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Author: Subject: Baja, Covid 19, Koch's Postulate, germ theory, and the math
pacificobob
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[*] posted on 8-16-2020 at 07:13 AM


Quote: Originally posted by gnukid  
Quote: Originally posted by AKgringo  
Gnukid, it was not my intent to pile on you. I think most of us are tired of both of you taking every thread into the realm of endless debate. That is not what I come to this forum for!


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allow me to speak for myself...con tu permiso...im bored to f-ing tears with your rants. give it a rest.......please!




[Edited on 8-16-2020 by BajaNomad]
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caj13
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[*] posted on 8-16-2020 at 02:12 PM


Quote: Originally posted by lencho  
Quote: Originally posted by caj13  
Quick rebuttals on gnueys supposed understanding...
Good lord, why? :O


Because I believe someone spouting false information that , if followed is dangerous to a persons health is an unconscionable act!

and i believe in accountability. If you look back, I really don't start these skirmishes, but I cannot in good conscience allow some incompetent wing ding with dangerous spoutings to go unchallenged.
I shine the light of truth on Gnuey - and he doesnt like it!
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gnukid
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[*] posted on 8-16-2020 at 09:06 PM




Flattening the Economy "Because Virus
https://mises.org/power-market/flattening-economy-because-vi...

Oxford: Suppression Strategy Not Viable
https://unherd.com/thepost/oxford-epidemiologists-suppressio...

Lockdown by state
https://www.thedailybeast.com/this-is-what-a-coronavirus-cov...

Sunlight kills COVID
https://www.ksat.com/news/national/2020/08/14/dr-anthony-fau...

Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6500/eabb9789

U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-childr...

The Paranoid Style in Covid-19 America
https://www.manhattan-institute.org/paranoid-style-covid-19-...

The danger of safetyism
https://unherd.com/2020/05/the-hypocrisy-of-safetyism/

Does Social Distancing work to stop covid deaths?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1261705308302270466.html

The Moral Case Against Mask Mandates And Other COVID Restrictions
https://thefederalist.com/2020/07/31/the-moral-case-against-...

[Edited on 8-17-2020 by gnukid]
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bajaric
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 12:41 PM


Just when you never, ever wanted to see another post about covid,
here is another one!
So, I did a little fact checking.
Math was never my best subject, but I do like to run a few numbers
now and then. So I compared the national statistics to numbers reported in San Diego County.
US: total cases 5,401,00, population 320,000,000
for a case rate of one out of sixty people
SD County total cases 34,960 population 3,338,000
for a case rate of one out of 95 people
The deaths from above cases were about 3 percent of those infected.
Of course, many of the deaths were in nursing homes, or among kidney failure patients etc. who had one foot in the grave and one foot on a banana peel, as someone pointed out.
Nonetheless, a not insignificant number of deaths.
Seems to me that wearing of masks could bring this to a better result
And yet, many see that as an infringement on their freedom.
I suppose there is a semi valid argument there, with regards to over grasping government infringing on individual rights. I mean, telling people to stay home for three months, closing down restaurants, that is not some insignificant measure.
On the other hand, in this country there are many who think the earth is flat, or who think allowing mentally ill teenagers to purchase semi automatic assault rifles is guaranteed by the constitution.
An so it goes.
I do feel that "emergency measures" do tend to reduce freedom. Remember killer bees? Remember West Nile Virus? These were an excuse to raise property taxes, and after the threat disappeared the entrenched government lived on!
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MrBillM
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 02:37 PM
No Worries Now


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gnukid
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 02:38 PM


Do the math

CDC today https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case...

Accepting this dataset, even though excess errors are acknowledged:

USA
Pop 320,000,000
Cases 5,422,242
Deaths 169,870

%99.95 survival rate
%0.05 death rate

Similar rate to previous years influenza death rate, nothing out of the ordinary to justify altering human mobility behavior with lockdown, isolation, face masks, hand sanitizer, social distancing.
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John Harper
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 06:21 PM


Quote: Originally posted by gnukid  


Do the math:

Cases 5,422,242
Deaths 169,870



169,870/5,422,242 = 0.0313

3.13% death rate by my calculations.

Of course, as an "Old Timer", I had to use long division, a quill pen on parchment, and a whale oil lamp. But, I believe the numbers are correct. Math does not lie, you clearly do. And, as usual, embarrass yourself in front of everyone.

Congratulations, Tool.

John

[Edited on 8-19-2020 by John Harper]
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SFandH
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 06:28 PM


gnu math.



Want to adopt a mellow Baja dog or cat? - https://www.facebook.com/bajaanimalsanctuary/
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mtgoat666
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 07:32 PM


Quote: Originally posted by gnukid  
Do the math

CDC today https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/case...

