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Lobsterman
Super Nomad
Posts: 1696
Registered: 10-7-2008
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Thanks Gnukid for having the balls to express your views on a subject that is counter to the views of BN "resident experts" on everything. Why these
individuals have to disrespect ones opinion, call one nasty names and offer unsubstantiated lies about ones profession or person only shows their
close-mindedness and lack of moral integrity. Joe taught them well how to communicate on this site as a bully and get away with it.
Hopefully, someday these site members will accept another's opinion as just that an opinion based on ones knowledge and life experiences without being
called names and trolled. Until that happens this site will continue to be a bully's platform to express their one-sided view of an argument thus
keeping one with an opposing opinion from expressing it.
Thanks again Gnukid for your knowledge of the subject and offering it here.
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18438
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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In the near future, sales of IC-engine vehicles will begin declining, and as auto makers experience declining sales, the auto makers will stop
developing new IC engine vehicles, new model updates each year.
Some of you have in past been excited seeing new models coming out each year,... within the decade, expect to see companies like Ford stop R& for IC engines.
Ford won’t be spending time and $$developing new F-150 model years if F-150 IC engine sales growth is negative year over year.
Any vehicle with declining sales gets canceled after a few years of continuous declining sales.
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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PaulW
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3078
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How true - ICs are doomed. Companies doing the conversion first will win the business. Its is all about timing and money.
I see the transition happening now. First they go to light duty hybrids then to plug in hybrids then to full EVs.
It appears that GM is ahead of others and Ford may not survive due to very slow implementation and continued development of their ICs. The import
brands are even slower. Some are ignoring the change, of course with exceptions that are already selling full EVs although in low volume and high
prices.
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gnukid
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 4411
Registered: 7-2-2006
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Problems with electric cars
Electric cars will fail
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1114758_electric-cars-w...
Electric vehicles as an example of a market failure
https://phys.org/news/2019-03-electric-vehicles-failure.html
Why Electric Cars Will Fail...and Have Already Triumphed
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/why-electr...
Tesla's 2020 Profit Didn't Come From Selling Cars, But Regulatory Credits
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-s-2020-profit-didn-...
Morgan Stanley is wrong — electric cars aren’t going to take over
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-morgan-stanley-wrong-abo...
The Clock Is Ticking On Electric Car Batteries - And How Long They Will Last
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billroberson/2019/09/30/the-clo...
Electric cars and plug-in hybrids are a fail
https://www.zdnet.com/article/electric-cars-and-plug-in-hybr...
AAA confirms what Tesla, BMW, Nissan electric car owners suspected — cold weather saps EV range. Even turning on the car drains power
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/aaa-confirms-what-tesla-bmw-...
Extreme weather is sucking the life from your electric car
https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/10/18217041/electric-car-ev-...
Why do electric cars suck in cold weather?
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/173256-why-do-electric-c...
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AKgringo
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6035
Registered: 9-20-2014
Location: Anchorage, AK (no mas!)
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Mood: Retireded
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I just heard part of a parody song based on Janis Joplin's prayer..........Oh Lord, won't you buy me, a cyber truck. My friends all drive diesels,
and I must make amends!
If you are not living on the edge, you are taking up too much space!
"Could do better if he tried!" Report card comments from most of my grade school teachers. Sadly, still true!
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Hook
Elite Nomad
Posts: 9010
Registered: 3-13-2004
Location: Sonora
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Mood: Inquisitive
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WTF does this have to do with Baja..........or Mexico?
The Goat channeling JJJ.  Political agenda is their life. Sad.
[Edited on 2-4-2021 by Hook]
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Skipjack Joe
Elite Nomad
Posts: 8084
Registered: 7-12-2004
Location: Bahia Asuncion
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Found this online which I thought fit this thread:
[Edited on 2-4-2021 by Skipjack Joe]
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18438
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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Nice thing about e-vehicles like Tesla is they have e-motors with no clunky gears in a transmission, Teslas got no dinosaur transmissions, no dinosaur
crankshafts, far fewer mechanical parts and far fewer things that break.
Shift away, shifting is for dinosaurs!
