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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
| Quote: | Originally posted by k-rico
Our HOA (in TJ) sent out an email warning, which originated with the city, about the upcoming rains. Because of all the old homesteader shacks on the
TJ hillsides, drenching rains are a big problem here. |
In that respect, there's disaster almost every year. It doesn't take much water to wash a Kotex box off a hillside. There will be lots of damage
this year, judgeing by the forecast.
Maybe the world is coming to an end.  |
Today's forecast is 5"-8". It's going to be a mess in the good areas and tragic for the TJ hillsides. Many power lines run on the ground too.
Nothing like a local natural disaster to get the collective public to switch gears from narco-fear mode to neighbor again though.
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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
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Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajaboy
As for the San Diego area, I'll believe it when I see it. We'll get some rain I'm sure but not the 4-6 inches they predict. Each storm they make
predictions only to fall way short. If we get more than an inch or so all the tv stations will have "breaking news" stories with "team coverage from
throughout the county".....that's about all I'm predicting...... |
They don't get it right often in San Diego- just not enough real weather for them to practice on. I'll be watching for those live Mission Beach
updates and their sandbagging efforts to know how bad it really is...
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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fishbuck
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Posts: 5318
Registered: 8-31-2006
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This could really foul up my bus ride to San @#$%^. Might have to wait for the next high tide.
The good thing that buses leave everyday. So when the moon and stars (and weather) are aligned... I'm gone!
Anybody know a good site for a tide chart for S.Rosalia?
"A ship in harbor is safe, but that is not what ships are built for." J. A. Shedd.
A clever person solves a problem. A wise person avoids it. – Albert Einstein
"Life's a Beach... and then you Fly!" Fishbuck
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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reef fish care about tides? i'd think being 10's of meters down it wouldn't matter ........
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Barry A.
Select Nomad
Posts: 10007
Registered: 11-30-2003
Location: Redding, Northern CA
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Mood: optimistic
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
They don't get it right often in San Diego- just not enough real weather for them to practice on. I'll be watching for those live Mission Beach
updates and their sandbagging efforts to know how bad it really is...
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My sister and brother-in-law live in South Mission Beach, and they get flooded even when a little rain---------this one could be interesting. 
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rts551
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6700
Registered: 9-5-2003
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| Quote: | Originally posted by fishbuck
This could really foul up my bus ride to San @#$%^. Might have to wait for the next high tide.
The good thing that buses leave everyday. So when the moon and stars (and weather) are aligned... I'm gone!
Anybody know a good site for a tide chart for S.Rosalia? |
Busses don't have a problem. In fact they do better than most tourists
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ELINVESTIG8R
Select Nomad
Posts: 15882
Registered: 11-20-2007
Location: Southern California
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Thanks for
the
Update
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toneart
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4901
Registered: 7-23-2006
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Mood: Skeptical
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Barry A.
| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
They don't get it right often in San Diego- just not enough real weather for them to practice on. I'll be watching for those live Mission Beach
updates and their sandbagging efforts to know how bad it really is...
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My sister and brother-in-law live in South Mission Beach, and they get flooded even when a little rain---------this one could be interesting. |
Once in awhile Mission Valley floods badly. Motels, restaurants and shopping malls get swamped. I have seen the underground parking lots under The
Mission Valley Malls turn into a river, filling the parking lots and getting into the first floors of the shops.
The Ocean Beach Pier takes quite a hit too. Hey! Surf's up! 
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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check out the baseball fields below right by taylor st from the freeway during the rains. i've seen the dugouts covered in water. the homeless shelter
known as the "riverbed" will be cleansed thouroughly and all the hypodermic needles and shopping carts will flush out at dog beach!!!
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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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| Quote: | Originally posted by toneart
| Quote: | Originally posted by Barry A.
| Quote: | Originally posted by Woooosh
They don't get it right often in San Diego- just not enough real weather for them to practice on. I'll be watching for those live Mission Beach
updates and their sandbagging efforts to know how bad it really is...
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My sister and brother-in-law live in South Mission Beach, and they get flooded even when a little rain---------this one could be interesting. |
Once in awhile Mission Valley floods badly. Motels, restaurants and shopping malls get swamped. I have seen the underground parking lots under The
Mission Valley Malls turn into a river, filling the parking lots and getting into the first floors of the shops.
The Ocean Beach Pier takes quite a hit too. Hey! Surf's up! |
That whole area, including Qualcomm stadium- is built in a flood plain. It floods regularly and they accounted for the planned flooding in the
Fashion Valley mall parking design. It just doesn't rain that hard that often to leave the land empty... You'd be surprised how many idiots try to
drive through the water there- in spite of the signs and closures.
I was checking out the San Diego marine forecast. Lot's of rain will be coming in sideways with these 3 storms driven by a 200mph jet stream. 40-60
MPH on-shore winds and huge swells. The following week has the astronomical high tides again too.
THIS ALL WEEK LONG EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST... AND 15 TO LOCALLY 25 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. EVEN THE DESERT LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT TIMES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. LARGE SWELLS FROM HUGE SURF WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BEACH EROSION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY
http://www.weather.com/weather/alerts/localalerts/92101?phen...
In LA COUNTY: " THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PROPERTY DAMAGE TO PIERS AND HOMES CLOSE TO SHORE SIMILAR TO THE WINTER OF 1997-1998."
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Severe/Bulletins.aspx?state... Angeles
I think we need to watch this one. While everyone is watching Haiti (including us), Baja could get washed off the map.
[Edited on 1-17-2010 by Woooosh]
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Mexicorn
Senior Nomad
Posts: 772
Registered: 9-15-2009
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| Quote: | Originally posted by jodiego
| Quote: | Originally posted by DENNIS
Let it rain but, keep the heavy wind. Don't have any use for it. |
Doesn't look good Dennis. The forecast is calling for 60mph winds on Thursday.....ALONG THE COAST!!!