Accepting this dataset, even though excess errors are acknowledged:

USA
Pop 320,000,000
Cases 5,422,242
Deaths 169,870

%99.95 survival rate
%0.05 death rate

Similar rate to previous years influenza death rate, nothing out of the ordinary to justify altering human mobility behavior with lockdown, isolation, face masks, hand sanitizer, social distancing.


Pablo,
Math ain’t your strong point.
From your numbers 3% of infected die. 3 out of 100 infected will die. 97% survival rate for the infected. 1.6% infection rate for the total population, and the pandemic continues. Your turn is coming...
Paul, You are in your mid-fifties. For COVID-19 infected, People In their fifties have a death rate 30x higher than 18 to 29 year olds.
The hospitals in Baja are at capacity, don’t get covid-19 pneumonia, there is no room to admit you for hospital care!




Woke!

“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”

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gnukid
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 09:34 PM


Use total pop, not selected cases with faulty RT PCR false positives, we're tracking total USA pop, total USA deaths with COVID, (while still without verification of cause of death), do not use an uncertain number such as cases which tell you nothing.

We have been through this from day one students. It is clear that counting of positives cases is not a number with any certainty nor does it tell you anything about the total pop nor target demographic "risk" of death. Though I see Morbid Fantom Obessed Nomad Geriatrics love to pump up the risk of death numbers, why? Now its clear why you are so confused, ol timer.


CDC USA Today
Total USA Pop 320,000,000
Total USA CV Deaths 169,870

The strategy by these convoluted rabid morbid obsessed, math challenged seniors is to "muddy the waters", promote fear, create confusion, using both faulty logic, and caustic angry attacks, to discourage dialogue. Hmm I wonder why they sound so desperate to promote a pandemic that just doesn't exist even under exaggerated unverified dataset. According to CDC zero actual excess deaths are verified from COVID today, all we have are suspected provisional which is admittedly error prone and Deborah Birx has no confidence in the reported numbers? HHS and CDC have no confidence in those case numbers reported. So why do these rabid, barking, morbid obsessed Nomad posters dog pile on with nonsense and anger to this little forum with such a small audience? Ignorance? Boredom? Agenda? Intentional Obfuscation?




[Edited on 8-19-2020 by gnukid]
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gnukid
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[*] posted on 8-18-2020 at 10:21 PM




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bajaric
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 11:30 AM


169,000 deaths out of a population of 320 million is indeed .05 percent, as Gnu pointed out.

This is the Gnu reality.
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John Harper
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 11:37 AM


The probability of those 320 million dying of something is 100%.

John
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TedZark
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 12:01 PM


Deaths as percentage of the population means nothing until the whole course of the disease is run. You are simply picking a point in time. That curve may well be very different six months from now, even two weeks from now.

I'm not advocating anything, just that throwing incomplete numbers around means nothing. Anyone can pick a point on any curve and make false assumptions (not intentionally false, just a poor understanding of statistics and probability) about what it means. And what it means in that case, is simply determined by what point on the curve you chose to interpret.


Basically reading tea leaves.
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mtgoat666
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 12:43 PM


Quote: Originally posted by gnukid  

The strategy by these convoluted rabid morbid obsessed, math challenged seniors is to "muddy the waters", promote fear, create confusion, using both faulty logic, and caustic angry attacks, to discourage dialogue.


Pablo,
Math challenged? Sounds like you!
Faulty logic? Ditto!
Seniors? Be careful slinging mud, you are much closer to senior than junior, you bald, old fart! You are mid-fifties, and are losing your hair. Sorry to burst your bubble, Paul, but you are a senior :lol: Chasing young tail doesn’t make you young, just makes you creepy!




Woke!

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gnukid
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 02:12 PM


This isn't personal. Time to question the end game?

Some Nomads use faulty logic, caustic, angry, acerbic language, to attack discussion of CV to discourage learning about cellular toxicity, exosomes, illness, human health. Cell theory vs germ theory?

Point is, even if you accept the CDC's admitted, exaggerated, error prone case and death numbers as a worst case scenario, the total number of CV deaths in the USA are equal to typical year to year influenza respiratory illness deaths, or about ~%.05 death rate versus ~%99.95 survival rate.

CDC USA average age of death with CV is 84 years old, average age of death without CV is 78.6 years old? But what about cofactors of pre-morbidity?

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-...

The CV death guidelines are simplified, any death where CV is "suspected" is a conflated provisional suspected death WITH CV.

The CDC USA overall macro death rate is similar year to year, actually many weeks are negative, though the excess death rate guidelines state negative weeks are zeroed, meaning no negative numbers are allowed into averages, artificially inflating the death rate. Use Search to look it up on CDC site.

CDC Actual Excess Death Rates By Cause won't be available until the deaths are properly categorized, perhaps in a year.

Today, no deaths from CV have been verified by cause, the death numbers are simplified "suspected provisional".

