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Author: Subject: LOOK OUT BELOW!
vandenberg
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[*] posted on 10-16-2009 at 10:28 AM


eguillermo,

Come on doooowwwwnnnn.!!!:biggrin:




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eguillermo
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[*] posted on 10-16-2009 at 02:29 PM


I hope that is not the sound of vandenberg being blown away in the rising wind . . . :o

But seriously, how long will a storm like this keep things out of sorts? La Paz weather forecasts actually show pretty low winds right up to Wednesday, after which they forecast that it will really open up and blow 30 - 40 m.p.h.

But the forecast only goes to Friday. Would you tend to expect it to fizzle out and return to normal wind patterns by Sunday, Monday? A whole week after it started blowing up?

I'm still wondering if the hurricane could render a whole week of my two-week vacation unfishable . . . . :no:
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comitan
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[*] posted on 10-16-2009 at 02:33 PM


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

This in case you do not have the data we have.

Or this"

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific

Maybe this would be more help.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/ep200920_5day....

[Edited on 10-16-2009 by comitan]

[Edited on 10-16-2009 by comitan]




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[*] posted on 10-16-2009 at 03:14 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by eguillermo
I hope that is not the sound of vandenberg being blown away in the rising wind . . . :o

But seriously, how long will a storm like this keep things out of sorts? La Paz weather forecasts actually show pretty low winds right up to Wednesday, after which they forecast that it will really open up and blow 30 - 40 m.p.h.

But the forecast only goes to Friday. Would you tend to expect it to fizzle out and return to normal wind patterns by Sunday, Monday? A whole week after it started blowing up?

I'm still wondering if the hurricane could render a whole week of my two-week vacation unfishable . . . . :no:


Not to be a smartass but, have you ever heard of Hurricane John or Tropical Storm Julio or Hurricane Jimena?

We are talking weeks or months of recovery. If you do choose to be down there during a strong storm be cautious and wise. As with those aforementioned storms, the storm tracks cannot be considered reliable so don't make plans based on those.




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toneart
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[*] posted on 10-16-2009 at 03:36 PM


After Jimena...Sept. 2, all hotels but one, Hotel Mulege, were flooded. If you are there and this one, "Rick" comes through there will be no hotel rooms available. People I have talked to who are there now have all reserved rooms for this blessed event already. If this is like Jimena, which I sincerely hope it isn't, there will be no food, water, electricity, no atms, bridges knocked out, etc. It is NOT the place to be during a hurricane or after, for that matter.

Then again, it may track west and spare us all, and we will feel foolishly very dry. :rolleyes: If I cancel my trip until Rick passes, and nothing comes of it, I will invoke the wagging index finger and looks of consternation from the memory of my late mother. I will do this>>:P and say, "See, I told you so!" "You worried for nothing!":mad:




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[*] posted on 10-16-2009 at 04:54 PM


Not at all sharks, that's the kind of smartass comments that can be helpful. I like to travel self-contained, with a kayak and tent. With my truck and open-ended time I might feel a little more secure about bad weather, but this time (for the first time) I'm renting a car and will only have two weeks.

The safer course would probably be a wait-and-see for a week . . . it sucks, but now I'm seriously considering it. The no-motel, everything-out-of-order scenario sounds quite realistic.
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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 09:19 AM


This Rick guy... He sure seems like he means business. Looking very strong right now, maybe he'll just peak early though and get pulled off into the Pacific.. I HOPE.
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toneart
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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 09:28 AM


I and my traveling companions are certainly taking Rick seriously! We are delaying our trip until it passes and we get confirmation of the conditions on the ground in Mulege. :!:



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vandenberg
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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 10:06 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by toneart
I and my traveling companions are certainly taking Rick seriously! We are delaying our trip until it passes and we get confirmation of the conditions on the ground in Mulege. :!:


Smart move Tony. Let's hope they got the predicted landfall strength right at least.

hurricane Rick 10-17.gif - 36kB




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toneart
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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 10:39 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by vandenberg
Quote:
Originally posted by toneart
I and my traveling companions are certainly taking Rick seriously! We are delaying our trip until it passes and we get confirmation of the conditions on the ground in Mulege. :!:


Smart move Tony. Let's hope they got the predicted landfall strength right at least.


Huh? "predicted landfall strength" is Cat 2 or 1. That' good? By the time it hits SOC it is still Cat 1...NOT good!

We'll see what happens. We are all weary from these hurricanes and cleanup. If this one is as predicted, coming on top of Jimena, it would probably be the coup de grace for those of us that still have badly damaged houses, but still standing.

This would put more financial strain on the Municipalities too, not to mention the hardship on the locals. Mulege is broke. Last spring, the Delegado was shut down because they couldn't pay the electricity bill. At the same time, the office that collects our property taxes couldn't, for the same reason. They are in the same building. Two months later they finally got the lights back on and then they were able to accept our tax payments.

Now they are trying to do the best they can for us, as tax payers, but there simply is no money.:(




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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 02:52 PM
OHMYGAWD!


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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 03:26 PM


Right now, it does not look good for south of here----still hoping that the UKMET computer model wins.



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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 03:34 PM


yeah, the delgado yesterday, or day before, asked that for anyone who could, please pay your taxes in advance as they are BROKE right now....so...that's kinda where we are right now...no police services, (no gas), no garbage services, ( the garbage truck is broken), and the town is barely able to pay it's electric bill...what to do?...crack another pacifico and hope for the best.....



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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 03:42 PM


Certainly the category number is imporant. But please remember that number is based on sustained wind strength. Even a tropical storm may contain immense amounts of rain. Just ask the folks in Sonora what a deluge can do couretsy of Jimena. Not to mention Mulege.
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[*] posted on 10-17-2009 at 06:42 PM


NO...i think it's important that we DO mention mulege!...this little town is flattened...no resources, no money, very few houses intact...still scratching to find itself...they are doing the best they can with what they have available



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[*] posted on 10-18-2009 at 06:53 AM


180MPH? WOW!!!! it is such a beautiful thing. too bad it brings so much destruction. hopefully the word is getting out and everyone can take refuge in time. still have a few days to prepare.

good luck folks!:saint:




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toneart
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eureka.gif posted on 10-18-2009 at 09:38 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by mulegemichael
NO...i think it's important that we DO mention mulege!...this little town is flattened...no resources, no money, very few houses intact...still scratching to find itself...they are doing the best they can with what they have available


Michael,

I think what Howard was saying, "not to mention Mulege" was an expression following the damage water can do in Sonora, meaning...Mulege too. He is saying Mulege also has suffered lots of damage from the water, as you too are pointing out. You also used the word "flattened" which alludes to the hurricane winds which really compounded Mulege's flood damage with Jimena.

I was headed down this weekend but am holding off until we see that Mulege is spared. Right now it looks like it is tracking further south (Cabo), but it could still carry a lot of water. Stock up on Pacificos, Michael, and save one for me if we are spared. Any celebration will be muted, of course, when we think of our neighbors to the south of us.

To those to the south, stay safe and prepare well. We are thinking of you.




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[*] posted on 10-18-2009 at 03:50 PM


Toneart

i agree with your assertation about the Mulege comment.... Mulege can use a break.... good luck amigos!

it seems the GFDL is creeping ever so slightly to the south. if it holds true, at least the strongest part of this storm will stay offshore until it slams the mainland.




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mulegemichael
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[*] posted on 10-18-2009 at 04:36 PM


el pacificos es frio..muchco!



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mulegemichael
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[*] posted on 10-18-2009 at 04:37 PM


oh sorry, "mucho"...y mucho mas!



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