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bajabuddha
Banned
Posts: 4024
Registered: 4-12-2013
Location: Baja New Mexico
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Mood: Always cranky unless medicated
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This El Niño is not only pushing all records, but is predicted to go at least another year, and probably two (sorry, lost the links to back it up).
The blessed part is, the warm Pacific currents that make an El Niño are pointed right at Sandy Eggo. This means the warmer than usual ocean waters
will reach from Tortuga northward, and maybe the larger tropical storm trough will carry farther than mid-peninsula. Lordy knows SoCal needs some
moisture. I Googled, and the last 'hurricane' to hit Sandy Eggo was in ..... 1884? 89? Anyway, they're due. No climate change here, happens every
150 years or so.
Here in Baja, New Mexico (southern, not the 'town' for those who google) it's been cooler than normal, and monsoonal moisture has been a little
farther north than usual..... except for the mountains to the west of the State....... so far. This is what I love about an El Niño: ALL BETS ARE
OFF. All 'normal' weather patterns are upset, nad the apple cart is ka-tilt. This El Niño is predicted to be a multi-year event. "Mama Natura, Cada
Loco Con Sú Tema !!! "
I don't have a BUCKET LIST, but I do have a F***- IT LIST a mile long!
86 - 45*
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Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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Two years?
Let's hope these El Niño style weather patterns don't become the new normal.
Extreme drought countered by extreme rain puts a lot of stress on human infrastructure as well as ecosystems.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Member Is Offline
Mood: Happy!
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Quote: Originally posted by bajabuddha  | This El Niño is not only pushing all records, but is predicted to go at least another year, and probably two (sorry, lost the links to back it up).
The blessed part is, the warm Pacific currents that make an El Niño are pointed right at Sandy Eggo. This means the warmer than usual ocean waters
will reach from Tortuga northward, and maybe the larger tropical storm trough will carry farther than mid-peninsula. Lordy knows SoCal needs some
moisture. I Googled, and the last 'hurricane' to hit Sandy Eggo was in ..... 1884? 89? Anyway, they're due. No climate change here, happens every
150 years or so.
Here in Baja, New Mexico (southern, not the 'town' for those who google) it's been cooler than normal, and monsoonal moisture has been a little
farther north than usual..... except for the mountains to the west of the State....... so far. This is what I love about an El Niño: ALL BETS ARE
OFF. All 'normal' weather patterns are upset, nad the apple cart is ka-tilt. This El Niño is predicted to be a multi-year event. "Mama Natura, Cada
Loco Con Sú Tema !!! " |
Last hurricane to hit SoCal I think was 1939---was a tropical storm by the time it reached land somewhere around Newport/Long Beach. Schools in South
Pasadena had been cancelled because of the extreme heat ahead of the storm and my mom's family went down to Laguna...they were watching the big surf
from the driving winds and saw the pier at Victor Hugo's get washed away. Those years of 1938-39 were classic El Nino and there was a lot of flooding
in the Santa Ana River basin (before Del Prado Dam was built to mitigate flooding).
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64749
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Thanks Mexitron... great local history!
Growing up on the beach in Del Mar (San Diego County), I remember a series of water spouts we watched, and caused us to evacuate... some came ashore
by Newport Beach or nearby?? and did damage as tornadoes. I will see if I can find the year, but 1962-64 may be the range?
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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Mood: Happy!
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I remember some roofs being torn off a couple houses in North Laguna, but more like the late 60s...might have been that wild 1969 winter where it
rained for 6 straight weeks...Topanga, Silverado, Laguna, Tujunga Canyons and others got scoured.
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64749
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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| Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron | | I remember some roofs being torn off a couple houses in North Laguna, but more like the late 60s...might have been that wild 1969 winter where it
rained for 6 straight weeks...Topanga, Silverado, Laguna, Tujunga Canyons and others got scoured. |
Yes, I remember when it snowed in San Diego, even the coast, in 1967.. wild weather is nothing new, but people's memories are just too short... or
they are too young to remember!
The damage we saw from the waterspouts/tornadoes was from along Hwy. 1 in Orange County. I also remember driving by a military storage yard full of
mines (big balls with the projections all around). Early 60's for sure.
I tried looking at a few pages on Google, but I found nothing that old about water spouts off Del Mar/ San Diego... just newer stories.
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StuckSucks
Super Nomad
Posts: 2318
Registered: 10-17-2013
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Over Memorial Day, we camped at the Alabama Hills and got snow on Saturday night:
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Mexitron
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3397
Registered: 9-21-2003
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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Mood: Happy!
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Wow, nice pics!
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | | Quote: Originally posted by Mexitron | | I remember some roofs being torn off a couple houses in North Laguna, but more like the late 60s...might have been that wild 1969 winter where it
rained for 6 straight weeks...Topanga, Silverado, Laguna, Tujunga Canyons and others got scoured. |
Yes, I remember when it snowed in San Diego, even the coast, in 1967.. wild weather is nothing new, but people's memories are just too short... or
they are too young to remember!
The damage we saw from the waterspouts/tornadoes was from along Hwy. 1 in Orange County. I also remember driving by a military storage yard full of
mines (big balls with the projections all around). Early 60's for sure.
I tried looking at a few pages on Google, but I found nothing that old about water spouts off Del Mar/ San Diego... just newer stories.
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Would you say the weather is getting more predictable or less predictable
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64749
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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Weather... ? Well, that changes day to day... or stays the same all week... no mater what the prediction was. The forcast is usually 50/50 if they
predict rain.
We had more rain in the month of May this year than in the past 50 in that month (it seems). Just wait until this winter (based on the super El Niño
"prediction") for the draught-cancelling rain!