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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Salsa
Nomad
Posts: 174
Registered: 2-4-2003
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Not to stir up any more BS, but,,,
Where does the juice to fill up the batteries come from ???
Don
BSEE
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18438
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
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Mood: Hot n spicy
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Quote: Originally posted by Salsa  | Not to stir up any more BS, but,,,
Where does the juice to fill up the batteries come from ???
Don
BSEE |
2019 electric generation data for California utilities:
32% renewable
34% natural gas
9% nuclear
14% hydro
California's non-carbon dioxide emitting electric generation categories (nuclear, large hydroelectric, and renewables) accounted for 57 percent of its
generation
Woke!
“...ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” “My fellow citizens of the world: ask not what America
will do for you, but what together we can do for the freedom of man.”
Prefered gender pronoun: the royal we
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Salsa
Nomad
Posts: 174
Registered: 2-4-2003
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And all of this time they were telling me that nuclear was BADDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don
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RFClark
Super Nomad
Posts: 2462
Registered: 8-27-2015
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Mood: Delighted with 2024 and looking forward to 2025
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I’m coming to this discussion late. What follows is some history to show that I’ve actually done some of this!
I’ve driven IC cars, trucks, boats and planes since I was 15 1/2! I’ve also lived off the grid a lot since the mid ‘70s. First with gasoline
generators as the only source of electricity, then with propane as the source of backup electricity. Where we lived 2 years ago is still running on a
big SCE diesel generator generator since the fires last year!
Currently we have a US grade electric house (12 years) in Mexico south of San Felipe that is primarily solar electric. We started out here with an RV
gas generator 30 years ago. Solar Electric has come along way in the last 20 years.
Currently we are using li ion batteries for our primary electrical storage. All are recycled from other uses mostly cars. We still have a backup
propane generator and 300 gal of propane. The house uses about 10KW of electricity per day this time of year. Heating is propane because the propane
tank holds about 2.5MW of heat energy in the same space as 20KW of il ion batteries! That’s 100 times the storage density and propane never goes bad
like batteries or gasoline!
Our water truck is a propane powered 1964 Dodge 4x4, we refill the tank about once a year! It only uses electricity to start and run the transistor
ignition. I can maintain it myself, but can’t make the parts or fuel.
I built and can maintain the house, but can’t make the spare parts for that either. “Do you have a spare means that I probably can’t fix this
one” comes to mind here!
On to electric cars! We have a Spark EV ($7K used) up in the states. It goes about 80 miles on 16KW of batteries. I can make electricity to charge it.
I can’t make gas or propane! Our runabout truck in Mexico gets 40Mpg. On a full tank and two Jeep cans it will drive to La Paz! I still can’t make
the gas! Electric will replace gas/propane for 75% of all driving over the next 20 yeas. It’s all about energy storage density!
The point is without spare parts and fuel eventually everything technical will stop working! It’s just a matter of when! The Spark EV will likely
operate until the tires wear out (I can’t make those either!) I’d guess that’s about 4 years after all the gas and propane runs out!
I can’t make small arms or ammunition either so I keep lots in stock in the states! (Shelf life about 25 years)
Arguing about which sort of magic is better is stupid and if you can’t make it, it’s Magic!
At this point it’s necessary to mention “Murphy”! The quick green fix of the environment just met Murphy! 300 or in the Dakotas 1200 gals of
propane(yes, you need to heat propane to use it in really cold weather!) is a real comfort when things go to chit! Make sure that your heater is
non-electric with a gas pilot though!
Murphy is God’s appointed enforcer! Everything that can go wrong, will go wrong just when it will hurt you the most! Think snow on the Gulf of
Mexico here!
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white whale
Nomad
Posts: 158
Registered: 12-15-2015
Location: canada
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What a great thread.
For the OP though, whenever I see a statement of X will happen past three years from the present a large grain of salt is required. Gov'ts are famous
for those plans, and its always a nice number , never 2044 or 61. Just 5's and zeros. Back of the napkin plans as they are referred to. ICE dead? No.
Fading away slowly, definitely.
Much as I hate sending money to Saudi and ilk to use slaves to build malls in the desert they will make sure the ICE fade takes a long time.
