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gnukid
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On climate, the Right is right – Global temperature update: the Pause is still 18 years 1 month
November 7, 2014
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
One of the most interesting statistics from the recent mid-terms was the New York Times’ exit poll (Fig. 1), showing that more than two-thirds of
“Democrat” voters thought climate change was a serious problem. Five-sixths of Republicans didn’t.
Figure 1. The New York Times’ exit poll showing the partisan divide on climate.
Put this interesting statistic with another interesting statistic: the growth in the CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. In 1988, the year
in which IPeCaC was founded and James Hansen first bleated about the imagined threat of “global warming” before Congress after Senator Tim Wirth had
had the air-conditioning turned off in the hearing room, the world emitted 22 million tonnes of CO2 a year.
In 2013, just 25 years later, 35 million tonnes of CO2 were emitted. For all the chatter about the need to cut CO2 emissions, for all the taxes and
fines and subsidies and profiteering, for all the pompous posturing at international grandstanding sessions and global gabfests, there is nothing to
show but a 50% increase in the world’s annual emissions of CO2.
If the world really thought global warming was a serious problem, it is not likely that so large an increase in the emission of the supposedly
dangerous (but actually innocuous and beneficial) trace gas CO2 would have been allowed to occur.
So, should anyone have been worried? On the data, the answer is No. Since October 1996 there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 2). This month’s
RSS temperature plot comes within a whisker of pushing up the period without any global warming from 18 years 1 month to 18 years 2 months: however,
on a strict interpretation the period without warming remains at 18 years 1 month. Within a month or two, the current weakish el Nino may begin to
influence global temperatures, shortening the Great Pause. However, if the el Nino is followed by a la Nina the Pause could lengthen again by late
next year – perhaps even in time for the Paris climate summit of December 2015, at which the next major attempt to introduce a global “government” on
the back of the climate scare will be made.
Figure 2. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global
warming for 18 years 1 month since October 1996.
The hiatus period of 18 years 1 month, or 217 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a
sub-zero trend.
Figure 3. Near-term projections of warming at a rate equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] K/century, made with “substantial confidence” in IPCC (1990),
January 1990 to October 2014 (orange region and red trend line), vs. observed anomalies (dark blue) and trend (bright blue) at less than 1.4 K/century
equivalent, taken as the mean of the RSS and UAH satellite monthly mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.
A quarter-century after 1990, the global-warming outturn to date – expressed as the least-squares linear-regression trend on the mean of the RSS and
UAH monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies – is 0.34 Cº, equivalent to just 1.4 Cº/century, or a little below half of the central estimate
in IPCC (1990) and well below even the least estimate (Fig. 3).
The Great Pause is a growing embarrassment to those who had told us with “substantial confidence” that the science was settled and the debate over.
Nature had other ideas. Though more than 50 more or less implausible excuses for the Pause are appearing in nervous reviewed journals and among
proselytizing scientists, the possibility that the Pause is occurring because the computer models are simply wrong about the sensitivity of
temperature to manmade greenhouse gases can no longer be dismissed.
Remarkably, even the IPCC’s latest and much reduced near-term global-warming projections are also excessive (Fig. 4).
Figure 4. Predicted temperature change, January 2005 to October 2014, at a rate equivalent to 1.7 [1.0, 2.3] Cº/century (orange zone with thick red
best-estimate trend line), compared with the observed anomalies (dark blue) and zero real-world trend (bright blue), taken as the average of the RSS
and UAH satellite lower-troposphere temperature anomalies.
In 1990, the IPCC’s central estimate of near-term warming was higher by two-thirds than it is today. Then it was 2.8 C/century equivalent. Now it is
just 1.7 Cº equivalent – and, as Fig. 4 shows, even that is proving to be a substantial exaggeration.
On the RSS satellite data, there has been no global warming statistically distinguishable from zero for more than 26 years. None of the models
predicted that, in effect, there would be no global warming for a quarter of a century.
The Great Pause may well come to an end by this winter. An el Niño event is underway and would normally peak during the northern-hemisphere winter.
There is too little information to say how much temporary warming it will cause, though. The temperature spikes of the 1998, 2007, and 2010 el Niños
are evident in Figs. 1-4.
El Niños occur about every three or four years, though no one is entirely sure what triggers them. They cause a temporary spike in temperature, often
followed by a sharp drop during the la Niña phase, as can be seen in 1999, 2008, and 2011-2012, where there was a “double-dip” la Niña that is one of
the excuses for the Pause.