[Edited on 1-16-2010 by jodiego] |
It will be high and dry in Sharkeys!
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roundtuit
Senior Nomad
Posts: 607
Registered: 12-21-2004
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Mood: Wife's Job
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Fishbuck, Try Baja California Tide or Sonrisa net web Page for Mulege area
Baja California Tides
[Edited on 1-17-2010 by roundtuit]
Never learned from a book-Only from mistakes, mine and yours
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baron
Junior Nomad
Posts: 76
Registered: 1-29-2008
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Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The
strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that
the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from
the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide
tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source.
The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and
strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday.
This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will
be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is
likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather
threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just
about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals
in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with
10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.
This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an
additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a
strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state.
Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and
because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen
snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation
will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient
to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure
centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there
is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph
range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed
out as the event(s) draw closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential
exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event
during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be
a rather memorable event. Stay tuned…
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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stay tuned.....
Issued by The National Weather Service
San Diego, CA
1:49 pm PST, Sat., Jan. 16, 2010
... BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK...
A SERIES OF STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS NEXT WEEK WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE FIRST STORM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY AND BRING RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY BY MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE HIGH MONDAY... AROUND 7000 FEET... SO
SNOW WILL BE RESTRICTED TO RESORT LEVELS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT STORMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND BRING MORE RAIN... HEAVY AT TIMES.
THIS ALL WEEK LONG EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GENERATE RAINFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE COAST... AND 15 TO LOCALLY 25 INCHES ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. EVEN THE DESERT LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MOSTLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET WHICH WOULD CONFINE HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SAN
BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS. AROUND 4 FEET OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE AT THE HEAVIEST LOCATIONS.
WITH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED... THERE IS HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING... ALONG WITH MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS... ESPECIALLY IN AND BELOW
RECENTLY BURNED AREAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE ROCK SLIDES ALONG MOUNTAIN HIGHWAYS... MAKING TRAVEL IMPASSABLE AT TIMES. THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE
HIGHEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE SOIL BECOMES MORE SATURATED.
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW FALL AMOUNTS EXCEPTED... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AVALANCHES FOR AREAS LOCATED BELOW THE STEEPER SLOPES OF THE HIGHER SAN
BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS.
THE STRENGTH OF THE JET STREAM DRIVING THESE STORMS IS OVER 200 MPH AND THE STORMS THEMSELVES WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY ONSHORE IN QUICK SUCCESSION.
AS A RESULT THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONG WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS GALE FORCE OR HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. OVER
LAND... DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF EACH STORM. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTS AND VALLEYS...
WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS MAY HAVE GUSTS 60 MPH OR HIGHER.
PEOPLE SHOULD STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.
[Edited on 1-17-2010 by woody in ob]
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Pompano
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8194
Registered: 11-14-2004
Location: Bay of Conception and Up North
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Mood: Optimistic
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Come on Rain!
Farming concerns in parts of California desperately need the refreshments.
Buddies around Greenfield, Salinas and San Juan Capistrano are hopeful.
As a side note, it will play hell with my Baja return via Tecate - Ensenada. I may forgo that route and opt for the roadgame of dodging sewage
through TJ.
I do what the voices in my tackle box tell me.
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Woooosh
Banned
Posts: 5240
Registered: 1-28-2007
Location: Rosarito Beach
Member Is Offline
Mood: Luminescent Waves at Rosarito Beach
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Pompano
Farming concerns in parts of California desperately need the refreshments.
Buddies around Greenfield, Salinas and San Juan Capistrano are hopeful.
As a side note, it will play hell with my Baja return via Tecate - Ensenada. I may forgo that route and opt for the roadgame of dodging sewage
through TJ. |
Get your cardboard ready. Hopefully a new thread will start once the storm actually hits to provide real time baja norte road and travel conditions.
The widened stretch of road to Playas Tijuana could be interesting (in a bad way) if water gets behind that new wall of retaining concrete they
recently sprayed on the hillside. All eastern TJ will be a mess. Blvd 2000 could well be the best and safest storm route south. We'll see...
\"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing\"
1961- JFK to Canadian parliament (Edmund Burke)
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Terry28
Senior Nomad
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Registered: 8-25-2007
Location: S.Calif mtns.
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Mood: Thirsty
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We live in Big Bear and are getting ready for several feet of snow..bummer, gotta get ready...more firewood, food and of course mas pacifico's stay
tuned.....Go Chargers!!
Mexico!! Where two can live as cheaply as one.....but it costs twice as much.....
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wessongroup
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 21152
Registered: 8-9-2009
Location: Mission Viejo
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Mood: Suicide Hot line ... please hold
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Thanks for the insight on how it works around Rosarito and TJ, down here for the winter we were kinda wondering how things drain as have not seen much
in the way of flood control and/or catchment basins
We will keep warm and dry..
About our only problem going into the storm, the refrigerator just went out.. The wife is moving frozen tamales (yeah Woody I know), burritos and
other stuff to our neighbors until we can get another one in..
Cooking up a whole lot of stuff today.. will be an interesting day or two or three on the menu around our the house.. last night; shrimp c-cktails,
streak sandwiches, and Green tamales...
But good
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Bob and Susan
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8813
Registered: 8-20-2003
Location: Mulege BCS on the BAY
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chicken pot pie here
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DENNIS
Platinum Nomad
Posts: 29510
Registered: 9-2-2006
Location: Punta Banda
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| Quote: | Originally posted by wessongroup
and Green tamales...
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When did you say your fridge went out? 
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