Reminds me of the Simpsons episode at the local dump, all the VHS tapes in a huge pile and next to was a sign "reserved for DVD's". Maybe EV is just a
stop gap the early tech adopters are having fun with now and some other technology , cheaper, faster safer etc... is coming to the market next.
Like everything else in the world, you vote with your wallet.
This ain't no party, this ain't no disco, this ain't no foolin' around Life During Wartime
- Talking Heads '79
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RFClark
Super Nomad
Posts: 2462
Registered: 8-27-2015
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Mood: Delighted with 2024 and looking forward to 2025
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“ Like everything else in the world, you vote with your wallet.”
Yes, currently our EV turns a nice profit on the mileage deduction. That said a Hydrogen economy is probably the general direction to head towards. IC
engines do run on hydrogen, but have problems with water getting into the oil! Fuel cells work too and you can make hydrogen at home! Super capacitors
have made great progress and could replace batteries in some applications.
That said Futurists have a poor track record! Ridley Scott not Sid Mead designed the police cruisers in “Blade Runner”! Ridley saw the first
cruiser and said “lots more lights”! Seen a police car lately? He also said “lots more neon” (no LED lights back then!) been to Vegas lately?
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PaulW
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3078
Registered: 5-21-2013
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Of course there are not enough batteries to satisfy the GM plan let alone the industry plan. GM admits that a battery breakthrough must happen many
years before they reach meaningful production rate.
Yes, new technology is in study and prototypes have been built. It is all about getting away from the limited supply of lithium to more common
elements.
Hydrogen is another way that has no infrastructure planned.
My solution is backup fossil fuel which they have recently discovered for the electrical grid. Green energy does not work when it is cold and snowy
when the power is needed the most.
Probably hybrid will have to do rather than EVs.
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John Harper
Super Nomad
Posts: 2289
Registered: 3-9-2017
Location: SoCal
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| Quote: Originally posted by PaulW |
My solution is backup fossil fuel which they have recently discovered for the electrical grid. Green energy does not work when it is cold and snowy
when the power is needed the most. |
A reliable storage medium is the only thing needed to provide reliable power from wind and solar. Liquid salt and other technologies to store heat on
a massive scale is one promising technology. Then, just turn that heat into power using steam turbines, just like nuclear power plants do.
In Texas, most of the conventional energy (oil/gas) valves and pipes froze as well, making that source of energy as useless as others. You really
can't blame wind and solar power for unforeseen cold events. Maybe now we should design the energy grids for these potential freeze events happening
in warmer climates? IDK.
John
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PaulW
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3078
Registered: 5-21-2013
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Hey John Nuclear work and don't freeze and do not screw up the air so much.
Yes, salt storage works if the power source is not covered with snow or ice. Or at least if the storage is big enough to get past the weather cycle.
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RFClark
Super Nomad
Posts: 2462
Registered: 8-27-2015
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Mood: Delighted with 2024 and looking forward to 2025
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John,
Actually you can blame the solar and wind farm operators. Heaters and anti icing coatings cost $$$ and can use 20% of the output. They’re in it for
the profit just like the gas companies!Remember Solyndra? Their sales pitch was the round tube their solar cells were in wouldn’t build up ice and
snow! They cost more, produced less and took up extra space!
Actually, pumping water uphill when you have electricity and letting it flow back downhill when you need electricity is simpler, unlike molten salt
you can drink the water. DWP in LA does that between castiac lake and pyramid lake. They used to have 3 very large megawatt pump/generators at castiac
lake and were talking about adding more.
Difficult to do out in the great flatlands though. Australia and other flat places use megawatt sized storage batteries.
New Nuclear Technology works too!
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Don Pisto
Banned
Posts: 1282
Registered: 8-1-2018
Location: El Pescador
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Mood: weary like everyone else
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new geothermal being studied.....
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-technology-could-tran...
there's only two things in life but I forget what they are........
John Hiatt
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PaulW
Ultra Nomad
Posts: 3078
Registered: 5-21-2013
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Show us the energy balance for a power reactor. Do you really think heat is wasted? I guess the turbines do not us the heat?
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