The ratio of el Niños to la Niñas tends to fall during the 30-year negative or cooling phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the latest of which
began in late 2001. So, though the Pause may pause or even shorten for a few months at the turn of the year, it may well resume late in 2015 . Either
way, it is ever clearer that global warming has not been happening at anything like the rate predicted by the climate models, and is not at all likely
to occur even at the much-reduced rate now predicted. There could be as little as 1 Cº global warming this century, not the 3-4 Cº predicted by the
IPCC.
Key facts about global temperature
Ø The RSS satellite dataset shows no global warming at all for 217 months from October 1996 to October 2014. That is more than half the 429-month
satellite record.
Ø The global warming trend since 1900 is equivalent to 0.8 Cº per century. This is well within natural variability and may not have much to do with
us.
Ø The fastest measured warming trend lasting ten years or more occurred over the 40 years from 1694-1733 in Central England. It was equivalent to 4.3
Cº per century.
Ø Since 1950, when a human influence on global temperature first became theoretically possible, the global warming trend has been equivalent to below
1.2 Cº per century.
Ø The fastest warming rate lasting ten years or more since 1950 occurred over the 33 years from 1974 to 2006. It was equivalent to 2.0 Cº per century.
Ø In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of near-term warming was equivalent to 2.8 Cº per century, higher by two-thirds than its current prediction
of 1.7 Cº/century.
Ø The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 Cº per century – half of what the IPCC had
then predicted.
Ø Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its high-end business as usual centennial warming prediction of 4.8 Cº
warming to 2100.
Ø The IPCC’s predicted 4.8 Cº warming by 2100 is well over twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than ten years that has been measured since
1950.
Ø The IPCC’s 4.8 Cº-by-2100 prediction is almost four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it
in 1950.
Ø From September 2001 to September 2014, the warming trend on the mean of the 5 global-temperature datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years 1 month.
Ø Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming. It is as simple as that.
Technical note
Our latest topical graph shows the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean lower-troposphere dataset for as far
back as it is possible to go and still find a zero trend. The start-date is not “cherry-picked” so as to coincide with the temperature spike caused by
the 1998 el Niño. Instead, it is calculated so as to find the longest period with a zero trend.
Terrestrial temperatures are measured by thermometers. Thermometers correctly sited in rural areas away from manmade heat sources show warming rates
appreciably below those that are published. The satellite datasets are based on measurements made by the most accurate thermometers available –
platinum resistance thermometers, which provide an independent verification of the temperature measurements by checking via spaceward mirrors the
known temperature of the cosmic background radiation, which is 1% of the freezing point of water, or just 2.73 degrees above absolute zero. It was by
measuring minuscule variations in the cosmic background radiation that the NASA anisotropy probe determined the age of the Universe: 13.82 billion
years.
The graph is accurate. The data are lifted monthly straight from the RSS website. A computer algorithm reads them down from the text file, takes their
mean and plots them automatically using an advanced routine that automatically adjusts the aspect ratio of the data window at both axes so as to show
the data at maximum scale, for clarity.
The latest monthly data point is visually inspected to ensure that it has been correctly positioned. The light blue trend line plotted across the dark
blue spline-curve that shows the actual data is determined by the method of least-squares linear regression, which calculates the y-intercept and
slope of the line via two well-established and functionally identical equations that are compared with one another to ensure no discrepancy between
them. The IPCC and most other agencies use linear regression to determine global temperature trends. Professor Phil Jones of the University of East
Anglia recommends it in one of the Climategate emails. The method is appropriate because global temperature records exhibit little auto-regression.
Dr Stephen Farish, Professor of Epidemiological Statistics at the University of Melbourne, kindly verified the reliability of the algorithm that
determines the trend on the graph and the correlation coefficient, which is very low because, though the data are highly variable, the trend is flat.
RSS itself is now taking a serious interest in the length of the Great Pause. Dr Carl Mears, the senior research scientist at RSS, discusses it at
remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures.
Dr Mears’ results are summarized in Fig. T1:
Figure T1. Output of 33 IPCC models (turquoise) compared with measured RSS global temperature change (black), 1979-2014. The transient coolings caused
by the volcanic eruptions of Chichón (1983) and Pinatubo (1991) are shown, as is the spike in warming caused by the great el Niño of 1998.
Dr Mears writes:
“The denialists like to assume that the cause for the model/observation discrepancy is some kind of problem with the fundamental model physics, and
they pooh-pooh any other sort of explanation. This leads them to conclude, very likely erroneously, that the long-term sensitivity of the climate is
much less than is currently thought.”
