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bigmike58
Nomad
Posts: 286
Registered: 1-20-2012
Location: Homeland CA/Mulege
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Mood: Fish on!
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The actual storm track has moved more to the west/offshore. Let's hope the westerly track continues.
Shouldn\'t one have to pass a urine test to get a welfare check or Sec.8 housing?
........... I had to pass one to earn it for them!
\"I\'ve now been in 57 states? I think one left to go?\"
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micah202
Super Nomad
Posts: 1615
Registered: 1-19-2011
Location: vancouver,BC
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bigmike58
The actual storm track has moved more to the west/offshore. Let's hope the westerly track continues. |
...yes,,that's a good reminder that the forecasts aren't locked-in-stone,,,anything can change,,,either way!
...I have a feeling that the image below will soon update from the 8amEDT time showing currently
[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202]
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mtgoat666
Select Nomad
Posts: 18130
Registered: 9-16-2006
Location: San Diego
Member Is Offline
Mood: Hot n spicy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by micah202
| Quote: | Originally posted by bigmike58
The actual storm track has moved more to the west/offshore. Let's hope the westerly track continues. |
...yes,,that's a good reminder that the forecasts aren't locked-in-stone,,,anything can change,,,either way!
...I have a feeling that the image below will soon update from the 8amEDT time showing currently
[Edited on 9-4-2014 by micah202] |
the maps are just scattershots of model runs. read the discussion for interpretation of the models....
HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014
800 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014
Norbert has become a little better organized overnight, with the
TRMM and AMSR2 microwave sensors indicating that the low- and
mid-level centers have become more vertically aligned. The cyclone
is still experiencing northeasterly shear though, given the
asymmetric shape on the latest satellite images. Dvorak intensity
estimates are all near 75 kt, so that will used as the initial wind
speed. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to
investigate Norbert, and should provide a more precise estimate of
its intensity.
While moderate shear has been affecting the cyclone, it has not
been strong enough to prevent slow strengthening. Although the
shear is not forecast to change much over the next few days,
Norbert is expected to move into an environment characterized by
cooler SSTs and drier, more stable air. These negative factors
should cause some weakening on Friday, with a more significant
downward trend anticipated by late this weekend. The latest NHC
forecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast
and the intensity consensus. Norbert should become a remnant low in
about 4 days due to it moving over very cool waters west of Baja
California.
The track of Norbert has been quite erratic over the past 24 hours,
but a 12-hour motion still appears to be northwestward at about 6
kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain over northwestern
Mexico, keeping Norbert on the same general course during the next
few days, offshore of Baja California. At long range, model
guidance remains divergent on how much of a northward turn that
Norbert will take due to a mid-latitude trough weakening the ridge.
The 3-5 day track also partially depends on the intensity at that
time range, with a deeper system probably moving farther west, more
like the ECMWF solution. Since there has not been much change to
the overall guidance, the new NHC forecast is about the same as the
previous one, and remains relatively close to the dynamical model
consensus.
Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being
advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across
northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could
result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these
areas during the next few days. Please see information from your
local weather office for more details.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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Just got back from town after stocking up for what ever comes in the next month.
Norbert is REALLY confused. I wouldn't but money on it's path.
It's still really windy here average around 20mph but lots of gust 25+ Thin layer of clouds now.
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Raining pretty good right now. From the dog bowls, I would say that we have had about an inch, maybe a little more
winds out of the east(?), gusting to 10knots max. I put a question mark because the forecasts call for out of the SSE. I believe that means that, in
fact, Norbert is not as close as they thought it would be.
[Edited on 9-4-2014 by bajajudy]
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Apparently San Lucas is getting some wind. A picture was posted in Facebook of the Chileno beach signs blown over.
Still not much here as far as wind... A few more gusts
Just checked our anemometer...it is showing steady 10mph, with gusts to 15.
Getting dark again.
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karenintx
Senior Nomad
Posts: 538
Registered: 3-16-2008
Location: CSL
Member Is Offline
Mood: Living The Dream
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| Quote: | Originally posted by bajajudy
Apparently San Lucas is getting some wind. |
We are having on & off rain showers with some wind...no problems for us yet but I am sure folks in town are experiencing more than us.