Why the concern about predictions? We don't know the future, but we sure can see the past... and it is even better if they don't flip the graphs
around!
Check Nomad posts in early 2010... just 5 1/2 years ago... floods, washed out bridges along Highway 1 (Mexico)... the bog going to Mission Santa Maria
was 2-3 feet deep. Cameron's Rip to the Tip video this year showed it was damp or dry... no standing water.
Weather cahanges and cycles over just a short span of time. Climate does too, but only over 100's to 1,000's of years... Nothing you can witness in a
single lifetime... all natural and normal.
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | Weather... ? Well, that changes day to day... or stays the same all week... no mater what the prediction was. The forcast is usually 50/50 if they
predict rain.
We had more rain in the month of May this year than in the past 50 in that month (it seems). Just wait until this winter (based on the super El Niño
"prediction") for the draught-cancelling rain!
Why the concern about predictions? We don't know the future, but we sure can see the past... and it is even better if they don't flip the graphs
around!
Check Nomad posts in early 2010... just 5 1/2 years ago... floods, washed out bridges along Highway 1 (Mexico)... the bog going to Mission Santa Maria
was 2-3 feet deep. Cameron's Rip to the Tip video this year showed it was damp or dry... no standing water.
Weather cahanges and cycles over just a short span of time. Climate does too, but only over 100's to 1,000's of years... Nothing you can witness in a
single lifetime... all natural and normal. |
Here is my answer which is much less convoluted than yours: Less predictable. Did you even answer the question?
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64749
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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I did answer you Zack.. you asked my opinion if the weather was more or less predictable, and I told you I thought it was 50/50... then explained why
I had that answer...
Did you even read my answer?
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Bajaboy
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4375
Registered: 10-9-2003
Location: Bahia Asuncion, BCS, Mexico
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| Quote: Originally posted by David K | I did answer you Zack.. you asked my opinion if the weather was more or less predictable, and I told you I thought it was 50/50... then explained why
I had that answer...
Did you even read my answer?
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I read it a few times.....
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David K
Honored Nomad
Posts: 64749
Registered: 8-30-2002
Location: San Diego County
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Mood: Have Baja Fever
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So you think predictions (guesses, often wrong) are more valuable than recorded climate history?
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Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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Erratic weather extremes vs un/predictability
Bajaboy- rather than wondering if weather is getting more or less "predictable" many people are wondering if weather is getting more erratic and/or
extreme.
Recent local examples include highest recorded sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific, yet snow in the Sierras in July. Those are pretty
radical extremes for the summer months.
Those extreme variations over short periods of time are what create concern. They add to the unpredictability of forecasting, and also indicate some
elements of climate change that have been studied and recorded by researchers.
Here's a discussion of this observation:
"Just this week, a new article appeared in the journal Nature that provides more evidence of a connection between extreme weather and global warming.
This falls on the heels of last week’s article which made a similar connection. So, what is new with the second paper? A lot.
"Extreme weather can be exacerbated by global warming either because the currents of atmosphere and oceans change, or it can be exacerbated through
thermodynamics (the interaction of heat, energy, moisture, etc.). Last week’s study dealt with just the thermodynamics. This week’s study presents a
method to deal with both.
"The authors, Daniel Horton, Noah Diffenbaugh and colleagues used a new technique to tease apart the complex influences of warming on changes to
atmospheric circulation. Dr. Horton told me,
"Our study focuses on the need to understand the underlying physical causes of extreme weather events, and to systematically test whether the
probability of those underlying conditions has changed in recent decades. Events that are so extreme that they fall outside of our historical
experience often result from a suite of complex interacting factors. To better understand these factors we’ve developed a method that allows us to
partition the climate influences."
For the complete report go to https://www.skepticalscience.com/more-evidence-gw-intensifyi...
Hope this is helpful.
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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dtbushpilot
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3288
Registered: 1-11-2007
Location: Buena Vista BCS
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Don't take the bait David....
"Life is tough".....It's even tougher if you're stupid.....
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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all the feel-gooders in the world can't change the fact that it may be getting warmer! turn off your computer, unplug from the grid, stop driving your
cars AND THEN we can talk about it.
since no one is willing to do that...... carry on!
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Whale-ista
Super Nomad
Posts: 2009
Registered: 2-18-2013
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Sunny with chance of whales
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Just a reminder, the subject of this post is: "Weird weather: snow in sierras, hurricanes in Baja... add: volcano eruption"
Extremes are part of the mix, and some researchers think we are seeing more extremes.
Warmer ocean temperatures mean more volatile hurricanes, traveling more northward.
As I said in my first post: I think we're in for a weird year...
\"Probably the airplanes will bring week-enders from Los Angeles before long, and the beautiful poor bedraggled old town will bloom with a
Floridian ugliness.\" (John Steinbeck, 1940, discussing the future of La Paz, BCS, Mexico)
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woody with a view
PITA Nomad
Posts: 15939
Registered: 11-8-2004
Location: Looking at the Coronado Islands
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Mood: Everchangin'
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someone once said, "keep on the straight and narrow".
you aren't living if you aren't into extremes! bring it on! surf will be pumping end of this weekend. gonna go get some!
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18125
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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Well, a prediction of what will happen tomorrow is more useful to me than the history of what happenned yesterday!
Lets make some predictions based on history! . I predict Hillary will be next president, the San Andreas will let loose in next decade or so and wipe
out a lot, a subduction quake off Washington state will destroy western Washington sometime in next 20 years or so, and we are all climatically
flocked because we can't put the collective we before or own self interests!
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