Today, according to CDC, Official Actual Excess Death Rates FROM CV Is Zero.

Big picture, no increase in excess deaths. Zero Actual Excess Deaths FROM CV.

No New Pandemic verified or New Virus isolated as a cause of illness.

Long history of Faulty track record of leadership and conflict of interest by Fauci and Biopharma using RT PCR to identify and diagnose viral illness to market and sell drugs.

Never has a RNA vaccine been successful. It is quite risky to splice RNA and has no guarantee to work, many millions will die according to Gates.

No justification for Restricting Mobility, Isolation, Face Masks, Hand Sanitizer, Social Distancing.

Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve theory morphed into 6 months to delay the supposed inevitable? Infinite fear of virus is illogical?

If you accept there is a unique external new virus, you engage once, and either have sufficient immunity, or develop immunity, or die. Three states exist, pre-infection, infection, recovered. Each helps improve immunity in the other by social contact.

Isolation reduces health and immunity, isolation is the leading cause of mental and physical illness.

Each week, Fauci, CDC and WHO make conflicting statements, never stating Common Sense Health Basics, nutrition, 90 essential vitamins, minerals, and amino acids, exercise, fresh air, sunshine are the core of human health.

At no point has a new unique Corona virus been isolated and shown as a cause of specific illness. Simply put, mucos was tested and shown to contain RNA, that's it.

Exosomes appear exactly the same as the images shared identified as CV? Meaning cell toxicity, agitation and stress are expressed in a manner identified as CV?

Many assumptions without evidence, conflicts of interests, errors, failures.





[Edited on 8-20-2020 by gnukid]
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Lee
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 02:34 PM


Quote: Originally posted by gnukid  
This isn't personal. Time to question the end game?

Today, according to CDC, Official Actual Excess Death Rates FROM CV Is Zero.

Big picture, no increase in excess deaths. Zero Actual Excess Deaths FROM CV.

No New Pandemic verified or New Virus isolated as a cause of illness.

Long history of Faulty track record of leadership and conflict of interest by Fauci and Biopharma using RT PCR to identify and diagnose viral illness to market and sell drugs.

[Edited on 8-20-2020 by gnukid]


You're repeating yourself, Paul. Take a break. There's 2 sides to the virus. Many believe it's a problem, some don't.

Personally, I believe there's a problem. I wear a mask where it's required, and I distance myself from people. Until there's a vaccine, and things calm down, I'm taking precautions.

Looks like you and JZ think the hoopla is hooey. Fine with me. I don't care what people do.

Trying to persuade nomads that you are right and have the facts has serious consequences if you are wrong, and these people get sick and die. Don't think you want some responsibility for that.




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F*ck it.
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gnukid
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 02:51 PM


Lee, Don't project your convoluted thoughts onto me, I can speak for myself. Try to speak for yourself formulate your own ideas, support it with specific points, and sources.

You are among the Nomad posters who attack thoughtful discourse while failing to make a logical point to the degree that few will attempt to do so here, while I receive many private messages engaging me and thanking me for sharing.

Stress, toxicity and general poor health are expressed as illness, often accompanied by poor mental capabilities.

Seniors, especially, must ensure they are getting adequate nutrition, exercise, fresh air, sunshine and social engagement for overall health or you will certainly die an early death.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjYvitCeMPc&feature=emb_...

[Edited on 8-20-2020 by gnukid]
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Lee
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 04:15 PM


You are undoubtedly intelligent, Paul, and I have nothing to add to posts regarding the virus. Early on I had some comments. That was about 4 months ago. Besides, my thoughts about what's happening with the virus are not thought out as there's nothing to conclude. I think about what I see around me.

So the question is why do you keep repeating yourself? I come away thinking you're a common conspiracist. And it doesn't matter why. Thousands are dying everyday and you post your facts showing no one is dying?

Just plain foolish. For the record, I don't read your comments relating to the virus. I think you are wrong and don't know what you're writing.

Thoughtful discourse? Think what you want about the virus and let others decide this life/death issue themselves. Snake oil is not a cure.




US Marines: providing enemies of America an opportunity to die for their country since 1775.

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F*ck it.
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[*] posted on 8-20-2020 at 04:18 PM


Quote: Originally posted by Lee  
You are undoubtedly intelligent, Paul, and I have nothing to add to posts regarding the virus. Early on I had some comments. That was about 4 months ago. Besides, my thoughts about what's happening with the virus are not thought out as there's nothing to conclude. I think about what I see around me.

So the question is why do you keep repeating yourself? I come away thinking you're a common conspiracist. And it doesn't matter why. Thousands are dying everyday and you post your facts showing no one is dying?

Just plain foolish. For the record, I don't read your comments relating to the virus. I think you are wrong and don't know what you're writing.

Thoughtful discourse? Think what you want about the virus and let others decide this life/death issue themselves. Snake oil is not a cure.


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