Dr Mears concedes the growing discrepancy between the RSS data and the models, but he alleges “cherry-picking” of the start-date for the
global-temperature graph:
“Recently, a number of articles in the mainstream press have pointed out that there appears to have been little or no change in globally averaged
temperature over the last two decades. Because of this, we are getting a lot of questions along the lines of ‘I saw this plot on a denialist web
site. Is this really your data?’ While some of these reports have ‘cherry-picked’ their end points to make their evidence seem even stronger, there
is not much doubt that the rate of warming since the late 1990s is less than that predicted by most of the IPCC AR5 simulations of historical climate.
… The denialists really like to fit trends starting in 1997, so that the huge 1997-98 ENSO event is at the start of their time series, resulting in a
linear fit with the smallest possible slope.”
In fact, the spike in temperatures caused by the Great el Niño of 1998 is largely offset in the linear-trend calculation by two factors: the not
dissimilar spike of the 2010 el Niño, and the sheer length of the Great Pause itself.
Replacing all the monthly RSS anomalies for 1998 with the mean anomaly value of 0.55 K that obtained during the 2010 el Niño and recalculating the
trend from September 1996 [not Dr Mears’ “1997”] to September 2014 showed that the trend values “–0.00 C° (–0.00 C°/century)” in the unaltered data
(Fig. 1) became “+0.00 C° (+0.00 C°/century)” in the recalculated graph. No cherry-picking, then.
The length of the Great Pause in global warming, significant though it now is, is of less importance than the ever-growing discrepancy between the
temperature trends predicted by models and the far less exciting real-world temperature change that has been observed.
IPCC’s First Assessment Report predicted that global temperature would rise by 1.0 [0.7, 1.5] Cº to 2025, equivalent to 2.8 [1.9, 4.2] Cº per century.
The executive summary asked, “How much confidence do we have in our predictions?” IPCC pointed out some uncertainties (clouds, oceans, etc.), but
concluded:
“Nevertheless, … we have substantial confidence that models can predict at least the broad-scale features of climate change. … There are similarities
between results from the coupled models using simple representations of the ocean and those using more sophisticated descriptions, and our
understanding of such differences as do occur gives us some confidence in the results.”
That “substantial confidence” was substantial over-confidence. For the rate of global warming since 1990 is about half what the IPCC had then
predicted.
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wessongroup
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"gives us some confidence in the results."
Global Warming Gas, Carbon Dioxide, Found To Affect Orbiting Satellites & Space Junk
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/12/global-warming-gas-...
This increase is 10 parts per million per decade faster than predicted by models of the upper atmosphere. Launching rockets into orbit does add carbon
dioxide to the atmosphere, but the scientists calculated that such launches would have deposited only about 2,700 metric tons of carbon into the upper
atmosphere between 2004 and 2012, while levels of COx apparently rose by about 20,000 metric tons in the upper atmosphere during that time.
Instead, the researchers suggest this increase was due to an unexpectedly large amount of mixing and circulation between the upper and lower layers of
the atmosphere. The investigators also noted this rise in carbon dioxide levels in the upper atmosphere might explain the surprising reduction they
have seen in atmospheric drag on satellites and space debris.
"The next challenge is to understand why the observed carbon dioxide trends are bigger than expected," Emmert said. "This requires the
application of sophisticated, whole-atmosphere models."
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by wessongroup]
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by wessongroup]
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by wessongroup]
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MitchMan
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gnukid, are you sure that your selected 18 year period is determinative and adequate to close your case because 97% of scientists (and probably more)
from around the world would disagree with you. If you are going to use stats and probabilities, you have to have meaningful time periods, otherwise,
you have nothing.
Your 18 year period and your other recent stats just aren't sufficient to negate the trend since, oh, 1750. Also, global warming is not just limited
to surface air temps, heat is absorbed by ice and snow and then it melts. Deep ocean waters also absorb heat.
I mean, just logically to illustrate the point, if air temps don't change, but deep water temps do increase because of absorption of heat and
quantities of glacier, ice caps and snow extents are anomalously shrinking because of meltage caused by their absorption of heat over relatively
recent times, such meltage further evidenced by rising sea levels, well, that takes more heat doesn't it? Global warming is not limited to warming of
the surface air temperature only. There are other things in other places that will store heat besides the air. Physics 101.
You wouldn't say that the summer didn't get hotter than the spring if you stayed inside your house and used your air conditioner to maintain 72 F.
Obviously, your a/c kept replacing the hot air in your house with air conditioned air by taking the warmer air, removing the heat, putting the cooled
air into your house and sending that excess extracted heat to the outside. The heat did increase and that increase of heat went some place else
(i.e., outside), just not inside your house...the a/c transferred the heat to a different location. The additional heat did occur and it is someplace
else, just not in your house.
