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Author: Subject: EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
David K
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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:24 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by rts551
Quote:
Originally posted by David K
Quote:
Originally posted by BajaLuna


DavidK: You say there is not currently a water problem in SD, and although I understand you got that from good authority, but who in their right mind believes that load of crap, of course there IS a problem, perhaps it isn't an emergency at this point, but it will be if they keep doing what they've been doing IE: not getting serious about it NOW. It just makes sense to me to prepare for it, Crisis governing is not the answer, and in my mind if they started now with odd/even days for watering then perhaps they can avoid a bigger problem down the road. When we lived there we were not inconvenienced whatsoever with the rationing, my garden still got watered just fine. pee poor planning is not acceptable, they need to get their heads out of the sand and plug into reality! What are they waiting for?


I am trying to be clear, but I know we all hear things differently... let me try once more...

It was asked if we here in San Diego area were on restricted water use (odd/ even days).

I answered with what was told to us by the water authority: NO we are not BECAUSE the water sources for us are NOT in that bad of shape (yet).

This is NOT my personal belief, politics or otherwise... It was on the news and answered the question if we were on rationing like a few years ago...


I believe you said local sources. You are no longer disputing that 80% of the water is imported? And generally,,, when someone says something, do you verify that it is factual?


wow, I see why the idiots in charge get re-elected sometimes...

RALPH: I repeated what was said on the news. I NEVER disputed anything about where the water comes from. Our San Diego local sources are not stressed to require rationing is what was said... do you hear me amigo???




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:28 AM


Exactly Whale-ista....And that's my opinion about all of this argument too...what does it reallllly matter in the grand scheme of things if it is valid or not...we can argue about that until the cows come home but we are loosing the more important message...and that is that we need to prepare..we need to make changes plain and simple...and we need to stick together to make those changes....community togetherness is what will save us! We need to get resourceful, we need to rely on our own ingunity, support our cottage industries, become more self-sufficient, and we need to pull our heads out of the sand and wake up. Nobody is going to save us but ourselves and each other! The people in power aren't looking out for us! As long as they Politicians have theirs, they won't care if you have yours! This is exactly why nothing ever gets done, people are more concerned with being right, trying to prove their argument and in a nutshell being so attached to their "rightness" that it detours us in getting anything done.

hence why I chose not to partake in the discussion in this thread in regards to global warming....it doesn't matter WHY it's happening. Don't get lost in the argument of why it is happening and instead tune into the importance of where we go from here and what each of us can do!




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:33 AM


DavidK, I was not implying that YOU agree with the authorities or not, just that it's a load of crap for those in power not to think there is a problem, sorry if I didn't make that clear, not saying you agree with the authorities. You answered my question, just fine!



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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:36 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BajaLuna
Exactly Whale-ista....And that's my opinion about all of this argument too...what does it reallllly matter in the grand scheme of things if it is valid or not...we can argue about that until the cows come home but we are loosing the more important message...and that is that we need to prepare..we need to make changes plain and simple...and we need to stick together to make those changes....community togetherness is what will save us! We need to get resourceful, we need to rely on our own ingunity, support our cottage industries, become more self-sufficient, and we need to pull our heads out of the sand and wake up. Nobody is going to save us but ourselves and each other! The people in power aren't looking out for us! As long as they Politicians have theirs, they won't care if you have yours! This is exactly why nothing ever gets done, people are more concerned with being right, trying to prove their argument and in a nutshell being so attached to their "rightness" that it detours us in getting anything done.

hence why I chose not to partake in the discussion in this thread in regards to global warming....it doesn't matter WHY it's happening. Don't get lost in the argument of why it is happening and instead tune into the importance of where we go from here and what each of us can do!


True, but remember that historically these "climate changes" have taken 100's of thousands to millions of years to happen, so I don't think we want to over-react and disrupt and/or destroy the economies of the world by Govt. edicts and regulations that will cost us a fortune prematurely.

Our individual preparations are GREAT, tho, I agree, and THAT we can do NOW---------!

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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:38 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by BajaLuna
DavidK, I was not implying that YOU agree with the authorities or not, just that it's a load of crap for those in power not to think there is a problem, sorry if I didn't make that clear, not saying you agree with the authorities. You answered my question, just fine!


Thanks... the problem is more human caused and that is not from normal activities, but instead from government creating drama.

Have a great day!




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:42 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista

I completely agree that what we are seeing is "natural" and has happened many, many times before. The difference is: what happens now has an impact on human design on a scale not experienced before, and causes expensive and at times dangerous situations to occur.

So, IMHO, it doesn't matter why this is happening, but it makes sense to plan accordingly to avoid expensive/dangerous situations from harming people as we go forward.



