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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Just started raining here....light, no wind
Dark.
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Bill Collector
Nomad
Posts: 374
Registered: 1-13-2004
Location: Buena Vista, BCS
Member Is Offline
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Started raining about 6 here. Surf is picking up, high tide is 9:30
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
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Mood: Weary
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Some blackish clouds passed over Mulege.....
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Manuel just became a tropical storm!
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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We wouldnt have had any problem if people hadnt made him angry by saying he was dead....
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Tomas Tierra
Super Nomad
Posts: 1281
Registered: 3-23-2005
Location: oxnard, ca
Member Is Offline
Mood: Tengo Flojera
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Hopefully a light but steady rain maker... And that's it! Stay safe...
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Bill Collector
Nomad
Posts: 374
Registered: 1-13-2004
Location: Buena Vista, BCS
Member Is Offline
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It's raining harder right now than any of the other other storms. Very little wind, that's a positive. The sea is really getting ugly...lets hope we
keep power.
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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Let those rockbound tinacas fill!
Up on the Vizcaino peninsula, all those inches of rainfall we got have disappeared hopefully mostly into the ground. If Manuelito soaks the Cd
Constitucion area really well the grocery markets are going to see the results in a month or two. A virtual horn of plenty of veduras y frutas
regionales. The mango and orange groves of los comondu's are going to take a long, slow satisfying drink. This is the manguero in me talking.
Manuelito will not be enough, more rainfall is needed. Abejas Africanizados thrive when drought hammers at domestic bee colonies.
Plentiful rain affects a lot of the biosphere balance, than umbrella sales.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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redmesa
Senior Nomad
Posts: 580
Registered: 3-12-2008
Location: Van Isle and Bahia Asuncion
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I wonder how many inches of rain Mulege, Loreto, Cabo, etc.have actually received this year to date.
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BajaRat
Super Nomad
Posts: 1303
Registered: 3-2-2010
Location: SW Four Corners / Bahia Asuncion BCS
Member Is Offline
Mood: Ready for some salt water with my Tecate
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Time for the elusive SOC surf spots to come to life.
Hope you all stay safe. 
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
Member Is Offline
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| Quote: | Originally posted by redmesa
I wonder how many inches of rain Mulege, Loreto, Cabo, etc.have actually received this year to date. |
Here
in Pescadero, we have received 3.24" so far this summer.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
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Drive extra carefully, folks.
Down south of Loreto just last week there were waterfalls!
Really.
Truly.
Waterfalls!
I drove my little pickup through two flooding arroyos after waiting an hour or so for them to recede. If this storm brings much rain, these arroyos
will flood again. They are just north of the turnoff to Puerto Escondido. Also watch for rockslides in the mountains south of Loreto, and be aware the
highway bridge is washed out and there are road repair crews.
It's so darned green and gorgeous right now your eye will tend to wander.
Beware that the highway south of Loreto is still chewed up and will remain so for a long time. There are no written signs of warning: look carefully
for the thin placards on the side of the highway that are the only indication of areas of great concern. These placards are about 10"wide and 5 feet
tall with diagonal black and orange stripes. They may be placed before an area of road damage or you won't encounter them until you're on top of the
area. All the warning you're gonna get. Be sure to drive slowly and use your headlights at all times; flash your hazard blinkers to warn oncoming
traffic when necessary. Stay safe, travelers.
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Starting to look like the mainland is going to catch the brunt of this storm which they are saying may be a hurricane when it touches land.
Still dark here, very little rain, no wind.
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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Tiny extremely intense hurricanes can form. But they are rare. They need to be nurtured under damned near lab grade controlled conditions. I believe
mainland mountains make the odds against rise from a thousand to one to millions to one as compared to conditions in the open Atlantic.
But a tiny category V event traveling the full length of the gulf is a scary thought. A monster V coming up the west coast would be just as
frightening. My new casita has 1/8" steel shutters and door, foot thick six-sack concrete walls and roof, is built on rock and has no hillside near
and a deep and wide arroyo alongside dumping into the ocean. The patio and porch has a 3% drain grade. Same for the first 18" inside the front door.
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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DavidE
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3814
Registered: 12-1-2003
Location: Baja California México
Member Is Offline
Mood: 'At home we demand facts and get them. In Mexico one subsists on rumor and never demands anything.' Charles Flandrau,
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GOOD OL CORIOLIS AT WORK. Latest Discussion...
MANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER
FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS
THAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME
OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
A Lot To See And A Lot To Do
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BajaNomad
Super Administrator
Posts: 4994
Registered: 8-1-2002
Location: San Diego, CA
Member Is Offline
Mood: INTP-A
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AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL APPROACH THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHEN IS FORECAST AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
When I was young, I admired clever people. Now that I am old, I admire kind people.
– Rabbi Abraham Joshua Heschel
We know we must go back if we live, and we don`t know why.
– John Steinbeck, Log from the Sea of Cortez
Affordable Domain Name Registration/Management & cPanel Web Hosting:
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
Member Is Offline
Mood: Everchangin'
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in surfing parlance, this is a blue moon storm. we get this trajectory once or twice a decade and the waves are PUMPED up the gulf to places which may
only break once in a lifetime. i know a guy who used to talk about these type storms....
start the dreaming!
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DaliDali
Super Nomad
Posts: 1132
Registered: 4-21-2010
Location: BCS
Member Is Offline
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The end run
| Quote: | Originally posted by DavidE
GOOD OL CORIOLIS AT WORK.
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Mother nature will have the last say. just sayin.
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chuckie
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6082
Registered: 2-20-2012
Location: Kansas Prairies
Member Is Offline
Mood: Weary
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She always does.....
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
Member Is Offline
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Pouring here now with thunder and lightening.
Looks like it will not make it to Baja
Note 85mph winds
000
WTPZ43 KNHC 182047
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013
THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. A
RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE
PICTURES. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...
MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SINCE THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER
TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS
WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE
COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OFFSHORE. MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER
EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY.
BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COAST. RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
[Edited on 9-18-2013 by bajajudy]
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