast Baja California through Friday.
This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain.
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David K
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Quote: Originally posted by surabi  | No more noise than a car, neither of which should be driving through unpopulated natural areas. And whether or not your tire tracks can be seen has
nothing to do with the creatures you disturb and run over that are too small to see, their nesting grounds, etc.
But those are obviously not things you care about as long as you "ride and enjoy". |
It's our planet, too!
Humans are not an alien species to this planet (at least not for the past 20,000 years).
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AKgringo
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I apologize for even mentioning off-road!
Now can we please stay on topic about the storm systems affecting Baja?
(or start a new thread?)
[Edited on 9-3-2025 by AKgringo]
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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lencho
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Thank you!
I just heard from a friend: "Acá en Los Cabos, ¡mucha agua!"
[Edited on 9-3-2025 by lencho]
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is, by how stupid he thinks I
am."
"...they were careful of their demeanor that they not be thought to have opinions on what they heard for like most men skilled at their work they
were scornful of any least suggestion of knowing anything not learned at first hand."
Cormac McCarthy, All the Pretty Horses
"Be kind, be patient, help others." -- Isabel Allende
"My gas stove identifies as electric." Anonymous

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mtgoat666
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Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025
200 PM MST Wed Sep 03 2025
Lorena could still intensify for another 6-12 hours while it remains
over warm water and in low wind shear conditions. By 18 hours, the
hurricane is expected to cross the 26C sea-surface temperature
isotherm while southwesterly wind shear also begins to significantly
increase. These conditions are expected to lead to rapid weakening
beginning by Thursday afternoon. Only minor adjustments were made
to the official intensity forecast. The official forecast is at the
high end of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then lies
closer to the middle of the guidance envelope thereafter.
The track guidance hasn't changed too much, but the TVCE, GFEX, and
other consensus models are a bit faster with the northeastward
motion beyond 36 h, and the NHC track was sped up a bit after that
time. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the NHC track
forecast. It should be noted that several models indicate a farther
left track, with dissipation over water without making landfall.
This scenario is possible if the hurricane rapidly weakens by
Thursday night and starts to decouple due to the aforementioned
increasing southwesterly shear. Regardless of which track scenario
pans out, there is very high confidence that heavy rainfall amounts
leading to significant flooding will occur in Baja California Sur,
especially since the southwesterly upper-level winds favor deep
convection to the right side of Lorena.



[Edited on 9-3-2025 by mtgoat666]
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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BajaNomad
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RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and move into southwestern Sonora by Thursday, with this rainfall
potentially persisting through Friday. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum amounts of 15 inches, are possible across portions of Baja
California Sur and southwestern Sonora through Friday. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
higher terrain. Farther northeast, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with localized totals up to 5 inches, are expected from portions of the Mexico states of
Sinaloa north and northeast into portions of Arizona and southern New Mexico through Saturday afternoon, bringing the potential for isolated to
scattered flash flooding.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/032042.s...

When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
       
Posts: 5010
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
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When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
https://www.regionalinternet.com
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting - since 1999
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AKgringo
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Windy vs the other models
Even now (Wed evening) Windy is showing the storm center staying west of Baja, then slowly falling apart. Presumably, prevailing wind shear will then
carry copious quantities of rain northeastward all the way to the mainland.
I hope that their model is correct...rain with less wind would be great.
I'm looking forward to some reports from anyone that is down there right now, particularly about potential flood damage.
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
     
Posts: 19965
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  | Even now (Wed evening) Windy is showing the storm center staying west of Baja, then slowly falling apart. Presumably, prevailing wind shear will then
carry copious quantities of rain northeastward all the way to the mainland.
I hope that their model is correct...rain with less wind would be great.
I'm looking forward to some reports from anyone that is down there right now, particularly about potential flood damage. |
Windy spits out model runs without human interpretation. You can select which model is shown. Windy is ok for predicting next 24 hours, but is
unreliable for forecasting a few days out…
NHC narrative explains that the western/offshore dissipation of the hurricane is likely only if the storm rapidly weakens after it enters cooler water
and shear tomorrow…
Woke!
Hands off!
“Por el bien de todos, primero los pobres.”
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Pronoun: the royal we
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lencho
Junior Nomad
Posts: 97
Registered: 1-16-2005
Location: Tan lejos de Dios y tan cerca de EU
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Mood: Somnoliento
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Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  | I'm looking forward to some reports from anyone that is down there right now, particularly about potential flood damage. |
Just Zoomed with a friend in SJD who said they'd gotten lots of rain all night, typical local flooding with not much wind damage.
Plus, a bunch of minor earth tremors! She said the epicenter was fairly local, around Querencia.
"I can normally tell how intelligent a man is, by how stupid he thinks I
am."
"...they were careful of their demeanor that they not be thought to have opinions on what they heard for like most men skilled at their work they
were scornful of any least suggestion of knowing anything not learned at first hand."
Cormac McCarthy, All the Pretty Horses
"Be kind, be patient, help others." -- Isabel Allende
"My gas stove identifies as electric." Anonymous

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BornFisher
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So it`s Windy vs NHC!! Stay tuned! Let`s hope a good portion of southern and central Baja gets needed hydration without the floods. Many years ago, I
had a conversation with a guy who had a place south of San Felipe. He rode out a hurricane there. He said it was terrifying. He had an empty Home
Depot bucket in his yard that overflowed! Probably about 20 years ago.
"When you catch a fish, you open the door of happiness."
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