I really must say something about these statements.

To say that 8 billion people living on this planet have no affect on it's properties is ridiculous. What is "natural' about it? Natural is their absence. Perhaps the definition of 'natural' should be examined. Regardless of that it is completely obvious that that amount of mankind is going to have an imprint.

And to simply accept this and recommend adjusting to the problems that arise is just avoiding (or denying) the causes itself. Another words, to say this is natural feeds right into the argument that they don't exist at all.
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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:51 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista

I completely agree that what we are seeing is "natural" and has happened many, many times before. The difference is: what happens now has an impact on human design on a scale not experienced before, and causes expensive and at times dangerous situations to occur.

So, IMHO, it doesn't matter why this is happening, but it makes sense to plan accordingly to avoid expensive/dangerous situations from harming people as we go forward.



I really must say something about these statements.

To say that 8 billion people living on this planet have no affect on it's properties is ridiculous. What is "natural' about it? Natural is their absence. Perhaps the definition of 'natural' should be examined. Regardless of that it is completely obvious that that amount of mankind is going to have an imprint.

And to simply accept this and recommend adjusting to the problems that arise is just avoiding (or denying) the causes itself. Another words, to say this is natural feeds right into the argument that they don't exist at all.


Thank you :):) .... and I'm not in charge of anything :lol::lol:

[Edited on 3-14-2014 by wessongroup]




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 11:52 AM


Quote:
Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista

I completely agree that what we are seeing is "natural" and has happened many, many times before. The difference is: what happens now has an impact on human design on a scale not experienced before, and causes expensive and at times dangerous situations to occur.

So, IMHO, it doesn't matter why this is happening, but it makes sense to plan accordingly to avoid expensive/dangerous situations from harming people as we go forward.



I really must say something about these statements.

To say that 8 billion people living on this planet have no affect on it's properties is ridiculous. What is "natural' about it? Natural is their absence. Perhaps the definition of 'natural' should be examined. Regardless of that it is completely obvious that that amount of mankind is going to have an imprint.

And to simply accept this and recommend adjusting to the problems that arise is just avoiding (or denying) the causes itself. Another words, to say this is natural feeds right into the argument that they don't exist at all.


SkipJack---------the "8 billion" are already here, and growing. Nothing seems to be stopping or influencing that other than China's edicts on birth control. Shouldn't we as INDIVIDUALS start doing what we can to mitigate and deal with this growing problem, rather than just pontificate (which I too am guilty of) about it?

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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 12:00 PM


Some tried Barry, but, it always fell on "deaf ears" ... anyone remember "Zero Population Growth" ....

About the only thing that came out of that ...... small birth numbers of informed people having children ... which ended up being negative overall ... go figure

But, perhaps ... EL NIÑO and other changes in ocean currents will do what "thinking" people can't .... slow the population of the World

Lets see, who's the "Gate Keeper" on this one ... :biggrin::biggrin:

To bad I'll miss 16 Billion ... should be a real treat

[Edited on 3-14-2014 by wessongroup]




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 12:13 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by wessongroup
Some tried Barry, but, it always fell on "deaf ears" ... anyone remember "Zero Population Growth" ....

About the only thing that came out of that ...... small birth numbers of informed people having children ... which ended up being negative overall ... go figure

But, perhaps ... EL NIÑO and other changes in ocean currents will do what "thinking" people can't .... slow the population of the World

Lets see, who's the "Gate Keeper" on this one ... :biggrin::biggrin:

To bad I'll miss 16 Billion ... should be a real treat

[Edited on 3-14-2014 by wessongroup]


Actually THAT fact is what I am talking about, Wiley. Until INDIVIDUALS take on the responsibility of changing what THEY do, nothing will change for the better. Govt. is helpless unless folks willingly cooperate with the intent, and change THEIR personal behavior. It that does not happen, I fear that the problem is hopeless. As always, it all boils down to INDIVIDUALS being responsible for their actions, and the consequences, IMO.

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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 12:38 PM


You are ignoring the point, Barry. It's not whether 8 billion are there or not, but whether they are affecting the earths's climate or not. The enlightened ones accept the impact and are looking for ways to lighten it, others simply deny it claiming it's a political hoax of some sort <rolleyes>.

But even if you know absolutely zero about global climates and factors that affect them it stands to simple reason that 8 billion people can't simply exist on earth without any footprint. I am amazed at the endless arguments about something that is completely obvious.
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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 12:50 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
You are ignoring the point, Barry. It's not whether 8 billion are there or not, but whether they are affecting the earths's climate or not. The enlightened ones accept the impact and are looking for ways to lighten it, others simply deny it claiming it's a political hoax of some sort <rolleyes>.