We are on the east side of the bay. The arroyo must be running pretty fast or it looks that way from the webcam...
http://www.meteosurfcanarias.com/webcams/new/beach-cams-prov...
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Mula
Super Nomad
Posts: 1655
Registered: 8-16-2011
Location: San Nicolas y Lopez Mateos
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First wind/rain squall has just come in to Lopez just now.
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
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Wind in Mulege has increased, still from the south-west.
La Paz update: Daughter just posted a photo on FB. La Paz is raining-- university classes cancelled!
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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BajaBlanca
Select Nomad
Posts: 13195
Registered: 10-28-2008
Location: La Bocana, BCS
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hot humid and ever so slight breeze here on the Pacific. No clouds. We were told to expect rain today but only time will tell.
Buckle down anyways everyone!
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Howard
Super Nomad
Posts: 2353
Registered: 11-13-2007
Location: Loreto/Manhattan Beach/Kona
Member Is Offline
Mood: I'd rather regret the things I've done than regret the things I haven't done.
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Loreto:
As of 3:17 it just started to rain with off and on wind. It's been coming down pretty good for the last 1/4 hour.
We don't stop playing because we grow old;
we grow old because we stop playing
George Bernard Shaw
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elizabeth
Senior Nomad
Posts: 742
Registered: 7-30-2004
Location: Loreto, BCS
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And now at 3:25, very light! At least in Colonia Centro! Could change quickly.
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Russ
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6742
Registered: 7-4-2004
Location: Punta Chivato
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after my 10:26 post the wind increased with out a let up. 25mph average now with many gusts over 35mph. High gust 37 so far. I can't remember wind
this strong and lasting so long and almost no clouds. Too strange
Bahia Concepcion where life starts...given a chance!
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monoloco
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6667
Registered: 7-13-2009
Location: Pescadero BCS
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Currently, the barometric pressure is 29.56 and falling, no wind, and light rain.
We've received .39 inches of rain today.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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shari
Select Nomad
Posts: 13047
Registered: 3-10-2006
Location: bahia asuncion, baja sur
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Mood: there is no reality except the one contained within us "Herman Hesse"
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laundry report...all dry with blue skies and 15 knots of wind from the NW with a swell building by the hour. Pangas are being beached...again.
supposed to rain here a tad tomorrow but looks like Norbert is being a good boy for now.
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danaeb
Senior Nomad
Posts: 991
Registered: 11-13-2006
Location: San Diego; El Centenario
Member Is Offline
Mood: groovy
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La Paz:
For all the Paceņos who aren't there but want to see what's happening, here's a link to a webcam on the malecon (facing west).
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-la-paz.html
Experience enables you to recognize a mistake every time you repeat it.
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bajajudy
Elite Nomad
Posts: 6886
Registered: 10-4-2004
Location: San Jose del Cabo,BCS
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Steady 20-25, gusts to 35
Rain
Barometer..29.4. Funny I had forgotten we had one. Used to be the only way to tell if a storm was coming. Back in the dark ages before the
internet.
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Bill Collector
Nomad
Posts: 374
Registered: 1-13-2004
Location: Buena Vista, BCS
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We lost power at 12:30,still on generator at 5:00.. Rain gauge showing 3 1/2 inches so far. The rain has not let up all day, some time very heavy
others gentle. No wind, little wave action out of the East
[Edited on 9-4-2014 by Bill Collector]
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bledito
Nomad
Posts: 420
Registered: 7-6-2013
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any pics of buena vista/los barilles? Are the arroyo's running? How is the new concrete road across the arroyo holding up?
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Mulegena
Super Nomad
Posts: 2412
Registered: 11-7-2006
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Mulege Laundry List, 5 pm.
Clouds have come in from Lopez/San Juanico but... the clothes are still dry.
Sky is clabbering up but still blue patches. Not too hot and NOT humid!! Gasp! No rain here yet, but we're ready. Ricardo is speaking with his uncle
up in La Purissima as what happens there affects the Mulege river valley. He says a few drops of rain up on the hills but no get-down rain. The
hurricane has slowed in it's path... so we wait.
"Raise your words, not your voice. It's rain that grows flowers, not thunder." ~Rumi
"It's the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." ~ Aristotle
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