Michael Savage? Please! I have listened to his shows many times. Talk about radical. The guy is a radical hack and you know it. Both positive and
negative reviewers of his book never say that the book is anything close to a legitimate treatise. The reviews, both pro and con reveal that the book
is simply more right wing ideological extremism (and everyone agrees Savage is extreme) and demagoguery than a serious objective piece of work. But,
I guess that is the best you can come up with.
Republicans don't trust 'people' at all, they only trust each other. Everybody knows that.
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wessongroup
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Good one, tends to go sideways quickly ... 
And the "genesis" .......... once again ... drum roll
Burning of petroleum products to achieve our current standard of living ... which is pretty damn good even considering the past ___X___ years
WE® humans just have to deal with it ...
It will be harder for some, than others, nothing is fair in life ... that doesn't even enter the decision making process, in most cases
Was told that once, Fair? who said it would be fair ... changed the way I looked at things
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by wessongroup]
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Ateo
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I think I've said this before, but NONE of this matters because Jesus is coming back soon.
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Bajaboy
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Ateo
I think I've said this before, but NONE of this matters because Jesus is coming back soon.
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And the Republicans took control....everything will be perfect now
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elgatoloco
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Ateo
I think I've said this before, but NONE of this matters because Jesus is coming back soon.
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He comes by my place weekly. He and his partner Pedro do a great job taking care of my landscaping. 
MAGA
Making Attorneys Get Attorneys
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monoloco
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| Quote: | Originally posted by elgatoloco
| Quote: | Originally posted by Ateo
I think I've said this before, but NONE of this matters because Jesus is coming back soon.
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He comes by my place weekly. He and his partner Pedro do a great job taking care of my landscaping. |
I know him quite well myself and he prefers to be called Chuy.
"The future ain't what it used to be"
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Skipjack Joe
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| Quote: | Originally posted by gnukid
One of the most interesting statistics from the recent mid-terms was the New York Times’ exit poll (Fig. 1), showing that more than two-thirds of
“Democrat” voters thought climate change was a serious problem. Five-sixths of Republicans didn’t.
Figure 1. The New York Times’ exit poll showing the partisan divide on climate.
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This alone should raise red flags for you. This breakdown should be identical in both parties. This shows that people are thinking with their hearts,
not with their heads. Therefore what the masses think on this subject can be totally ignored. It shows that the people are influenced by campaigns.
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Pompano
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| Quote: | Originally posted by Bajaboy
| Quote: | Originally posted by Ateo
I think I've said this before, but NONE of this matters because Jesus is coming back soon.
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And the Republicans took control....everything will be perfect now
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America can only hope for a change. But....wanna bet that the IIC won't play with the other kids?
(p.s. Life is way too serious to be taken seriously.)
As to Baja and the border..
Q: What does Barack Obama call illegal aliens?
A: Undocumented democrats.
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by Pompano]
I do what the voices in my tackle box tell me.
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Jack Swords
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Interesting site about Gnukid's selected source:
http://bbickmore.wordpress.com/lord-moncktons-rap-sheet/
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Jack Swords
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and so on...
http://hot-topic.co.nz/recursive-fraudery-monckton-goes-mad-...
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bufeo
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^^^Those are good reads, Jack. Thanks.
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grizzlyfsh95
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| Quote: | Originally posted by JoeJustJoe
Why isn't this thread in the OT?
If a forum member came to "BN" and said the Earth is flat. Would you take the time to try to convince then the Earth is really round, especially when
he is telling you to open your eyes, and you could see the Earth is flat.
It's a sphere. And no, I do not work for Exxon. And no, there are no global warming deniers, there are just people who do not think that the current
trend of the cooling/warming cycle is caused by Al Gores jets.
]
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by grizzlyfsh95] |
The harder I work, the luckier I get
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MitchMan
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Thanks, Jack. All I can say is... "WOW"!
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gnukid
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Interesting to note that after Monckton's talks and appearances by Gore, Australia voted to repeal carbon taxes.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/australia-repeals-carbon-tax-...
[Edited on 11-10-2014 by gnukid]
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Jack Swords
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Australia's repeal of the carbon tax had nothing to do with Monckton's talks and were simply politics. To imply otherwise is misleading.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/world/asia/environmentalis...
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Jack Swords
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and...
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/03/australias-hott...
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gnukid
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Jack, why not provide some context for your point of view, as opposed to making far flung personal attacks.
Show that human generated CO2 has demonstrated causal affect on global temperature if that is your opinion and primary point of discussion.
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Jack Swords
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Please don't take my postings as a personal attack, that is certainly not the intent. I have not been posting my opinion, simply contrary evidence to
other's postings that enhance the discussion. This is an important topic that deserves rational discussion, but absolutely not if folks infer a
personal agenda. That is not the case.
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