But even if you know absolutely zero about global climates and factors that affect them it stands to simple reason that 8 billion people can't simply exist on earth without any footprint. I am amazed at the endless arguments about something that is completely obvious.


I did not mean to "ignor" it----I just took it for granted in this case that most here simply know the truth, and that it lies somewhere inbetween the extreme views and positions. In what you say here, you are right, of course. Given that, now what? To me, Whale-ista and others are just taking all that as reality, and moving on to solutions that THEY can control, and make a difference.

I think we are thinking along similar lines, but having said that, we differ in our acceptance of the existing "science" and what we think we should do with that info, and the problem or climate change in general. To me, the population problem is another issue, and problem, but agree it is a HUGE problem.

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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 01:14 PM


An Amazon forest die off will generate more CO2 by factors than all the CO2 released by mankind since Lucy walked the earth. And it has happened.

When extremists scream at each other the truth is often found somewhere in the middle.

Careless and stupid polluting is illogical.

So is mandating 15 PPM diesel fuel when gasoline has 40 or more PPM.

And people wondered why "I bailed out". Thank you for reassuring me my rationale was if anything vastly understated.

[Edited on 3-14-2014 by DavidE]




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 01:19 PM


I'm not saying I do or don't believe in global warming, I just feel we can get so lost in debating it, the back and forth banter, and the arguments of things... that it distracts us from the bigger picture. It's all about where we want to put our energy...into the argument or doing something? Although reading about everyone's ideas, solutions for the sunshine state which sustains so many people, where the water is coming from, and the farmer's issues etc...I am finding all of that so fascinating...all of that discussion is so very important, helpful and interesting!

I'm just a preparer I guess, even when I lived in SoCal I stored water and food, helloo we lived in earthquake territory and yet others don't see the importance of it until of course they are in crisis...and even then they will likely go back to their old ways of not being prepared when the crisis has a bandaid on it. Case in point when SD had that big emergency 3-4 years ago (trust me I'm not singling out SD, people everywhere are ill prepared for an emergency), Atm machines didn't work, gas lines were long and gas stations closing down, stores in disarray and not having enough and sold out on water...all my family and friends put messages on facebook about what can they do, they don't have water, they have no cash, banks are closed, etc etc etc...they were in high anxiety panic mode...and I just sat there scratching my head thinking you people live in earthquake territory and yet you don't even have milk jugs of water saved, WTH?

The State of California has put the message out there, they do a good job of it, they have an awesome website with lists of things to do and keep around the house in case of emergency, yet people fail to prepare. It's mind boggling!

What will people do if they can't just jump in their car and go down to their local store to buy food or water? We have all gotten so complacent. And we trust the people in power to solve it all for us???, and yet they are all looking out for their own agendas (the left and the right).

Preparedness, forward thinking, and getting out of our comfort zones is crucial.

Whether global warming is real or not, most people agree we seriously need to make changes. And progress IS going on little by little, so don't get me wrong there. I don't trust the Politicians to make ALL the changes necessary for us...and maybe they WILL make some good progress...but we simply can't rely on them making sound decisions to the water issues, history has shown us this, eh....but it really comes down to me and you in making sure our families are able to have water and eat in these unstable time we are living in. And support our small local non-corporate farmers too! They are the ones who have our backs!

This Winter my hubby has been studying how to do a cistern on a budget, not sure we will go this route at our place here in woods...but we are having fun learning about them and reading about what other people are doing! Anyone have any direct experience building one?

I don't think SoCal alone should go on odd/even rationing, heck do it everywhere...water is all interconnected!




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 02:42 PM


"water is all interconnected! "

This is a BIG ONE !! IMHO

Considering who and what is composed of "water"

[Edited on 3-14-2014 by wessongroup]




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 02:46 PM


oh yes, the population problem is a huge issue. We simply cannot keep using the resources so grossly. We gotta be more careful and not take more than we need and instead use things like solar, wind, and rainwater. But too many people (and corporations) have the mentality that it is every man for himself, the us vs them mentality...as long as I have mine who cares about you... and not the reality of hellooo we are all in this together.

Solutions, yes we need solutions! And people who want to have honest and heart-centered discussions about what we can all do about it.

absolutely, BarryA...we each need to take responsibility, we can only control what WE can control, we can only change our own behaviors to make things better and there is nobody going to save us, certainly not the governments. And we need to spread the word and help others transition into more sustainable living too! help one another! I love community working together and new forward thinking ideas! I hope to be involved with community gardens and such in Baja too! I dream of being a part of a farmer's market in BA and planting our entire backyard with a food garden! I have a lot to learn from the locals!

While others are bickering about things that wont matter squat in the grand scheme of things...meanwhile there is a strong and HUGE sustainable living movement out there they know nothing about nor care to know about. It's not a new movement...I've been in it since the 70's...yep it's been going on for yearssssss. And I've learned along the way...that some people will always just keep taking about the problems in their community and never look inward on how they are personally contributing to the problem nor how they can contribute to the solution, there are just some who want to blame everything and everyone else instead of thinking what they can do to lessen their own personal footprint. Sad but true!

In every group...there are always the talkers and those who sit on the sidelines criticizing...and then there are the doers who want to be a part of the solution, take action, and make changes happen!

sustainable living...it's where it's at, people.




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 02:52 PM


BajaLuna, you do make a lot of sense. Arguing about the presence or absence of global warming does seem to make less sense than dealing with more immediate problems. But I do think it's an important issue because we need to address the source with the problem not it's symptoms. Because otherwise there is no end to it.

It's kind of like the 'bad' carburetor I had in my old chevy. I replaced it 3 times because it was gummed up. It was only the 4th mechanic that discovered that there was some smog reducing valve that was not functioning properly and causing the carburetor to suck up air directly from the engine.

How many times have you received a diagnosis from a physician who you know is treating some symptom that you know in your heart is not the cause of your malady?

That's how I see the problems in California. We can add a dam here or reduce water there but that's being in a reactive mode. There is no end to it. It would be best to address the root of the problem. But if you just say that our situation is 'natural' then we're back at square one. Just my opinion.
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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 03:44 PM
You left out part of my post regarding:human impacts on climate change...


Quote:
Originally posted by Skipjack Joe
Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista

I completely agree that what we are seeing is "natural" and has happened many, many times before. The difference is: what happens now has an impact on human design on a scale not experienced before, and causes expensive and at times dangerous situations to occur.

So, IMHO, it doesn't matter why this is happening, but it makes sense to plan accordingly to avoid expensive/dangerous situations from harming people as we go forward.



I really must say something about these statements.

To say that 8 billion people living on this planet have no affect on it's properties is ridiculous. What is "natural' about it? Natural is their absence. Perhaps the definition of 'natural' should be examined. Regardless of that it is completely obvious that that amount of mankind is going to have an imprint.

And to simply accept this and recommend adjusting to the problems that arise is just avoiding (or denying) the causes itself. Another words, to say this is natural feeds right into the argument that they don't exist at all.


Skipjack Joe-
I don't mind engaging in a debate, but please read the entire post. I never said people have no impact on this. I also wrote this about climate change, current and past:

"What has changed since then is **the scale and scope of human activity that exacerbates the effect**. "

Maybe that wasn't clear, but I believe that many human activities are making what may have once been "normal" climate fluctuation much worse: this time, it's happening faster, for example, than previous changes, as shown in global samples of tree rings, ice core samples etc. from thousands of years ago that reflect rainfall, temperature variations etc.

I also wrote:
"Also, the fact humans have constructed cities, roads, housing, etc. based on certain temperature/climate/weather assumptions: sea/lake levels, storm intensity/duration/seasonality, availability of food, average temperature variation."

So while climate fluctuations are part of earth's history, what's been added are human activities and our reliance on things being relatively stable. When things change, they impact us in ways not seen in the past.

I'm certainly not trying to minimizing the problems or deny the causes, both planetary and human. I am suggesting we acknowledge that changes are happening, both for normal cyclical reasons with an added boost of human activity, and manage it by planning as best we can.

Hope that clarifies my original points. :)




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 04:55 PM


Quote:
Originally posted by Whale-ista
Agreed. And that's the value of scientific research: the information lives on even as researchers pass away.

Weather Records from Europe are available from the 1700s. Paleoclimatologists can gather historic data from tree rings, glacier ice, seabed sediment, pollen records and other indicators going back thousands of years. By correlating their results they can see various trends over time.

All of these long time records show climate variability very clearly. While it's true we've had other warming and cooling events this one is proceeding on a very different time scale.

It also has a wider bandwidth. The high temperatures are higher and the cold temperatures are colder. The drought is more severe in places, and the rainfall more extreme in others.

Storms are reaching places they normally would not. The impact on housing, roads, and other infrastructure is significant.

So while individuals only live at most one hundred years, the records they collect plus natural records are from a much longer timescale and are very informative.


Good point!




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[*] posted on 3-14-2014 at 05:06 PM


you know its nice to hear intelligent conversation about this rather than use it as a segue to push a political agenda from someone who's too stubborn to bend! don't ya think? carry on gentlemen.
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